1. What has Statistics ever done for you? Peter T. Donnan Professor of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Statistics for Health Research

2. Contemplating statistical analysis

4. The power of collecting and analysing data “…..those who fell before Sebastopol were seven times the number who fell by the enemy” Mortality Statistics collected by Florence Nightingale, which led to a public outcry

5. What did statistics ever do for you? Uncovered unknown associations and likely causality: Smoking and lung cancer Uncovered unknown associations and likely causality: Smoking and lung cancer Efficacy of drug treatment: statins on cholesterol and mortality (WOSCOPS) Efficacy of drug treatment: statins on cholesterol and mortality (WOSCOPS)

6. What did statistics ever do for you? Clinical Decision Aids Prediction of risk: Cardiovascular (Framingham) Prediction of risk: Cardiovascular (Framingham) 55 yr-old woman 15-20% 5yr risk

7. What did statistics ever do for you? Statistical analysis usually required for demonstration of efficacy of medication Statistical analysis usually required for demonstration of efficacy of medication December 15 th, 1922 February 15 th, 1923 Discovery of Insulin

8. What statistics cannot do for you! ‘Fix’ results to give answer wanted ‘Fix’ results to give answer wanted Adjust for poor design: Adjust for poor design: biased sampling, biased sampling, sample too small, sample too small, no comparators no comparators

9. …….all that scientists are looking for is a quick fix without the encumbrance of a meaningful relationship (with statistics) Stephen Senn, 2003 The ubiquity of numbers

10. Most aspects of reality amenable to measurement or categorisation Quantitative methods provide powerful set of tools for summarising and drawing valid conclusions

11. All models are wrong, but some models are useful George Box Statistics as a tool to model reality

12. Detecting signal from background random noise

13. To Sum up Statistics is about - Design Design Decision in the face of Decision in the face of uncertainty uncertainty Evaluating evidence Evaluating evidence Dealing with chance Dealing with chance It is all-pervading in science but frequently misunderstood If you think statistics has nothing to do with you then you are wrong!

14. Objectives of Statistics Course Understand nature of data Understand nature of data Understand fundamental concepts in statistics Understand fundamental concepts in statistics Read data into SPSS Read data into SPSS Produce summary and descriptive statistics in SPSS Produce summary and descriptive statistics in SPSS Carry out simple tests using SPSS Carry out simple tests using SPSS Carry out regression in SPSS Carry out regression in SPSS

15. Experienced Statisticians in Health Research Simon Ogston Simon Ogston Adrian Hapca Adrian Hapca Nicosha De Souza Nicosha De Souza Thenmalar Vadiveloo Thenmalar Vadiveloo Huan Wang Huan Wang Simone Hapca Simone Hapca Petra Rauchhaus Petra Rauchhaus

16. Statistics Course Assume little knowledge of statistics Assume little knowledge of statistics Start with summarising and presenting data Start with summarising and presenting data Move on to drawing inference from numerical information and modelling Move on to drawing inference from numerical information and modelling

18. Finally http://my.dundee.ac.uk http://my.dundee.ac.uk Username: pgstatstudent Username: pgstatstudent Password: pgstat Password: pgstat

19. Contemplating statistical analysis