1. Climate, fire & some other bits Scott Goodrick USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station Athens, GA

2. Overview Climate change basics Climate patterns, variability & fire Managing fire in this new climate Restoration in this new climate

3. Climate change basics Climate has never been constant Humans do have an impact on climate The climate system is a complex dynamical system We do not know everything about the climate system

4. Climate patterns ENSO is probably the best known pattern of climate variability. There are many other patterns

5. Florida wildfires and climate

6. Climate variability & Texas drought Reconstructed time series of PDSI for 1803 to 2003. Negative PDSI values indicate drought. Some major dry periods are clearly evident, the recent few decades are characterized as fairly wet.

7. Climate variability & Texas drought The time series data can be decomposed into a collection into a collection of waves of different frequencies to find which waves contain the most energy. ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are clearly evident. ENSO PDO

8. Climate variability & Texas drought Wavelet analysis allows us to see the dominant modes, but also how these modes may vary in time. Many severe drought years occurred when the various modes were in phase with each other. Around 1880-1940 the 20 year oscillation appears strongly damped but shows signs of redeveloping later in the 1900's.

9. Analysis of the Data - Extended Extending further back in the data set, 400 years rather than just 200, reveals that the same modes of variability are still dominant. The changes in the 20 year oscillation appear to be periodic.

10. Managing fire in this new climate Fire behavior Fuel models Fire effects Burn windows

11. Restoration Can we keep doing what we have been doing ??? What is the “right” target ???