1. ERTAC 1

2. P RESENTATION O VERVIEW 1. Process Overview and Timelines 2. Inputs 3. Algorithm Details 4. Results 5. Outstanding issues 2

3. 1. P ROCESS O VERVIEW AND T IMELINES a. What is the ERTAC Growth Committee? b. Criteria for product c. Committee structure d. Progress & Timeline 3

4. W HAT ARE WE TRYING TO ACCOMPLISH ? Develop Methodology to Create EGU FY Emission Inventories that meets certain criteria: Conservative predictions of unit activity Relies primarily on state knowledge of unit retirement, fuel switching & controls Can be re-run iteratively to look a variety of scenarios Transparent Inexpensive Relies on base year activity data Flexible 4

5. ERTAC EGU G ROWTH Eastern Regional Technical Advisory Committee Collaboration: NE, Mid-Atlantic, Southern, and Lake Michigan states Industry Multi-jurisdictional organizations Why are certain states in yellow? Are they participating in ETAC EGU? 5

6. S UBCOMMITTEES AND C O -C HAIRS ERTAC EGU Growth Committee Co-chairs: Laura Mae Crowder, WV DEP Bob Lopez, WI DE Danny Wong, NJ DEP Four Subcommittees and Leads: Implementation/ Mark Janssen, LADCO: Create logic for software Growth/ Bob Lopez, WI & Laura Mae Crowder, WV: Regional specific growth rates for peak and off peak Data Tracking/ Wendy Jacobs, CT: Improve default data to reflect state specific information Renewables & Conservation Programs/ Danny Wong, NJ & Laura Boothe, NC: Characterize programs not already included in growth factors 6

7. S TATE I NVOLVEMENT Regional lead identified per RPO to coordinate their state review of model and inputs. EGU representative identified in each state for QA of the input files. These representatives will also review the output to provide guidance If Future Year (FY) emission goals are not met given known controls, states will indicate what strategy will be applied to meet the goal. 7

8. P ROGRESS S O F AR.... Model Development: Methodology created, documentation crafted Preprocessor & projection running on Linux and Windows (GA, VA, MARAMA, IN, NJ, OTC) Developing postprocessing software Estimating Growth in Generation: Growth rates and regions defined Updating with current Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2012 8

9. P ROGRESS S O F AR.... Input File Development: Unit file and future controls file reviewed by states Cap files are being converted to use CAIR caps Further state input ongoing Results: Ran through first iterations of the postprocessor Distributed to member states for review 9

10. ERTAC T IMELINE September - October, 2012 Initial multi-state test runs Review output, revise and rerun Present results to states for comment November, 2012 Present to full ERTAC Committee Present model and results to USEPA Future tasks Develop AEO 2012 growth factors Develop new base year 2011 10

11. D ATA I MPORTATION a. Inputs b. Preprocessing c. Growth Rates 11

12. ERTAC I NPUTS Starting Point: BY CAMD activity data Gross load hourly data, unit fuel, unit type, location Units categorized by: Fuel Type [Boiler Gas, Oil, Simple Cycle, Combined Cycle, Coal] Region [AEO regions (e.g. MACE, LILC, WOMS)] States review provides known new units, controls, retirements, fuel switches, etc EIA AEO growth factors NERC peak growth factors 12

13. P REPROCESSING F UNCTIONS Data Edit Checks Unit availability file Controls file Growth rates file BY hourly CAMD data Removes non-EGUS Determines hourly temporal hierarchy Based on regional hourly GL Important for load distribution and growth rates 13

14. P REPROCESSING F UNCTIONS Assigns hourly usage profile for FY to new units Assesses partial year reporting units Creates unit hierarchies for growth distribution For every hour, calculates load specific values by region and fuel/unit type Retired generation New unit generation Existing generation Calculates “non peak” growth rates “Load specific values” seems vague, what do we mean by that? Add page numbers 14

15. G ROWTH R ATES Peak GR = 1.07 Annual GR = 0.95 Transition hours of 200 & 2,000 Non Peak GR = 0.9328 (calculated) 15

16. G ROWTH R ATES (GR) Hour specific growth rates allow program to adjust temporal profile of unit based on regional and fuel/unit type hourly growth profiles Resulting FY profile might different from BY Provides ability to understand effects of peak episodic GR and control programs on air quality AEO Growth combined with NERC peak growth Peak Growth – First 200 hour in hierarchy Transition growth – 200-2000 hours in hierarchy Non-peak growth – last remaining hours in hierarchy out to 8760 hours. Combined factor is further adjusted to account for: Retirements & new units. 16

