1. PACS 4500 Senior Seminar in Peace and Conflict Studies Guy Burgess Co-Director Conflict Information Consortium, University of Colorado UCB 580, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0580, (303) 492-1635 burgess@colorado.edu burgess@colorado.edu Copyright © 2014 Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess

2. Due Dates Project Topic Questions Reading Reflections #1 Due Date: 8am Sat Feb 7

3. Accessing Comments

4. Authentication pacs4500

5. Substitute You PACS ID Code Identikey plus 4 digit number that was emailed to you.

6. Comments

7. Sunset Laws / Consumer Counsels http://www.denverpost.com/editorials/ci_27405481/colorado-office-consumer-counsel-deserves-stay

8. Legal Assistance http://billmoyers.com/2 015/01/31/civil-legal- assistance-saves- money-helps-people- escape-poverty/

9. The New Culture Wars http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ej-dionne-culture-wars-old-and-new/2015/01/25/a3e40e56-a33e- 11e4-9f89-561284a573f8_story.html?hpid=z3

10. Refugees

11. Beyond the Invisible Fist A Very Large-Scale Strategy for Promoting More Constructive Forms of Competition and Conflict Escaping the Cycle of Conflict Guy Burgess & Heidi Burgess Co-Directors Conflict Information Consortium, University of Colorado UCB 580, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0580, (303) 492-1635, burgess@colorado.eduburgess@colorado.edu Copyright © 2015 Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess

12. Conflict Stages (Resolution Model)

14. USIP Stages Michael S. Lund, Preventing Violent Conflicts: A Strategy for Preventive Diplomacy (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1996), p. 38.

15. Synonyms (Sort of)  Peacebuilding  SSTR– Security, Stabilization, Transition, and Reconstruction  Reconciliation  Conflict Transformation

16. Questioning the Stage Model Michael S. Lund, Preventing Violent Conflicts: A Strategy for Preventive Diplomacy (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1996), p. 38. ?

17. Conflict Stages (Victory Model) Defeat of One Side -------------------------- Repression and Latent Hostility ----------------------------------

18. Conflict as a Breaking Wave You have to deal with all stages simultaneously. http://randallpaulson1.files.wordpress.com/ 2011/04/randallpaulson_eb_mld4809_1.jpg

19. Conflict Cycle

20. Conflict Escape Opportunity The “best” and sometimes the last* opportunity for peace. * For a long, long time.

21. Peace-Making, -Keeping Takeoff Point http://static0.demotix.com/sites/default/files /imagecache/a_scale_large/200- 7/photos/1267366442-peacekeepers-in- sudan262607_262607.jpg

22. Preventing Conflict Reemergence  Breaking wave map with exit option

23. Peter Coleman Attractors http://attractorsoftware.org/

24. Post-Conflict Resolution and Reconciliation: Making It Work ?

25. Escape Velocity http://lcas.otaski.org/images/3/30/Rocket_tr ajectory.png

26. Multi-Stage Rocket Metaphor  Stage I: Peacemaking, peacekeeping Post-Conflict Resolution, Reconciliation, and Peacebuilding  Stage II: Retrospective reconciliation  Stage III: Prospective positive vision  Stage IV: P rospective governance  Stage V: Prospective “invisible hand” (private- sector) interactions

27. Trauma Recovery Metaphor http://www.dccacademy.org.uk/curriculum/c urriculum/public_services/mountain_rescue _images/gallery_photos/image_02.jpg http://blogs.technet.com/blogfiles/daven/Wi ndowsLiveWriter/Whatwasthereferencetoth emountainrescuehe_11508/074_74_thumb.jpg http://www.stfrancismedical.org/Services/E mergency- Department/emergency.aspx?width=300&h eight=225 http://www.progressive- pt.net/images/physical_therapy.png

28. Ecological Succession http://www.alaskaphotographics.com/i/pag es-photos/fireweed-yukon-17b-8169.jpg http://www.nowwebecomeourselves.com/i mages/ImagesPictures/AspenForest1.jpg http://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/plants/tr ee/pinconl/crownfire.jpg http://media.backpacker.com/media/origina ls/RockyMountainNationalParkBoulderBroo ktoGlacierGorge73584.jpeg

29. Societal Injuries Much More Complex http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1346729/thumbs/ o-SYRIA-WAR-facebook.jpg

30. Purposeful Problem-Solving Biological, Social Evolution Formal Informal

31. The Goal: Build “Invisible Hand” NOT “Invisible Fist” Societies Invisible Hand Invisible Fist The Invisible Hand/Fist Continuum

32. Goal: Limit Two Threats Posed by the “Invisible Fist”  Type I “Power Over” efforts of tyrants, plutocrats and wannabes to dominate and oppress others  Type II The inability of those pursuing an equitable “Power With” vision of society to navigate the many Destructive Conflict Dynamics that threaten such efforts.

33. Goal: Constructive Conflict "War is the continuation of diplomacy (peaceful approaches to conflict) by other means." "Peace is the continuation of war (violent approaches to conflict) by other means." Inverted Clausewitz

34. Goal: Not Kumbaya “Resolution” “End of History”Utopia

35. Tough Problems Machiavellian Spoilers Tyrant Wannabes

36. Tough Problems CONF 756 The Crane Brinton Effect

37. Tough Problems Tragedy of the Commons

38. Tough Problems Side A Side B Compromisers Side A FightersSide B Fighters Swing People CONF 756 Attacking the Compromisers

39. Have/Have-Not Complexity Problems at the Top Natural Selection New Class Differences Superstar Effect Money Addiction Boundless Greed Rationalization Zero-Sum Thinking Concentration of Wealth Discrimination Problems at the Bottom Family Disintegration Withdrawal from the Workforce Low Educational Expectations Scarcity Thinking Crime Estimate the Percentage of “Explained Variance” associated with each factor. Systemic Problems Prison Industrial Complex Poverty Capitalism Cheating Advantages Automation Technological Advance Kludgeocracy Employer's Market (Fear Economy) Lack of Compassion Underperforming Schools Tax Structure Red Tape Regulations

40. Think Before You March I http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/01/16/think-before-you-march- charlie-hebdo-islamist-terrorism/ Things to think about: Are you magnifying the importance of an attack? Is political opportunism influencing the response? Is there a “terrorism industrial complex” at play? Is an overly harsh response likely to drive the backlash effect and increase rather than decrease terrorism? Is the response likely to increase rather than decrease intergroup hostility? Are you failing to put the terrorism risk in proper perspective with other risks? Are we recognizing the many ways in which our actions have understandably contributed to hostility against the West? Are we being morally consistent in condemning acts of terror committed by our friends? Wes and Mark Wes and Mark

41. Think Before You March II http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/01/16/think-before-you-march- charlie-hebdo-islamist-terrorism/ Accept that we are playing the long game of containment, Recognize that the heart of the struggle is elsewhere, Offer the lived idea of equality as citizens as an alternative to violent jihad, Address the frustrations that marginalized populations feel Accept the need for security measures while recognizing they never ensure completely safety, Remain true to our ideals (rule of law, no torture, etc.). Stop trying to engage in regime change and/or social engineering in the Arab and Islamic worlds, Stop using force there in an inconsistent and often indiscriminate fashion.

42. Conflict Mapping I Exercise  Place the principle adversary parties on the map arranged in conflict clusters.  Map complaints/conflicts Type I  Assess legitimacy of complaints based on compassionate values  That which is hurtful to you, do not do to others.  Map principal confrontations (disputes) associated with each complaint  Assess the destructiveness of each confrontation Type II