1. by Ciro Fiorillo, CTA - NFPCSP National Food Policy Capacity Strengthening Program Results of the Program Funded Research in support of the National Food Policy Thursday, 9 July 2009 Workshop’s context and objectives

2. The context: Undernourishment Long term positive trend reverted by 2007/08 crises FAO/WFP estimated impact of food crisis: - Consuming less than 2,122 kcal/day: +7.5Million - Consuming less than 1,805 kcal/day: +6.9Million Source: BBS; Absolute poor < 2122 kcal/day: Hard core poor < 1805 kcal/day

3. The context: Underweight and Stunting 2008 data from (BRAC, 2009); 2007 data NIPORT-BDHS; Other years: HKI/IPHN-NSP Estimated impacts of price increase from 2006 to 2008: Wasting + 49.7%Underweight + 23.1% Impacts on children are in part irreversible 2007 Stunting36% Underweight46%

4. The Context: Rice Production Strong response to high prices and natural disasters: BORO 2008 +18.7% ; AUS + 25.2%; AMAN + 18.1%. Good performance of Boro 2009 despite declining prices SOURCE: BBS Average growth rate (between 2000-01 and 2006-07): 1.5%

5. The context: Rice Supply-Utilization Balance Scenario 1 – BBS figures (Boro yield is from 2008), except SPARSO for 2009 Boro planted area Scenario 2 – BBS figures, except DAE for Boro 2009 FY 2008/09 projected to end with a substantial stock increase: Bangladesh exceeds self sufficiency. Without exports, prices will decline further

6. Source: MISM The context: PRICE VOLATILITY National average retail price (coarse rice) June 2009 on June 2008 = -37% June 2009 on January 2006 = +18.5 % Low world food prices good for consumers, bad for farmers and production

7. How to support rice producing farmers? Procurement: if quantity is small compared to supply, effect on market price is limited. Announcing price only before harvest, limits impact on production and farmers’ income Exports is another way for reducing supply in the market and sustaining prices. BUT high price damages consumers Cash subsidies: deficiency payment or payments proportional to area planted, can support income and production Lump sum payments can sustains incomes with limited impact on rice production Input subsidies increase profitability without increasing prices, but highly distortive and limited impact on farmers’ incomes, e.g. fertilisers

8. Migration started increasing in 2000 with remittances clearly picking up in 2005/06 Remittances have not declined However, there is a marked decline in the number of persons migrating since Jan ’08 This adds to the trend of migrants having to return Source: Bangladesh Bank Emerging threats: Migration and Remittances

9. Source: Bangladesh Bank Garments: an increasingly significant source of income for Bangladesh since the mid-90s Rapid growth of past years has slowed down over the recent past, but no decline observed Future trend depends on duration of global economic crisis Emerging threats: income from garment export

10. Food Policy priorities Focus on agriculture as the main domestic source of economic growth through its economic linkages Increase agricultural productivity to sustainably reduce costs and prices, while improving availability and income 4 keywords: intensification, diversification, sustainability & resilience Stabilize prices through stock and trade management Ensure adequate public stock for up-scaling safety nets, market stabilization, and emergency reserves Enhance safety nets reducing leakages and improving coverage and targeting of the poorest, while linking them to public works and development of infrastructure Promote diversification of diet and support nutritional status of disadvantaged groups

11. Food Policy Approach Achieving MDG 1 and the World Food Summit target will require renewed and intensified policy commitment. FOOD SECURITY POLICIES should: flexibly adjust to the changing market: deficit VS surplus management combine short term and structural responses, i.e. twin track approach: direct transfer should aim at development and graduation out of poverty be comprehensive including: - availability and stability of supply - economic, social and physical access - food utilization for safe and balanced nutrition

12. National Food Policy Plan of Action a comprehensive, long-term (2008-2015) framework for coordinating government interventions on food security Aligning development support to national priorities encompassing Availability: Adequate & stable supply of safe and nutritious food Access: Increased purchasing power and access to food by the poor through safety nets Nutrition for all individuals, especially women and children

