1. Economic Growth 08 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2012 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

2. Economic Growth Increase in real GDP or real GDP per capita over some time period Percentage rate of growth Growth as a goal Arithmetic of growth: Rule of 70 Approximate number of years required to double real GDP = 70 annual percentage rate of growth LO1 8-2

3. Economic Growth Growth in U.S. real GDP 1950-2009 Increased 6 fold 3.2% per year Growth in U.S. real GDP per capita Increased more than 3 fold 2% per year Qualifications Improved products and services Added leisure Other impacts LO1 8-3

4. Economic Growth (1) Year (2) Real GDP, Billions of 2 2005$ (3) Population, Millions (4) Real GDP, Per Capita, 2005$ (2) ÷ (3) 1950 $ 2006152 $12,197 1960 2831181 15,640 1970 4270205 20,829 1980 5839228 25,610 1990 8034250 32,136 2000 11,226282 39,809 2009 12,987307 42,303 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, http://www.bea.gov and U.S. Census Bureau, http://www.census.govhttp://www.bea.govhttp://www.census.gov Real GDP and Real GDP per Capita LO1 8-4

5. Modern Economic Growth Began with the Industrial Revolution in late 1700s Ongoing increases in living standards Time for leisure Social change Democracy Human lifespan doubled LO2 8-5

6. Modern Economic Growth Began in Britain Has spread slowly Starting date main cause of worldwide differences in living standards Catching up is possible Leader countries invent technology Follower countries adopt technology Can grow faster LO2 8-6

7. Modern Economic Growth Real GDP Real GDP Average annual per capita, per capita, growth rate, Country 1960 2007 1960-2007 United States $ 14,766 $42,887 2.3% United Kingdom 11,257 32,1812.3 France 9,347 29,6632.5 Ireland 6,666 41,6254.0 Japan 5,473 30,5853.7 Singapore 4,149 44,6195.2 Hong Kong 3,849 43,1215.3 South Korea 1,765 23,8505.7 Figures are in 2005 dollars Source: Penn World Table version 6.3, pwt.econ.upenn.edu LO2 8-7

8. Modern Economic Growth LO3 8-8

9. Institutional Structures of Growth Strong property rights Patents and copyrights Efficient financial institutions Literacy and widespread education Free trade Competitive market system LO3 8-9

10. Determinants of Growth Supply factors Increases in quantity and quality of natural resources Increases in quality and quantity of human resources Increases in the supply (or stock) of capital goods Improvements in technology LO3 8-10

11. Determinants of Growth Demand factor Households, businesses, and government must purchase the economy’s expanding output Efficiency factor Must achieve economic efficiency and full employment LO3 8-11

12. a Economic Growth b D Production Possibilities LO3 B A C Consumer Goods Capital Goods c From Chapter 1: 8-12

13. Labor and Productivity Size of employed labor force Average hours of work Labor Inputs (hours of work) Technological advance Quantity of capital Education and training Allocative efficiency Other Labor Productivity (average output per hour) Real GDP Real GDP = hours of work x labor productivity x = LO3 8-13

14. U.S. Economic Growth Item 1953 Q2 To 1973 Q4 1973 Q4 To 1995 Q4 1995 Q4 To 2001 Q1 2001 Q1 To 2007 Q3 Projected 2009 Q1 To 2020 Q4 Increase in real GDP3.62.83.82.62.5 Increase in quantity of labor 1.11.31.4-0.10.2 Increase in labor productivity 2.51.52.42.72.3 Accounting for the Growth of U.S. Real GDP, 1953-2007, Plus Projection from 2009-2020 (Average Percentage Changes) Source: Derived from Economic Report of the President, 2008, p. 45; and Economic Report of the President, 2010, p. 76 LO3 8-14

15. Accounting for Growth Factors affecting productivity growth Technological advance (40%) Quantity of capital (30%) Education and training (15%) Economies of scale and resource allocation (15%) LO3 8-15

16. Accounting for Growth Average Test Scores of Eighth Grade Students in Math and Science, 2007 Mathematics Science LO3 8-16

17. Productivity Growth Average rate of growth 1.5% per year 1973-1995 2.8% per year 1995-2009 Affects real output, real income, and real wages Pay higher wages without lowering profit LO4 8-17

18. Productivity Growth Microchip/information technology New firms and increasing returns Sources of increasing returns More specialized inputs Spreading of development costs Simultaneous consumption Network effects Learning by doing Global competition LO4 8-18

19. Productivity Growth LO5 8-19

20. Economic Growth Is economic growth desirable and sustainable? The antigrowth view Environmental and resource issues In defense of economic growth Higher standard of living Human imagination can solve environmental and resource issues LO5 8-20

21. Economic Growth Growth is the path to greater material abundance Results in higher standards of living Increases leisure time Allows for the expansion and application of human knowledge LO5 8-21

22. Alternative Thoughts on Economic Success Is GDP growth an effective measure of economic success? Consider another school of thought: Buddhist Economics Using consumption (e.g. GDP) as a measure of well being is irrational Alternatively, consider that ethics based analysis is more rational (I) minimize suffering, (II) simplifying desires, (III) non-violence, (IV) genuine care, and (V) generosity

23. Alternative Thoughts on Economic Success E. F. Schumacher – well known economist that wrote “Small is Beautiful” in 1973 Energy Crisis underway resulting from the Arab Crude Oil Embargo The world woke up to the fact that hydrocarbons were finite on planet Earth Happiness should not come from consumption and the reckless use of finite resources, but rather should come from wanting fewer “things”

24. Alternative Thoughts on Economic Success Gross National Happiness A worldwide believe system that focuses on psychological well- being, rather than consumption Emotional balance, mental health, spirituality and quality of life

25. Global Perspective LO5 8-25

26. Economic Growth in China Growth averages past 25 years: 9% annual growth output 8% annual growth output per capita Labor more productive More international trade Transition to market economy Joined WTO 2001 Financial system remains weak Income inequality across areas LO5 8-26