1. OThree Chemistry MM5/CAMx Model Diagnostic and Sensitivity Analysis Results Central California Ozone Study: Bi-Weekly Presentation 2 T. W. Tesche Dennis McNally 19 November 2003

2. OThree Chemistry Recent Analyses & Results  MM5 Performance Comparisons Between  Run 3 (eta.dry.rrtm.mpp),  Run 4 (eta.dry.rrtm.Zo.mpp)  Spatial Mean Temperature Time Series  Vector Mean Surface Wind Speed Time Series  Statistical Results for Surface Mixing Ratio, 2m Temps, and Wind Speeds  MM5 Performance Aloft  CAMx Operational Evaluation with with AQS Data  Current MM5/EMS-95/CAMx Diagnoses  Next Steps, Especially Resolution of Data Needs Issue…

3. OThree Chemistry Data Needs Issue: Key Decision Point  Of the essential data needs identified in 26 October ’03 memo, the following remain, PBL height estimates from T&B systems (hourly and daily excel files) Full set of surface met data (beyond just NWS) during 10-22 Sept ’03 (e.g., CIMAS) Full set of ozonesonde data during IOP3  Project resources/schedule cannot accommodate repetitive ingestion/reformatting of data sets  Delays in receiving remaining meteorological and/or air quality data could result in their not being used.  Key Decision: Do we wait until data base is complete or do we implement full-scale MM5/CAMx diagnosis & performance evaluation activities now with what we presently have?

4. OThree Chemistry Peak 1-hr Ozone Measurements for 16-21 Sept ‘00

5. OThree Chemistry Spatial Mean 2m Temps MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Run 4

6. OThree Chemistry Vector Mean Wind Speed MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Run 4

7. OThree Chemistry MM5 Temperature Performance Statistics for the 13-21 Sep ’00 Episode

8. OThree Chemistry MM5 Mixing Ratio Performance Statistics for the 13-21 Sep ’00 Episode

9. OThree Chemistry MM5 Wind Speed Performance Statistics for the 13-21 Sep ’00 Episode

10. OThree Chemistry Bias in 2m Surface Temperature MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Run 4 vs. Run 3

11. OThree Chemistry Error in 2m Surface Temperatures MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Run 4 vs. Run 3

12. OThree Chemistry Accuracy of Peak 2m Temperatures MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Run 4 vs. Run 3

13. OThree Chemistry Bias in Surface Mixing Ratio MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Run 4 vs. Run 3

14. OThree Chemistry Error in Surface Mixing Ratio MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Run 4 vs. Run 3

15. OThree Chemistry Mean Daily Observed and Predicted Winds MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Run 4 vs. Run 3

16. OThree Chemistry Daily Average Wind Speed RMSE Error MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Run 4 vs. Run 3

17. OThree Chemistry Mean Daily Index of Agreement MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Run 4 vs. Run 3

18. OThree Chemistry Observed and Predicted Wind Directions MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Run 4 vs. Run 3

19. OThree Chemistry CAMx Performance Statistics: Base A vs. ARB004

20. OThree Chemistry Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone: 16 Sept ‘00

21. OThree Chemistry Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone: 17 Sept ‘00

22. OThree Chemistry Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone: 18 Sept ‘00

23. OThree Chemistry Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone: 19 Sept ‘00

24. OThree Chemistry Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone: 20 Sept ‘00

25. OThree Chemistry Unpaired Accuracy of Peak 1-hr Ozone MM5/CAMx Base A vs. ARB001

26. OThree Chemistry Normalized Bias in 1-hr Ozone MM5/CAMx Base A vs. ARB001

27. OThree Chemistry Gross Error in 1-hr Ozone MM5/CAMx Base A vs. ARB001

28. OThree Chemistry Spatial Mean 1-hr Ozone: Base A CAMx Base A

29. OThree Chemistry Hourly Normalized Bias in Ozone: Base A CAMx Base A

30. OThree Chemistry Hourly Gross Error in Ozone: Base A CAMx Base A

31. OThree Chemistry QQ Plot of Hourly Ozone: Base A CAMx Base A 16 Sept ‘0017 Sept ‘00

32. OThree Chemistry QQ Plot of Hourly Ozone: Base A CAMx Base A 18 Sept ‘0019 Sept ‘00

33. OThree Chemistry QQ Plot of Hourly Ozone: Base A CAMx Base A 20 Sept ‘0021 Sept ‘00

34. OThree Chemistry Ozone Time Series at the Kern-Johnson Monitor (Med 137) CAMx Base A

35. OThree Chemistry Ozone Time Series at the Kern-20401 Monitor (Med 128) CAMx Base A

36. OThree Chemistry Ozone Time Series at the Fresno-9240 Monitor (Med 141) CAMx Base A

37. OThree Chemistry Ozone Time Series at the Fresno -908 Monitor (Med 142) CAMx Base A

38. OThree Chemistry MM5 Modeling Analyses  MM5 sensitivity to surface roughness?  MM5 sensitivity to soil moisture parameters?  MM5 sensitivity to nighttime temp. FDDA?

39. OThree Chemistry Emissions Modeling Analyses  Effects of temperature bias on biogenic/MV emissions via new MM5 run  Investigate potential systematic biases in biogenic/MV emissions

40. OThree Chemistry CAMx Diagnostic Analyses  Duration of spin-up (is 18 hr spin-up sufficient?)  Model sensitivity to ICs/BCs (use of GEOS-Chem global model boundary conditions?)  Effects of temperature bias on biogenic/MV emissions and chemistry reactions  Adequacy of vertical diffusivities  Adequacy of diurnal PBL height estimates

41. OThree Chemistry Data Sets Needed  CIMAS meteorological data sets  IOP3 air quality monitoring data  Hourly and daily maximum PBL heights developed by T&B Systems (Lehrmann and Knuth) for Sept ’00 episode

42. OThree Chemistry Next Steps  Obtain updated biogenics and MV emissions inventory for 13-21 Sept ’00 period.  Re-run CAMx with updated emissions  Extend MPE to include SJV Aircraft flights, multi- species evaluations  Begin Process Analysis