1. Tropical Storm Erika Dan Noah NWS Ruskin daniel.noah@noaa.gov Download this and archived Webinar PPTs & PDFs at http://go.usa.gov/9ark http://go.usa.gov/9ark

2. Tropical Storm Erika Headlines Uncertainty on forecast track increase on Sunday Big impact on where rain and wind will be Consider wind speed probabilities before making decisions Are they going up or down? A 25% chance of Tropical Storm Force winds means a 1-in-4 chance Impacts of Tropical Storm Force winds

3. weather.gov/tampabay @NWSTampaBay@NWSTampaBay Location: 16.4 N 63.3 W or about 1,300 miles SE of Miami Location: 16.4 N 63.3 W or about 1,300 miles SE of Miami Max Sust Winds: 50 MPH Max Sust Winds: 50 MPH Central Pressure: 1006 MB Central Pressure: 1006 MB 29.71 IN 29.71 IN Movement: West at 16 MPH Movement: West at 16 MPH Find official hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic basin at: http://hurricanes.gov

4. Forecast Confidence Forecast Uncertainty Will Erika hook to the North?

5. Satellite Images Dry air ahead of Erika along with wind shear have weakened storm a bit

6. Impacts of Tropical Storm Force Winds 2 pm Wednesday8 am Thursday 10% 20% 30% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

7. Rain through 8 am Sunday Areal average, locally higher amounts Expect enhanced street flooding if rain falls near times of the above normal tides Sarasota to Fort Myers 6-8 inches 3-6 inches 1” 2-3 inches 5 Day Rainfall Totals day through day 0.5” 0.75” 1” 1” 1.25” 2.5” 2” 1.25” Fort Myers High Tides -Today at 2:27 pm -Friday at 4:07 am and 3:19 pm -Saturday at 4:36 am and 4:09 pm Sarasota High Tides -Today at 10:49 am -Friday at 12:49 am and 11:44 am -Saturday at 1:14 am and 12:36 pm http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/tide_predictions.html1.5”

8. Extended Rain Forecast 6-8 inches 3-6 inches 8 am Sunday to 8 am Tuesday 2-3 inches 5 Day Rainfall Totals day through day 4-5” 0.50” 1” 1” 0.25” 2.5” 2” 1.25” 1.5” 8 am Tuesday to 8 am Thursday 4-5” 0.50” 1” 1” 0.50”

9. Current Watch/Warnings Withlachoochee River at Trilby -Minor Flooding, slow fall Cypress Creek at Worthington Gardens -Minor Flooding, slow fall Alafia River at Lithia -Action Stage, slow fall Myakka River at State Park -Staying near Moderate Flooding with a very slow fall Peace River at Arcadia - Minor Flooding, slow fall

10. Impact Summary Surge/Tide Impacts HeadlinesHeadlines RainfallRainfall TornadosTornados WindWind Uncertainty on forecast track increase on Sunday Big impact on where rain and wind will be Consider wind speed probabilities before making decisions Are they going up or down? A 25% chance of Tropical Storm Force winds means a 1-in-4 chance Impacts of Tropical Storm Force winds Monitor Wind Speed Probabilities at http://hurricanes.gov. Do they continue to go upward? http://hurricanes.gov We are on the dry half of Erika if it follows forecast track or goes right in the right side of the error cone. If forecast track shifts westward, our rain impacts increase, especially in interior counties Enhanced street flooding near the coast if heavy rain falls around the times of high tide Through the weekend Storm Surge – none expected at this time Low impact, Typically in the northeast quadrant of the storm.

11. Next Webinar at 1 pm Friday http://weather.gov/tampabay http://twitter.com/NWSTampaBay http://facebook.com/NWSTampaBay http://youtube.com/NWSTampa sr-tbw.ops@noaa.gov Download this and archived Webinar PPTs & PDFs at http://go.usa.gov/9ark http://go.usa.gov/9ark One only needs to register for Webinar once Continue to use the same link you received via Email