1. Long-Range Forecasting: Building a Financial Roadmap GFOAz Winter Conference February 15, 2012

2. Contributing to Good Decisions Providing Context for Current Budgets by Identifying Longer-term Impacts Developing a Baseline Forecast Modeling Alternative Scenarios Effective Communication With Policy-Makers

3. Forecasting Framework Ability to Fund Current and Future Operations Compliance with Policies (Fund Balance, Reserves, Debt Limits, etc.) Identification of Trends and Pending Changes Budgetary Impacts of Current and Proposed Policies Prioritization of Services/Projects

4. The Baseline Forecast Policy Assumptions Sources of Information – Internal & External Historical Data Trend Analysis Internally-developed Econometric Models Recognizing Forecasting Bias

5. Effective Communication Provide honest, reliable data to policymakers. Agree on policy assumptions. Provide opportunities and methods to explore alternative scenarios. – Understandable models – Commitment to follow through on recommendations

6. Agree on Assumptions

7. General Fund Projections With No Budget Adjustments

8. General Fund Projections With Proposed Adjustments

9. Performing Arts Fund – Extended Outlook

10. Graphic Presentation of Secondary Levy and Debt with Fixed Rate

11. Property Tax Stabilization Policy Primary levy on existing properties is limited by statutory 2% annual increases Secondary levy on existing properties will increase by Western States CPI, not to exceed 3.3% annually Debt Service Fund balance will be maintained between 4% and 8% of tax-supported debt throughout the 20-year forecast The tax impact of new projects will be provided during the annual CIP process

12. Interactive Model for Property Tax and Debt Service

13. Project Prioritization

14. Graphic Presentation of Prioritization