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ABC HOLDINGS LIMITED Results Presentation for the year ended 31 December 2008
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2 Economic Environment Financial Performance Overview Income statement review Balance sheet review Outlook Challenges & outlook Capitalisation Dividend AGENDA
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3 Country GDP (USDm) 2008 GDP Growth rate 2008 Banking Deposits (USDm) 2008 Banking Credit (USDm) 2008 Banking Assets (USDm) 2008 Population 2008 est (m) No. of banks Botswana11,7283.3%4,9912,2516,4491.812 Mozambique10,1006.5%2,9651,6314,23521.212 Tanzania21,3467.5%4,6803,2016,32540.136 Zambia13,4845.8%2,3541,6853,36312.314 Zimbabwe*2,000-10.5%3775094512.428 ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT & INDUSTRY ATTRACTIVENESS Sources: - IMF – World economic outlook database: October 08 -Central Banks statistics *Estimates
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4 Due to the negative impact of the global economy, GDP growth slowed down in all Southern African economies Zimbabwe registered negative GDP growth for the tenth consecutive year Commodity prices weakened significantly in sympathy with the global economic downturn Banking assets however continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace Botswana boasts the highest GDP per Capita and highest banking assets per Capita but other countries are making strides ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
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5 Average inflation was in double digit level ( except in Zimbabwe, where it was well in excess of this) Generally all currencies weakened particularly in the second half of 2008 Zimbabwe in a hyperinflationary environment; Last official inflation at 231m% in July 2008 ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
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6 Country Inflation Rate Dec-2008 Avg. TB Yield Rate* Dec-2008 Avg or Prime Lending Rates 2008 Avg. Prime Lending Rates 2007 Botswana12.6%12.58%16.6%16.2% Mozambique10.4%13.72%20.1% Tanzania10.3%8.11%13.6%14.4% Zambia12.4%12.20%25.2%25.0% Zimbabwe231 m%***340%**3,700%559.0% * 90 day ** 1 year ***July 2008 ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT– Inflation & Interest Rates
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7 ZWD Old Mutual implied rate ZWD revalued in 2008 To 1 BWP31 Dec-0831 Dec-07 United States Dollar0.130.17 Mozambique Metical 3.384.30 South African Rand1.251.13 Tanzania Shilling174191 Zambian Kwacha636640 Zimbabwe Dollar88 Quad0.0001 Quad ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT– Exchange Rates
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8 ZWD Old Mutual implied rate ZWD revalued in 2008 To 1 US dollar31 Dec-0831 Dec-07 Botswana Pula7.546.02 Mozambique Metical 25.5025.67 South African Rand 9.406.81 Tanzania Shilling1 3151 146 Zambian Kwacha4 7953 850 Zimbabwe Dollar665 Quad*0.001 Quad ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT– Exchange Rates
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9 International Equity Market Cap, US$ Trillions NYSE Nasdaq Tokyo SE London Shanghai 9.2 15.6 3.1 4.3 2.4 4 1.9 3.93.6 1.4
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10 International Banks Market cap Source: Bloomberg, March 9 th 2009
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11 Stock Market Cap in Some African Equities (2007 vs 2008)
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12 International Commodity Prices GoldPlatinumPalladiumCopperNickelOil Aluminum US$/oz US$/t US$/barr elUS$/t Dec-07 8051,4883516,63826,143912,379 Mar-08 9642,0464898,39830,9971062,988 Jun-08 8892,0384508,26022,5311342,958 Sep-08 8331,2232486,99017,7911042,525 Dec-08 8168351753,0669,678431,582 Jan-09 8599501893,16411,142451,420 Feb-09 9431,0362063,31410,406391,330
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13 International Commodity Prices
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14 Overview Income Statement Review Balance Sheet Review FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
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15 Attributable profit at BWP86m is down from BWP 124m in prior year Net asset value up by 39% from BWP 314m to BWP B438m Net interest income for financial operations up by 40% from BWP 127 m to BWP 178 m Total income up to BWP 401m from BWP 339 million Return on equity of 23% compared to 42% in 2007 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE - Overview
