1. 1 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal Inside Science Norwich: September 30 th 2010 Inside Low Carbon Innovation: The Challenges Facing us Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv School of Environmental Sciences/ Norwich Business School: University of East Anglia

2. Global Overview – Climate Change Issues The UK situation: The Twin Challenges of Energy Security and Carbon Reduction Awareness Raising: Reducing demand and involving the community The UK’s current performance on the road to a Low Carbon Future. Inside Low Carbon Innovation: The Challenges Facing us 2

3. 3 Increasing Occurrence of Drought

4. 4 Increasing Occurrence of Flood

5. Increasing Incidence of Weather Related Disasters September 27 2010: News Flash Weather-related natural catastrophes are at an “exceptionally high” level this year, causing more than $65 billion of losses. There have been 725 weather-related catastrophes, the second- highest figure recorded for the first nine months of the year since 1980. About 21,000 people died in the disasters and insured losses totalled $18 billion. Bloomberg Press 5 Inside Low Carbon Innovation: The Challenges Facing us

6. 6 1979 2003 Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region NASA satellite imagery الصيف الجليد في القطب الشمالي تغطية المنطقة القطبيه ناسا الصور الفضاءيه Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.htmlhttp://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years 20 ٪ تخفيض في 24 سنوات تغير المناخ اثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب 1979 - 2003 6

7. Is Global Warming natural or man-made? Natural causes Earth’s Orbit Sunspot Activity Volcanic Eruptions Etc. Reasonable agreement up to ~ 1960 Man-made causes do not show particularly good agreement in early part of period. BUT including both man- made and natural gives good agreement

8. Current Energy Requirement AreaTotal DemandPopulationPer Capita World12.0 TW6000 M2.0 kW USA 3.0 TW 300 M10.0 kW Europe 2.0 TW 350 M5.7 kW UK 0.3 TW 60 M5.0 kW Practically Achievable: Renewable Energy:- 0.01 – 0.1TW - Tidal 0.1 – 1.0 TW - Geothermal; OTEC; Biomass; Wastes 1 -10TW - Hydro; Wind; Waves 10 -100TW – Solar The Future Population 9 – 10 billion? 1 TeraWatt (TW) = 1 billion kW Minimum~20TW Maximum~100TW Likely Range 30 – 40TW Life Span of Fossil Fuels Decades: Oil, Gas 235 U Tar Sands, Oil Shales Centuries: Coal, Geothermal, D-T Fusion 238 U, 232 Th Millenia: D – D Fusion Conservation is vital for a Sustainable Renewable Future in the Long Term Inside Low Carbon Innovation: The Challenges Facing us 8

9. Consumption of Oil is outstripping new finds 9

10. There is a looming Gas Shortage in the UK Import Gap On 13 th Jan 2010: UK Production was only 41%: 14% from storage and 44% imports 10

11. 11 Per capita Carbon Emissions UK How does UK compare with other countries? Why do some countries emit more CO 2 than others? What is the magnitude of the CO 2 problem? France 11

12. Carbon Factors for different modes of electricity generation In UK, Coal ~ 900 gms/kWh, oil ~ 800+ gms/kWh CCGT ~ 400 gms/kWh Nuclear ~ 10 gms/kWh: Overall ~ 520 – 530 gms/kWh 12

13. 13 Carbon Emissions and Electricity UK France 13

14. r Electricity Generation in selected Countries 14

15. Global Overview – Climate Change Issues The UK situation - The Twin Challenges of Energy Security and Carbon Reduction Awareness Raising: Reducing demand and involving the community The UK’s current performance on the road to a Low Carbon Future. Inside Low Carbon Innovation: The Challenges Facing us 15

16. 16 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (curently 40%) Available now (but is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher UK becomes net importer of gas in 2004 Langeled and Balzand Pipe Lines completed Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020

17. 17 Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018. Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (curently 40+%) Available now (but is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use methanolisation as a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s 17 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

18. Carbon Capture and Sequestration Could provide a solution for the medium / long term – i.e. 15+ years time Demonstration scheme in Germany 30 MW since 2008, China also has an operating 30 MW scheme UK Government hopes to have four 300 MW demonstration schemes operating by 2015/16 But UK has 59000MW of fossil fuel power stations – i.e. 600 times the demonstration schemes Will increase fossil fuel burn by 20 -40% - i.e. for every four power stations an extra is needed to support the CCS plant Will do little to help situation over next decade. Various methods potentially available pre combustion - removing nitrogen in air before combustion post combustion – separating CO 2 from other exhaust gases. 18

