1. Special Education Teacher Shortages – Building the Data Systems and Predictive Models to Understand the Scope of the Problem Edward Caffarella, State University of New York, College at Cortland Rorie Fitzpatrick, Nevada Department of Education William Lange, Lange Research and Evaluation Sharon Schumacher, Alaska Department of Ed. and Early Development

2. Today’s Objectives Share Nevada’s & Alaska’s Experiences – Tracking Teacher Attrition – Predicting Supply & Demand Students and Teachers Discuss the Issues, Using Real Data Share Some Troubling Trends Contemplate the Impacts and Next Steps

3. Teacher Attrition in Nevada Edward Caffarella, State University of New York, College at Cortland Rorie Fitzpatrick, Nevada Department of Education

4. Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) performance measure #5 The Statewide number and percentage of highly qualified special education teachers in State-identified professional disciplines consistent with sections 602(a)(10) and 612(a)(14) of IDEA, who remain teaching after the first three years of employment. 483 started / 261 remained = 54%

5. Mentoring New Special Education Teachers Clark County (Las Vegas area) Washoe County (Reno area)

6. Mentoring New Special Education Teachers Clark County (Las Vegas area) Lost 16% after 1 year Lost 30% after 2 years Washoe County (Reno area) Lost 25% after 1 year Lost 45% after 2 years Statewide Lost 19% after 1 year Lost 32% after 2 years

7. About the Data Source Teaching Assignment Database – Teacher, Class, School, District Teacher Certification Database – Teacher, Certifications, Age Used for Reporting Highly Qualified Teachers under NCLB Designed to look within the year Rotated database to look across multiple years

8. Actual Data Using existing data All teachers since 1997 Repurposed the data Tracked a Teacher’s Career Full Population

9. Nevada Special Education Teachers Started in fall of Total Hired Left after 1 year Left after 2 years Left after 3 years Left after 4 years Left after 5 years Left after 10 years Still Teaching Fall 2008 1998 34677393429181787 1999 39777394628 117 2000 3978150273322136 2001 3738942472925108 2002 4398263572437148 2003 4157669492430167 2004 47389694526244 2005 483785688261 2006 54310472367 2007 45277375 2008 498

10. Nevada Special Education Teachers Started in fall of Total Hired Left after 1 year Left after 2 years Left after 3 years Left after 4 years Left after 5 years Left after 10 years Still Teaching Fall 2008 1998 34622%11%10%8%5% 25% 1999 39719%10%12%7% 29% 2000 39720%13%7%8%6%34% 2001 37324%11%13%8%7%29% 2002 43919%14%13%5%8%34% 2003 41518%17%12%6%7%40% 2004 47319%15%10%5%52% 2005 48316%12%18%54% 2006 54319%13%68% 2007 45217%83% 2008 498100%

11. Cumulative % Nevada Special Education Teachers Started in fall of Total Hired Left after 1 year Left after 2 years Left after 3 years Left after 4 years Left after 5 years Left after 10 years Still Teaching Fall 2008 1998 34622%34%43%52%57% 75% 25% 1999 39719%29%41%48%55%29% 2000 39720%33%40%48%54%34% 2001 37324%35%48%55%62%29% 2002 43919%33%46%51%60%34% 2003 41518%35%47%53%60%40% 2004 47319%33%43%48%52% 2005 48316%28%46%54% 2006 54319%32%68% 2007 45217%83% 2008 498100%

12. After X Years1510 Statewide81%42%25% Orthopedic Impairments67% Adapted Physical Education79%60%58% Speech & Language Impaired90%55%34% Hearing Impaired88%51%29% Mental Retardation80%51%34% Gifted and Talented83%49%19% Visually Impaired76%48%28% Multiple/Diversely Impaired77%44%21% Seriously Emotionally Disturbed80%42%24% Autism79%41%29% Early Childhood Develop Delayed80%40%29% Generalist79%39%19% Specific Learning Disabilities87%36%21% Health Impairments, not Orthopedic100%33% American Sign Language100%25%0%

13. Nevada Regular Education Teachers Started in fall of Total Hired Left after 1 year Left after 2 years Left after 3 years Left after 4 years Left after 5 years Left after 10 years Still Teaching Fall 2008 199816702181431461059545628 1999163721516613788107632 2000146418213311285118645 200115402031421408294727 200216652421751558890823 200315362181431398882866 200421793032491961231308 200523803452372051593 200626023282861988 200722393281911 20081254

14. Nevada Regular Education Teachers Started in fall of Total Hired Left after 1 year Left after 2 years Left after 3 years Left after 4 years Left after 5 years Left after 10 years Still Teaching Fall 2008 19981670 13%9% 6% 3%628 19991637 13%10%8%5%7% 632 20001464 12%9%8%6%8% 645 20011540 13%9% 5%6% 727 20021665 15%11%9%5% 823 20031536 14%9% 6%5% 866 20042179 14%11%9%6% 1308 20052380 14%10%9% 1593 20062602 13%11% 1988 20072239 15% 1911 20081254

15. Cumulative % NV Reg. Ed. Teachers Started in fall of Total Hired Left after 1 year Left after 2 years Left after 3 years Left after 4 years Left after 5 years Left after 10 years Still Teaching Fall 2008 19981670 13%22%30%37%42% 62%628 19991637 13%23%32%37%44% 632 20001464 12%22%29%35%43% 645 20011540 13%22%31%37%43% 727 20021665 15%25%34%40%45% 823 20031536 14%24%33%38%44% 866 20042179 14%25%34%40% 1308 20052380 14%24%33% 1593 20062602 13%24% 1988 20072239 15% 1911 20081254

16. Cumulative Percentage of Nevada Teachers Remaining Teaching by Years of Service After X Years1234510 Regular Only86%77%68%62%57%38% Special Only84%72%62%56%49%33% Mixed100%95%92%87%83%65% All Teachers87%77%68%63%57%39% USA Total*86%76%67%60%54% *from National Commission on Teaching and America's Future. (2003). No Dream Denied: A Pledge to America's Children. Washington, DC: NCTAF.

17. Percentage of NV Teachers by Assignment 1997-2008 Number % of Total % of Sp Ed All service regular34,62582.2% All service special5,52613.1%73.6% Reg Ed changed to Sp Ed5821.4%7.8% Reg Ed to Sp Ed & back to Reg3510.8%4.7% Sp Ed changed to Reg Ed7421.8%9.9% Sp Ed to Reg & back to Sp Ed1670.4%2.2% Other changing assignment1370.3%1.8% TOTAL42,130 TOTAL any special education7,505 TOTAL mixed1,979

20. Bermuda Triangle High Attrition Rates Large Numbers At or Approaching Retirement Difficulty Hiring New Sp Ed Teachers

21. System Development Considerations Use actual data Sp Ed trends get buried in overall data Mixed assignments = high retention rates Losing large numbers of new teachers Losing more special education teachers than regular education teachers