13. Developed by 12 government agencies led by the FPMU through a wide consultation process involving main Government actors and other stakeholders 26 areas of intervention and 314 actions Fully consistent with the PRSP and other relevant policies (e.g., agricultural policy), the PoA provides: a framework to coordinate government interventions a reference for development support to food security to be in line with the Paris Declaration on aid effectiveness (alignment, ownership, etc.) The NFP Plan of Action

14. In order to be effective, policy decisions on food security need to be based on: reliable, complete and timely information analysis of the information relevant to policy making scientific knowledge from research dialog with stakeholders in civil society Informed policy making for FS

15. Completed Research: 14 CF, 8 PR: reports being finalized On-going research: 11 PR, 11 PR (initiated in 2008) Funding: almost US$ 1.2 million contracted 78% disbursed Research areas: production and availability; Utilization/Nutrition; Economic Access; Physical and Social Access; Cross cutting issues (environment, gender, governance, etc.) The NFPCSP Research Grant Scheme

16. Discuss findings of 8 completed program researches with a focus on policy implications Present through poster paper progress of 22 other research grants (11 CFs + 11 PRs) undertaken at the end of 2007 Promote dialogue among researchers and between researchers and policy makers in support of decision making Purpose of the Workshop

17. 2 (BSMRA). Impacts of anthropogenic activities on natural resources and food security in the coastal region 3 (BIDS). Impact of Paid Employment and Self-Employment on Income and Prospects of Household Food Security 4(BAU): Changing land use patterns and their impact on food security for farm households in Bangladesh 5 (CASEED): implementation status and effectiveness of the new agricultural extension policy (NAEP) for technology adoption 6 (BRF). Price stabilization, market integration and consumer welfare in Bangladesh 7 (CAB): Institutionalization of healthy street food system in Bangladesh: A pilot study in Dhaka City 8 (BAU): Capacity strengthening of rural women in carrying out post harvest activities (PHA) of vegetables and fruits 1 (BIDS). Instability in food production and prices, nature of food markets, impact and policies 2 (BSMRA). Impacts of anthropogenic activities on natural resources and food security in the coastal region 3 (BIDS). Impact of Paid Employment and Self-Employment on Income and Prospects of Household Food Security 4(BAU): Changing land use patterns and their impact on food security for farm households in Bangladesh 5 (CASEED): implementation status and effectiveness of the new agricultural extension policy (NAEP) for technology adoption 6 (BRF). Price stabilization, market integration and consumer welfare in Bangladesh 7 (CAB): Institutionalization of healthy street food system in Bangladesh: A pilot study in Dhaka City 8 (BAU): Capacity strengthening of rural women in carrying out post harvest activities (PHA) of vegetables and fruits Studies to be discussed today

18. Thank you !

19. Developed by 12 government agencies led by the FPMU through a wide consultation process involving main Government actors and other stakeholders 26 areas of intervention and 314 actions Fully consistent with the PRSP and other relevant policies (e.g., agricultural policy), the PoA provides: a framework to coordinate government interventions a reference for development support to food security to be in line with the Paris Declaration on aid effectiveness (alignment, ownership, etc.) The NFP Plan of Action

20. The PoA: Highlights Improving productivity and efficiency of domestic food production  Research and extension, inputs, water management credit & insurance, market infrastructure, marketing, etc. Reduce vulnerability to price and other shocks and protect vulnerable people’s access to food  Price support and stabilization, public stock management, Early Warning, etc.  Disaster Management, PFD & safety nets, income generation, MSMEs development, skills development, etc. Sustain programs for reducing malnutrition  balanced food, nutrition education, supplementation and fortification, food safety, women and children health

21. Donors: PARTNERS FAO: Implementi ng Technical Agency GoB: FPMU 11 Ministries/Dept NFPCSP: Project Formulation and Partners developed alongside the National Food Policy Initially: 3 donors for a 5 year project Now: Phase I : 2 donors for 3 years (till end 2008) Phase II: 2 donors for 4 years (till end 2012)