17. T HE EVOLUTION OF GROWTH RATES FROM AEO2010 ANNUAL TO HOURLY 17

18. 3. A LGORITHM D ETAILS a. Regional modularity b. Adjusted FY Growth Rates c. Excess generation pool d. Generic units e. New Unit Utilization f. Spinning Reserve 18

19. R EGIONAL M ODULARITY Each ERTAC region analyzed independently Reserve analyzed on a regional basis Algorithm determines if capacity has been met for each hour for the region and fuel/unit type Use new units For all ERTAC Regions For all Fuel/Type Bins Analyze capacity versus demand Assign generation Spinning Reserve 19

20. A DJUSTED F UTURE Y EAR G ROWTH R ATES (AFYGR), H OUR S PECIFIC For every region and fuel/unit type, each hour has a variable value for: Total FY Load (Hour Specific GR * BY Load=FY Gen) Total Retired Generation (RetGen) Total New Unit Generation (NU Gen) GR for each hour adjusted before application to existing unit hourly BY loads! AFYGR = (FY Generation – NU Gen) (BY Generation – RetGen) 20

21. E XCESS G ENERATION P OOL If unit growth exceeds capacity Unit is limited to capacity Demand beyond capacity added to the excess generation pool for that hour/region/ fuel/unit type bin The pool is distributed to other units in unit allocation hierarchy order Units receive power up to optimal threshold or max capacity in two distribution loops Power distribution ceases when pool is depleted or all units are at capacity (generic unit must be created to meet demand) 21

22. N EW G ENERIC U NITS Added to meet demand Utilization determined on a fuel/unit type basis, similar to new state supplied units Receive unmet demand Size/location of generic units adjustable FY temporal profile assigned by region and fuel/unit type If a generic unit is added, the allocation hierarchy is recalculated and the loop begins at the first hour First/next hour in the hierarchy Does capacity meet demand? Add generic unit Reallocate unit order Begin at first hour in the hierarchy Y N 22

23. N EW U NIT U TILIZATION New units receive generation from the excess generation pool Annual power production limited by default or state input Temporal profile based on similar unit (mimic) — program allows user to change the “mimic” unit New units (generic and state supplied) are high in utilization relative to other similar units because assumed to be: Very efficient Very clean Variables assigned to region and fuel/unit type characteristics are adjustable 23

24. S PINNING R ESERVE CHECK Following assignment of generation Check if reserve capacity is available for each hour in each region If in any hour there is not reserve capacity equal 100% of the capacity of the largest unit operating of any fuel type, a flag is raised Determine reserve capacity needs for that hour Is unused capacity > reserve capacity ? Y N Alert: More capacity needed First/next hour 24

25. R ESULTS a. Output b. Examples c. Runtime 25

26. O UTPUT /R ESULTS Future year hourly activity Heat input (mmbtu) Gross load (MW) SO2 emissions (lbs) NOx emissions (lbs) File includes 8,760 hours for each: Existing unit that is not retired New state supplied unit New generic unit created by the code Summary files Post-projection processing: graphs, more summaries, etc 26

27. O UTPUT FROM ERTAC EGU V1 Unit level Overall output 27

28. E XAMPLE : C OAL F IRED E XISTING U NIT, 800 MW A NNUAL GR=1.018, P EAK GR=1.056, N ONPEAK GR=1.012 28

29. E XAMPLE : C OAL F IRED E XISTING U NIT, 800 MW ( ZOOM IN VIEW ) A NNUAL GR=1.018, P EAK GR=1.056, N ONPEAK GR=1.012 Something wrong with the X axis 29

30. E XAMPLE : C OAL F IRED E XISTING U NIT, 800 MW – SO2 C ONTROL A NNUAL GR=1.018, P EAK GR=1.056, N ONPEAK GR=1.012 30

31. E XAMPLE : C OMBINED C YCLE N EW U NIT, 300 MW A NNUAL GR= 0.904, P EAK GR=1.2, N ONPEAK GR=0.901 31

32. E XAMPLE : S IMPLE C YCLE E XISTING U NIT, 53 MW A NNUAL GR=1.39, P EAK GR=1.549, N ONPEAK GR=1.377 32

33. P OST - PROJECTION P ROCESSING G RAPHICAL O UTPUT – P AGE 1 E XAMPLE 33

34. P OST - PROJECTION P ROCESSING G RAPHICAL O UTPUT – P AGE 2 E XAMPLE 34

35. V ER. 1 SUMMARY RESULTS – ALL REGIONS Heat Input SO2 Emissions NOX Emissions Generation 35

36. I N SUMMARY The model has been built Inputs are being refined Output has been generated Work is needed to evaluate output Partial Year Reporters Generic units New growth factors based on AEO 2012 are needed Scenarios can be built to evaluate policy 36