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Te-Chi Kuo Cheng-Yuan Huang Yu-Te Hung Min-Min Chen Po-Chieh Shih Date: April 24, 2012 1
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Introduction Macroeconomics Stock Market Prospect Industry Business Financial Analysis Competitors Comparable Analysis Financial projection Recommendation Agenda 2
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Introduction 3
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GICS Map: 25504040 (Specialty Stores) Current Price: $67.00 (4/23/2012’) P/E: 19.58 Forward P/E: 14.60 Market Cap: 8.41B 52wk Range: 56.21~84.49 Introduction 4
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Macroeconomics 5
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Macroeconomics– the U.S. 7
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Macroeconomics Source: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/ 8
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Stock Market Prospect - Diamond Price $21,000 38% Source: www.ajediam.com 9
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Stock Market Prospect - Gold Price 140% Source: http://www.kitco.com 10
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Revenue: 30.2B Annual Growth(11~16):3.1% Industry 11
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Industry 12
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Industry 13
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Barriers to Entry checklistLevel CompetitionHigh ConcentrationLow Life Cycle StageMature Capital IntensityMedium Technology ChangeLow Regulation & PolicyLight Industry AssistanceLow Industry Source: IBISWORLD 14
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Tiffany’s business was founded in 1837 by Charles Lewis Tiffany. Charles Lewis Tiffany incorporated Tiffany in New York in 1868. The Registrant (Tiffany & Co) acquired Tiffany in 1984 and completed the initial public offering of the Registrant’s Common Stock in 1987. Business - Overview Source: http://www.tiffany.com/ 15
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The Company’s principal product category is jewelry, which represented 91%, 91% and 90% of the Registrant’s net sales in 2011, 2010 and 2009. Business – Product Segment Source: 10-K 16
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Business – Sales Area 17
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Business – Sales Area 18
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The strategy to expand its worldwide store base, Tiffany & Co plans to add 24 Company-operated stores in 2012. Nine in the Americas, seven in Asia-Pacific, three in Europe and commence operations of five stores in Emerging Markets. Business – Management Strategy 19
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Retail Sales. Retail sales are transacted in Company-operated TIFFANY & CO. stores Internet Sales. The Company offers a selection of TIFFANY & CO. merchandise for purchase through website. Business-to-Business Sales. Products drawn from the retail product line and items specially developed are sold to business customers. Wholesale Distribution. Selected TIFFANY & CO. merchandise is sold to independent distributors for resale. Business – Business Models 20
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Business – Business Models 21
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Purchases of Polished Gemstones and Precious Metals. Gemstones and precious metals used in making Tiffany’s jewelry are purchased from a variety of sources The Company generally enters into purchase orders for fixed quantities with nearly all of its polished gemstone and precious metals vendors. Purchases and Processing of Rough Diamonds Tiffany purchases polished diamonds principally from five key vendors Some of Tiffany’s suppliers are Diamond Trading Company (“DTC”) sightholders), and it is estimated that a significant portion of the diamonds that Tiffany has purchased Tiffany has established diamond processing operations that purchase, sort, cut and/or polish rough diamonds for use by Tiffany. Tiffany must purchase mixed assortments of rough diamonds. Business – Suppliers and Purchase 22
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40% Outsource Manufacture The Company may increase the percentage of internally-manufactured jewelry in the future, but it is not expected that Tiffany will ever manufacture all of its needs. Factors considered by management in its decision to outsource manufacturing include product quality, gross margin, access to or mastery of various jewelry-making skills and technology, support for alternative capacity and the cost of capital investments. 60% Manufacture by Tiffany Tiffany produces jewelry and silver goods in New York, Rhode Island and Kentucky, and silver hollowware in New Jersey. Those manufacturing facilities produce approximately 60% of Tiffany merchandise sold. Business – Manufacture 23
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Conflict Diamonds. (Blood Diamonds) Tiffany has informed its vendors that the Company does not intend to purchase Zimbabwean-produced diamonds. Manufactured Diamonds Tiffany does not sell manufactured diamonds. Business – Rough Diamonds Source: MovieposterDB.com 24
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Tiffany has been the sole licensee for jewelry designed by Elsa Peretti and bearing her trademark since 1974. The designs of Ms. Peretti accounted for 10% of the Company’s net sales in 2011, 2010 and 2009. A written agreement exists between Ms. Peretti and Tiffany, but it may be terminated by either party following six months notice to the other party. Business – Designer License Source: http://www.tiffany.com/ 25
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Tiffany received from licensing agreements with Luxottica Group for the distribution of TIFFANY & CO. brand eyewear and with The Swatch Group Ltd. for TIFFANY & CO. brand watches. Business - Licensing Agreements 11/6/2015 The earnings received from these licensing agreements represented less than 1% of consolidated worldwide net sales in 2011, 2010 and 2009. Source: http://www.tiffany.com/ 26
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Driving Forces 1.Increase the percentage of internally- manufactured jewelry. 2.increase the number of stores 3.Diversify the business models 4.Make licensing agreements to third parties. Business 27
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Financial Analysis Asset breakdown 28
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Financial Analysis 29
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Financial Analysis 30
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Financial Analysis DuPont Analysis 31
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Competitor source: signet annual report, IBISWorld 32
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source: yahoofinance.com Competitor Relevant Stock Market 33
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Comparable Analysis 34
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Although Tiffany & Co., is the outlier in this industry, she still might be impacted by the following: Households earning over $100,000 Consumer sentiment index Per capita disposable income Marriage rate World price of gold External competition Financial projection - Projection under risks 35
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Growth Projection- Base Financial projection 36
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Discount rate for TIF Financial projection 37
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Put it in our watch list unless the price goes below $45 Recommendation 38
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Thanks for listening! Q & A 39
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