1. Chair of Economic GeographyProf. Dr. Paul Gans 1 Regional differences of vulnerability: the future of large cities in Germany, 2002- 2020 Prof. Dr. Paul Gans Chair of Economics Department of Economics University of Mannheim D-68131 Mannheim, Germany Tel.: +49 621 181-1958 E-mail: paulgans@uni-mannheim.de

2. Chair of Economic GeographyProf. Dr. Paul Gans 2 Demographic trends Decline and structural change of population These trends influence significantly future regional and urban development: → need for regional or local adaptation to population change; → driven by a region`s vulnerability: by the extent to which some of its assets can be negatively affected by demographic and non-demographic factors.

3. Chair of Economic GeographyProf. Dr. Paul Gans 3 Four components → specific needs of adaptation: Population development (in %) Maximum11.0 Q3Q3 0.1 Median-3.6 Q1Q1 -9.1 Minimum-22.0 Future population development of the large cities in Germany, 2002 – 2020 Source: Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning; calculations by the author -„less“

4. Chair of Economic GeographyProf. Dr. Paul Gans 4 -decrease on the revenue side; -cutbacks on the expense side; → weakening of the urban economy Four components → specific needs of adaptation: -„less“:

5. Chair of Economic GeographyProf. Dr. Paul Gans 5 Population ageing in the large cities in Germany, 2002 – 2020 Source: Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning; calculations by the author Old age dependency ratio 20022020 Maximum5690 Q3Q3 4858 Median4652 Q2Q2 4047 Minimum3239 Four components → specific needs of adaptation: -„greying“

6. Chair of Economic GeographyProf. Dr. Paul Gans 6 Four components → specific needs of adaptation: -„greying“: -decrease on tax receipts; -negative impacts on per capita income; -effects on labour force; -deficits in human capital; -leaving marks in the built city.

7. Chair of Economic GeographyProf. Dr. Paul Gans 7 Four components → specific needs of adaptation: -„singularized“ Single households in the large cities in Germany, 2002 – 2020 Source: Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning; calculations by the author Single households (in %) 20022020 Maximum5053 Q3Q3 4649 Median4447 Q2Q2 4245 Minimum3637

8. Chair of Economic GeographyProf. Dr. Paul Gans 8 Four components → specific needs of adaptation: -„singularized“: -increasing use of formal services -additional demand for family care (children, elderly); -new services.

9. Chair of Economic GeographyProf. Dr. Paul Gans 9 Four components → specific needs of adaptation: -„more heterogenous“ Foreign population in the large cities in Germany, 2002 Source: Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning; calculations by the author Foreign population (in %) Maximum26.0 Q3Q3 16.7 Median13.2 Q1Q1 9.3 Minimum1.4

10. Chair of Economic GeographyProf. Dr. Paul Gans 10 Four components → specific needs of adaptation: -„more heterogenous“: -challenge of integration multi-cultural population; -intensification by existing spatial concentrations.

11. Chair of Economic GeographyProf. Dr. Paul Gans 11 Source: Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning; calculations by the author Challenges of the future population development to the large cities in Germany, 2002 - 2020

12. Chair of Economic GeographyProf. Dr. Paul Gans 12 Source: Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning; calculations by the author Challenges of the future population development for the large cities in Germany, 2002 - 2020

13. Chair of Economic GeographyProf. Dr. Paul Gans 13 Source: Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning; calculations by the author Billeter Index 20022020 Maximum-5-6 Q3Q3 -7-14 Median-9-17 Q1Q1 -11-20 Minimum-15-23 Billeter Index for selected large cities, 2002 – 2020 Proportion of foreigners ≥ 16,7 % in 2002 Billeter Index 20022020 Maximum-5-15 Q3Q3 -11-22 Median-15-34 Q1Q1 -19-44 Minimum-26-63 Proportion of foreigners ≤ 9,3 % in 2002

14. Chair of Economic GeographyProf. Dr. Paul Gans 14 Source: Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning; calculations by the author Billeter Index 20022020 Maximum-5-6 Q3Q3 -7-14 Median-9-17 Q1Q1 -11-20 Minimum-15-23 Billeter Index for selected large cities, 2002 – 2020 Proportion of foreigners ≥ 16,7 % (Q 3 ) in 2002 Billeter Index 20022020 Maximum-5-15 Q3Q3 -11-22 Median-15-34 Q1Q1 -19-44 Minimum-26-63 Proportion of foreigners ≤ 9,3 % (Q 1 ) in 2002

15. Chair of Economic GeographyProf. Dr. Paul Gans 15 The population trend of the large cities until 2020 reveals polarizing effects between the cities with regard to future challenges to urban development.

16. Chair of Economic GeographyProf. Dr. Paul Gans 16 Thank you very much.