1. Latest science on projected climate change and potential impacts in Namaqualand NDM and CSA Partners’ Conference 13 and 14 March 2012 Kokerboom Conference Centre, Springbok Prof Guy Midgley Chief Director South African National Biodiversity Institute; IPCC co-ordinating lead author

2. Key points Climate change not “doom & gloom” Simple in principle, complex in detail Namaqualand is ecologically special because of stable climate history Regional understanding of climate change and impacts is now advancing Climate change adaptation: useful to consider short, medium and long term vulnerabilities and responses

3. Fundamentals CO 2 makes up only 0.0375%! Why is an extra 0.0002% per year important? ~78% Nitrogen ~21% Oxygen ~0.09% Argon Trace gases do ALL the warming

4. Recent Global Fossil Fuel Emissions CO 2 emissions (Pg C y -1 ) CO 2 emissions (Pg CO 2 y - 1 ) Growth rate 1990-1999 1 % per year Growth rate 2000-2009 2.5 % per year Time (y) 2009 : Emissions:8.4±0.5 PgC Growth rate: -1.3% 1990 level: +37% 2000-2008 Growth rate: +3.2% 2010 (projected): Growth rate: >3% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 9 8 7 6

5. Most observed warming since the mid-20th century is very likely the result (confidence >90%) of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations – warming is unequivocal IPCC (2007) Climate change is happening

6. Change

7. Warming oceans Sea surface temperature Trend in SST since 1982 using the more reliable Reynolds SST Combination of observation and satellite remote sensing Satellite remote sensing for oceans, high resolution for the last 30 years. Some regions have warmed, some have cooled due to stronger wind. The warming is clearly not uniform.

8. South African land based measurements show warming (1960 to 2003) Adapted from Kruger and Shongwe (2004)

9. © CSIR 2007 www.csir.co.za Hadley Center: CRU 3.1 linear temperature trend 1961-2009 Strong warming has occurred over the central parts of southern Africa, including the central interior of South Africa Warming more moderate along the coastal areas, except south-western SA and southern Mozambique

10. sciencephotolibrary

11. Namaqualand is special

12. Paleo-climate stability and ecological implications Karoo endemic bird species richness Present 6000 ya 21000 ya 24000 ya (weaker upwelling)

13. Rainfall variability, coastal fog, El Nino and Namaqualand

14. Sea surface temperature change during EL NINO Orange warmer than normal blue colder than normal Rainfall change during EL NINO Blue/green is wetter than normal, yellow/red is dryer than normal.

15. El Nino effects on wind Change in wind speed and direction during EL NINO in austral summer

16. Or periodicity ? Cumulative N/S wind anomalies -50 -25 0 25 50 75 Jan-61Jan-64 Jan-67Jan-70Jan-73Jan-76Jan-79Jan-82Jan-85Jan-88Jan-91Jan-94 Jan-97Jan-00Jan-03 Jan-06 north/south wind anomalies Lüderitz wind Mowe wind Neville Sweijd ACCESS/CSIR and Anja van der Plas Namibia, Min. FMR

17. Climate: Future projections Under relatively unmitigated global emissions scenario Air temperature: Coastal regions warm 1-2°C ~ 2050 3-4°C ~ 2100 Interior regions warm 3-4°C ~ 2050 6-7°C ~ 2100

18. Climate: Future projections Rainfall change – uncertainty due to lack of credible regional modelling efforts, of decadal variability, reliance on statistical extrapolation Summer Autumn Winter Spring Upper 75% Median Lower 25% ~ 2050 -15 mm 20-10 mm 30 -20 mm 20 -15 mm 20 5 mm 35 -5 mm 40 -55 mm 0-25 mm 5-30 mm 10-20 mm 30 5 mm 40 5 mm 45