1. Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2015 February 10, 2015

2. Class Information and News Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15 –Record of course Rood’s Class MediaWiki SiteClass MediaWiki Site –http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Actionhttp://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action Next Tuesday, February 17 th, is our first guest Lecturer –Shelie Miller, Scenario Planning

3. East Coast Blizzard Assignment Assignment and resubmissions should be open. –Amended: Revisit this assignment with regard to what has the weather been like in New England and the previous two lectures on internal variability.

4. Resources and Recommended Reading IPCC (2013) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy MakersIPCC (2013) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers IPCC (2013) Working Group 1: Technical SummaryIPCC (2013) Working Group 1: Technical Summary IPCC (2013) Working Group 2: Summary for Policy MakersIPCC (2013) Working Group 2: Summary for Policy Makers IPCC (2013) Working Group 2: Technical SummaryIPCC (2013) Working Group 2: Technical Summary National Climate Assessment (2014)

5. Resources and Recommended Reading BAMS: State of the Climate –State of Climate 2009State of Climate 2009 State of the Climate: Monthly SummaryState of the Climate Walther, Ecological Response, Nature, 2002 McCarty, Ecological Consequences, Conservation Biology, 2001McCarty, Ecological Consequences, Conservation Biology, 2001 Rosenzweig, Attribution of Impacts, Nature, 2008Rosenzweig, Attribution of Impacts, Nature, 2008 Revkin DotEarth, Ocean Temperature Rood Blog, “Just Temperature”

6. Outline: Class 10, Winter 2015 Climate variability and trends (Redux) Trends in physical climate –Ocean –Ice –Rain –Temperature Trends in impacts (most briefly, see IPCC WGII, and reference list)

7. Modes of Climate Variability Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes. –El Niño – La NiñaEl Niño – La Niña What is El Niño –North Atlantic OscillationNorth Atlantic Oscillation Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation –Annular ModeAnnular Mode –Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic –Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal Oscillation

8. Ocean Circulation

9. The Thermohaline Circulation (THC) (Global, organized circulation in the ocean) (The “conveyer belt”, “rivers” within the ocean) Where there is localized exchange of water between the surface and the deep ocean (convection) Warm, surface currents. Cold, bottom currents. Green shading, high salt Blue shading, low salt

10. In Class / Groups / Discussion Thermohaline Circulation – Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation In groups discuss Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation / Gulf Stream –How does it affect climate? –How does variability affect climate? Consider: –Temperature, Ice Melting, Wind, Saltiness,

11. What is a stable climate? NOAA Paleoclimate LIQUID - ICE

12. Younger Dryas POSSIBLE EVIDENCE OF CHANGE IN OCEAN CIRCULATION WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

13. Abrupt Climate Change Dynamic variability in the ocean (ocean-ice-land- atmosphere interactions) Most scenarios of abrupt climate change are related to a phase change in some way or another. Does the albedo change quickly? Is there a change in the fresh water in the ocean? Is there a release of gas stored in something that is frozen? It is also possible to define rapid changes in ocean (land?) ecosystems, that leads to composition changes in the atmosphere. Biology – sensitive to temperature, water, salinity, ph, etc. Lamont-Doherty: Abrupt Climate Change

14. Abrupt Climate Change (NRC) Abrupt Climate Change (2013), National Research CouncilAbrupt Climate Change (2013) Abrupt Climate Change (2002), National Research CouncilAbrupt Climate Change (2002) Rood Summary Blog Wunderground: Abrupt Climate ChangeAbrupt Climate Change

15. Climate Variability and Trends

16. Time Scales of Variability 25 years 50 years75 years100 years0 years El Niño / La Niña Arctic Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation LONG SHORT Atlantic Meridional Overturning Abrupt ?

17. January 2011 Temperature Anomalies El Niño / La Niña Signal

18. GISS Temperature 2002 1997-98 El Niño

19. Roles of Uncertainty / Variability at Different Times Hawkins and Sutton, 2009 / Rood Lecture on Uncertainty Hawkins and Sutton, 2009Rood Lecture on Uncertainty

20. Trends in Physical Climate

21. Fig. 2.5. (State of Climate 2009) Time series from a range of indicators that would be expected to correlate strongly with the surface record. Note that stratospheric cooling is an expected consequence of greenhouse gas increases. A version of this figure with full references is available at www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-climate /.State of Climate 2009 www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-climate / Correlated behavior of different parameters

22. NOAA Web Resource on Ocean Heat ContentNOAA Web Resource on Ocean Heat Content Levitus 2012 Paper on Ocean Heat ContentLevitus 2012 Paper on Ocean Heat Content Abraham 2013 Paper on Ocean Heat Content and Sea LevelAbraham 2013 Paper on Ocean Heat Content and Sea Level

