1. Northwest Power and Conservation Council Natural Gas Advisory Committee August 15, 2008

2. Northwest Power and Conservation Council Agenda Introductions Discussion of oil markets (Sam VanVactor) Recent fuel prices and proposed forecasts Peak deliverability of gas (Dan Kirschner) Estimation of monthly natural gas prices at western hubs

3. Northwest Power and Conservation Council Role of the Fuel Price Forecast Determine a range of possible long-term trends in fuel prices Commodity cycles around the trend and short-term volatility are added to the trends in the Portfolio Model analysis Commodity costs affect resource selection, generation cost, and price of electricity Retail prices affect demand for fuels and electricity (directly through competition, indirectly through cost of generation) Address supply and deliverability for power generation

4. Northwest Power and Conservation Council Fuel Price Forecasts Fifth Power Plan (Summer 2004) Revised Council Forecast (Sept. 2007) Proposed NGAC (Aug. 2008) Draft for Sixth Power Plan (Oct. 2008)

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6. Northwest Power and Conservation Council Natural Gas

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11. Northwest Power and Conservation Council Example risk treatment – natural gas prices

12. Northwest Power and Conservation Council Working Natural Gas Price Forecast (2006 $ Per MMBtu at Wellhead)

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14. Northwest Power and Conservation Council Total Delivery Costs Delivery PointsCosts in 2008 Sumas to Western OR/WA$.63 AECO to Eastern OR/WA$.59 Rockies to Southern ID$.62 AECO to Eastern MT$.77

15. Northwest Power and Conservation Council World Oil Prices

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19. Northwest Power and Conservation Council Working Crude Oil Price Forecasts (Imported RAQ in 2006 $ / Bbl.)

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23. Northwest Power and Conservation Council Coal Prices

24. Northwest Power and Conservation Council Source: EIA Spot Coal Prices April 05 To April 08

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27. Northwest Power and Conservation Council Working Coal Price Forecast (Powder River in 2000$/ MMBtu)