19. 19 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 – Onshore Wind 10 first generation turbines at Blood Hill have a total capacity of 2250 kW The single neighbouring turbine at Somerton – 1500 kW but generates much more electricity than the 10 combined. Swaffham 1 provides ON AVERAGE sufficient power for 900 homes. Latest generation are 3000 kW each

20. 20 Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 – Offshore Wind

21. 21 Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Hydro

22. 22 Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 400 sq km - But energy needed to make PV takes up to 10 years to pay back in UK. Solar PhotoVoltaic Electricty

23. 23 Mono - crystalline ~ 80 – 100 kWh / sqm / annum Thin film ~ 60 – 70 kWh / sqm / annum Poly - crystalline ~ 60 – 80 kWh / sqm / annum Typical test bed efficiencies 15 – 16% for mono-crystalline - theoretically up to 30%, but practical efficiencies after inversion in real situations ~ 10 – 12% Solar PhotoVoltaic Electricty 23

24. Peak Cell efficiency is ~ 9.5%. Average efficiency over year is 7.5% Mono-crystalline Cell Efficiency Poly-crystalline Cell Efficiency Peak Cell efficiency is ~ 14% and close to standard test bed efficiency. Most projections of performance use this efficiency Average efficiency over year is 11.1% Inverter Efficiencies reduce overall system efficiencies to 10.1% and 6.73% respectively Efficiency of Solar PhotoVoltaic Electricty 24

25. Overall Performance of Photo Voltaic Arrays in ZICER Inverters are only 91% efficient Most use is for computers DC power packs are inefficient typically less than 60% efficient An integrated approach is needed to ensure best performance 25

26. 26 Arrangement of Cells on Facade Individual cells are connected horizontally As shadow covers one column all cells are inactive If individual cells are connected vertically, only those cells actually in shadow are affected. Cells active Cells inactive even though not covered by shadow 26

27. 27 Photovoltaic cells are expensive, but integration of ideas is needed. Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year. The New Feed In Tariff form April 1 st will make things more attractive. 41p per unit generated – an extra 3p if exported. But those who have installed PV will get the benefit from increased payments for electricity by those who have not. Solar PhotoVoltaic Electricty 27

28. 28 Solar Energy Centralised Solar Power PS10 Solar Tower Seville, Spain 11 MW Capacity 28

29. 29 Biofuels/Biomass But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generate just over 5% of UK electricity needs. Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol? Compressed gas from methane from waste.

30. 30 Wave Energy Options for Electricity Generation There are numerous designs, but expertise in wave power is spread very thinly Pelamis

31. 31 Wave Energy Options for Electricity Generation Oyster Oyster under test at Bilia Croo 31

32. 32 Tidal Resource kW/m 2 <0.01 0.01 2.90 Resource is measured in terms of kW/m 2 of vertical column of water Tidal Energy – The Resource 32

33. 33 Tidal Stream Options for Electricity Generation

34. 34 Tidal Power – Barrage de la Rance, St Malo Vortices created during generation at La Rance The Sluice Gates One of 24 turbines 34

35. 35 Cardiff Newport Bristol Weston Minehead Beachley Barrage Shoots Barrage Cardiff – Weston Barrage Cardiff - Hinkley Barrage Minehead – Aberthaw Barrage Tidal Power – Some Proposed Schemes for the Severn 35

36. 36 Churchill Barrier each could provide Output 78 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south Save 40000 tonnes of CO 2 Tidal Barrage Options for Electricity Generation

37. 37 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Geothermal

38. 38 Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Our Choices: They are difficult

39. 39 If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on GAS for around 70% of our heating and electricity imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises. Our Choices: They are difficult

40. Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation We need an integrated energy supply which is diverse and secure. We need to take Energy out of Party Politics.! 40

41. 41 Involve the local Community -The BroadSol Project Annual Solar Gain 825 kWh Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at same time. Significantly reduced costs

42. Technical Solutions: Solar Thermal Energy Up to 15 installations were monitored at 5 miute intervals for periods up to 15 months Mean Monthly Solar gain for 11 systems Some 2 panel systems captured twice the energy in summer months as other 2 panel systems. 3 panel systems 42

43. 43 House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels - less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK! It is all very well for South East, but what about the North? House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February 43