23. Ocean Heat Content

24. Ocean Heat and Sea Level

25. Ice is Melting Snow and Ice Data Center State of the Cryosphere

26. Muir Glacier, Alaska, in 1890 (top) and 2005 (bottom) 95% of Earth’s glaciers are in retreat Thanks to Paul Edwards

27. Muir Glacier, Alaska, in 1941 (left) and 2004 (right). Muir Glacier, Alaska, in 1880 (left) and 2005 (right). Thanks to Paul Edwards

28. Decline of Arctic Sea Ice Movie of Arctic Sea Ice NASA Sea Ice Collection Increase of Antarctic Sea Ice

29. Larsen Ice Shelf Collapse January 31, 2002 March 5, 2002

30. Changes in Moisture and Precipitation

31. Precipitation Extreme Events in U.S. For example Groisman et al. or the National Climate AssessmentGroisman et al.National Climate Assessment

32. Just Temperature

33. Current Climate Rood Blog “Just Temperature” For surface air temperature for the entire globe, take a 100 year, 1900-1999, average of each month. Subtract the current month from that average. When was the last month below average? February 1985

34. Time series of February

35. Winter 2014 It was very cold in Michigan in Winter 2014.

36. Global Map January 2014 Temperature Anomaly

37. January 2014 in Perspective U.S.: 53 rd coolest, 5 th driest Global 4 th Warmest

38. January 2014: Global TemperatureGlobal Temperature

39. Role of El Niño (again)

40. Global Map January 2014 Temperature Anomaly Eastern Pacific

43. El Niño – La Niña

44. The Current Climate (Released Monthly) Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center.Climate MonitoringNational Climatic Data Center –http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.htmlhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html State of the Climate: Global Plant Hardiness - 2012

45. Trends in impacts (most briefly)

46. Edges and Accumulation “Edges” are places where we really might be able to see things definitively. What are the edges? –Ice (Phase transition) –Deserts –Seasons Accumulation of heat

47. Project Budburst A community science activity collect observations of the onset of spring –Project BudburstProject Budburst How to observe the onset of spring –National Phenology NetworkNational Phenology Network

48. Project of Trees A community science activity to collect observations on types of trees –Canadian Plant Hardiness SiteCanadian Plant Hardiness Site Paper (including yours truly) on how foresters think about climate change –McKenney et al. (2011)McKenney et al. (2011)

49. Interestingly significant news story

50. Hardiness Map Arbor Day Foundation Maps of Hardiness ZonesArbor Day Foundation Maps of Hardiness Zones Plant Hardiness - 2012

51. Length of Growing Season From Ranga B. Myneni, Boston University

52. Can we get a global perspective from satellites? NDVI: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index –Looks at radiative budgets, measurements, and the absorption of photosynthetically active radiation, relative to the rest of the radiation.

53. How would these changes be revealed?  Changes in vegetation activity can be characterized through 1. changes in growing season 2. changes in “productivity” Increases in Productiviy Increases in growing season JanDecJul Aug Increase NDVI JanDecJul Aug earlier spring delayed fall NDVI From Compton J. Tucker, NASA Goddard

54. From Kirsten de BeuresKirsten de Beures

55. Changes in the Amplitude of the Keeling Curve (Keeling et al, 1996) Amplitude has increased 20% in Hawaii Amplitude has increased 40% in Alaska, Canada The phase, start of the decrease, start of the growing season, has moved forward 7 days.

56. Geographical extent of warming Osborn Spatial Extent of Warming

57. Coherent and Convergent Evidence There is evidence in both the physical climate system and ecosystems of systematic global warming. This evidence shows correlated behavior through many systems. Taken independently each piece could be challenged. Taken together the evidence converges. –Consistent with human-related forcing

58. Summary: Class 10, Winter 2015 Climate variability and trends (Redux) –Internal modes of variability dominate uncertainty in short-term (decades) and at “smaller” spatial scales (continents) –Oceanic circulation critical in decadal variability and predictive skill

59. Summary: Class 10, Winter 2015 Trends in physical climate –Consistent message from ocean, ice, atmosphere, land –Apparent counterfactuals? Further investigation, are they counterfactual? Trends in impacts: –IPCC WG II comprehensive summary –Seasons are changing, plants are changing, birds are changing,

60. Outline: Class 10, Winter 2015 Climate variability and trends (Redux) Trends in physical climate –Ocean –Ice –Rain –Temperature Trends in impacts (most briefly, see IPCC WGII, and reference list)