44. 44 Effective Low Carbon Strategies requires Involving the local Community Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray. The Parish Kirk, and Community Centre are heated by heat Pumps partly powered by Wind Turbines Waste cooking oil from other islands is processed into biodiesel for farm and other vehicles. Ethanol used in process is obtained from fermentation of harvested sea weed 44

45. Global Overview – Climate Change Issues The UK situation - The Twin Challenges of Energy Security and Carbon Reduction Awareness Raising: Reducing demand and involving the community The UK’s current performance on the road to a Low Carbon Future. Inside Low Carbon Innovation: The Challenges Facing us 45

46. 46 How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

47. 47 Raising Awareness A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year) A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year. Filling up with petrol (~£50 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai 上海徐汇区高第一小学 A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2. School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

48. 48 Social Attitudes have a profound effect on actual electricity consumption For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER or COOKING] can vary by as much as 9 times. Data courtesy of Karla Alcantar Significant savings in money can arise from effective awareness raising When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times 48

49. Global Overview – Climate Change Issues The UK situation - The Twin Challenges of Energy Security and Carbon Reduction Awareness Raising: Reducing demand and involving the community The UK’s current performance on the road to a Low Carbon Future. Inside Low Carbon Innovation: The Challenges Facing us 49

50. Average Domestic Consumption of Electricity Raising awareness on energy use will save money UK average is 4478 kWh per year at a cost of around £530 Norwich average is 3535 kWh and is 6 th best out of 408 Councils Uttlesford average is 5884 kWh and is 396 th out of 408 NK Tovey’s average in a four bedroomed detached house is < 2250 kWh per year to 31 st March 2010 [50% of National Average] a reduction of 25% compared to on 18 months ago. On average Norwich – consumers will be paying 79% of National average Uttlesford – consumers will be paying 131% of National average 50

51. Average Domestic Consumption of Electricity kWh% costRank kWh% costRank Norwich3,53579%6Breckland5,028112%312 Cambridge4,05090%80 East Cambridgeshire 5,118114%326 Peterborough4,22294%116Forest Heath5,174116%336 Ipswich4,34997%159Babergh5,252117%343 Waveney4,41799%181South Norfolk5,347119%358 Broadland4,618103%231Suffolk Coastal5,371120%360 North Hertfordshire 4,645104%240 South Cambridgeshire 5,498123%374 Huntingdon4,655104%243North Norfolk5,641126%385 Great Yarmouth4,699105%252Mid Suffolk5,723128%390 St Edmundsbury 4,869109%280 King's Lynn and West Norfolk 5,731128%393 Fenland4,899109%287Uttlesford5,884131%396 Consumption of Electricity in selected Local Authority in East of England % cost compared to National Average Rank position in UK out of 408 Local Authorities In Norwich average household emits 1.9 tonnes of CO 2 In Uttlesford 3.1tonnes of CO 2 51

52. 52 MWh% renewables Bedford 35117013.70% UK Average (2008) 4.77% Norfolk 50326511.68% Target for 2007 / 08 7.9% Cambridge 44220210.15% Target for 2008/ 09 9.1% Essex 3652044.54% Target for 2010 10.40% Suffolk 1411033.71% Target for 2020 ~30% Hertfordshire 358600.69% Proportion of Electricity Generated by Renewables

53. 53 % renewables rank ex 408 Breckland 26292331.85%12 Great Yarmouth 15273930.00%16 Mid Suffolk 11148818.32%25 South Norfolk 340624.98%75 Broadland 182282.95%117 King's Lynn and West Norfolk 268412.54%129 Waveney 141301.86%148 North Norfolk 84721.27%181 St Edmundsbury 74531.04%189 Suffolk Coastal 75701.02%191 Babergh 4620.09%280 Forest Heath 00.00%315 Ipswich 00.00%315 Norwich 00.00%315 Proportion of Electricity Generated by Renewables

54. 54 1.33 billion people 0.94 billion people Raw materials 1.03 billion people Products: 478 Mtonnes CO 2 increase in 3 years Aid & Education The Unbalanced Triangular Trade Each person in Developed Countries has been responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO 2 emissions in goods imported from China in just 3 years Water issues are equally important. Each tonne of steel imported from a developing country consumes ~ 40 - 50 tonnes of water

55. Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher “ If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.” And Finally There are many exciting options for a sustainable low carbon energy system We need to address both the short term and long term objectives The UK is facing an energy security issue in the next decade There needs to be a much more integrated approach to energy supply Long term decision making is needed – longer than the life time of a Parliament We need to take Energy out of short term Party Politics Conclusions 55