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16 Balance sheet growth of 38% to BWP 4 billion Loans and advances up by 80% to BWP 2.2 billion, reflecting impact of Tier II capital injection Deposits increased by 40% to BWP 2.8 billion FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE - Overview
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17 BWPDec 08% change Dec 07 Attributable profits (‘000s)86,029-30%123,523 Basic EPS (Thebe)60.4-37 %95.3 Dividend per Share ( Thebe)8.00-43 %14.00 Cost to income ratio59%12 %47% Net asset value (‘000s)437,77740 %313,813 NAV per share3.0730 %2.37 Total Assets (‘000s)3,967,90935 %2,930,121 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE – Salient features
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18 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE – Five year earnings overview
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19 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE – Five year NAV profile
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20 BWP’000sDec 08 % contribution Dec 07 % contribution % change ABC Botswana13,19322%7,76914%70% ABC Mozambique16,64427%13,30123%25% ABC Tanzania*13,17121%11,80421%12% ABC Zambia(12,168)-20%(3,584)-6%(240%) ABC Zimbabwe25,49042%27,86149%(9%) Microfin Zambia4,9458%2100%2257% Financial institutions 61,275100%57,361100%7% Other Operations24,75466,162(63%) TOTAL86,029123,523(30%) *Adjusted for minority interest & includes TDFL FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: Attributable Profit per Subsidiary
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21 All Banking operations profitable, except ABC Zambia ABC Zambia’s poor performance due to a combination of high impairments and exchange losses in fourth quarter Zimbabwe performance adversely affected by reduced investment income as economy reached meltdown point Strong growth in total income in Botswana, Mozambique and Tanzania Massive depreciation of the Zimbabwe dollar continued Zimbabwe contribution to total income down to 15% from 35% Quality of the book has marginally improved INCOME STATEMENT REVIEW
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22 NII increased by 72% to BWP 184m NII contribution to total income increased from 32% to 42% NII now covers 78% of total costs, up from 67% in 2007 All banking operations, with the exception of Zimbabwe, showed significant growth in NII INCOME STATEMENT REVIEW
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23 Non-interest income declined by 7% to BWP 216m. Investment income in Zimbabwe declined 78% from BWP 116m to BWP 26m Impairment charge of BWP 44m up 35% compared to 2007. Botswana and Zambia most affected. Operating expenditure increased by 48% to BWP 237m Increased costs are largely due to additional staff for the new retail business and strengthening of credit department. INCOME STATEMENT REVIEW
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24 BWP’000s Dec 08 % contributionDec 07 % contribution % change ABC Botswana82,93421%50,67615%64% ABC Mozambique62,15116%41,87512%48% ABC Tanzania**57,92814%36,43011%59% ABC Zambia36,6129%30,2759%21% Microfin Zambia49,02712%28,6478%71% ABC Zimbabwe35,8589%39,40212%(9%) Total Fin OPS324,51081%227,30567%43% Other Operations76,13719%111,72433%(32%) TOTAL GROUP400,647100%339,029100%18% *Before impairments **Including TDFL INCOME STATEMENT REVIEW – Total income*
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25 BWP’000sDec 08 % contribution Dec 07 % contribution % change ABC Botswana41,38922%29,48327%40% ABC Mozambique34,29519%23,26922%47% ABC Tanzania29,09016%13,69913%112% ABC Zambia22,78212%16,11615%41% Microfin Zambia50,77828%28,86827%76% ABC Zimbabwe670%15,42914%(100%) Total Fin OPS178,40197%126,864118%41% Other Operations6,0113%(19,576)(18%)131% TOTAL GROUP184,412100%107,288100%72% *Including TDFL INCOME STATEMENT REVIEW – Net interest income
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26 Ave. Yield on IEA Ave. Cost Spread 2008 Spread 2007 ABC Botswana13.0%(10.0)%3.0%1.3% ABC Mozambique12.3%(5.8)%6.5%5.4% ABC Tanzania10.4%(6.2)%4.2%3.7% ABC Zambia15.8%(8.9)%6.9%4.9% ABC Zimbabwe1.0%0%1.0%20.5% Microfin Zambia66.7%(22.1)%44.6%43.9% INCOME STATEMENT REVIEW – Net interest income Spread has increased across the board
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27 BWP’000sDec 08 % contribution Dec 07 % contribution % change ABC Botswana41,54519%21,1939%96% ABC Mozambique27,85613%18,6068%50% ABC Tanzania*28,83813%23,62510%22% ABC Zambia13,8306%14,1606%-2% Microfin Zambia(1,752)1%(222)-%-689% ABC Zimbabwe35,79117%23,97310%49% Total Fin OPS146,10868%101,33544% ABCH and other70,12732%130,40656%-46% TOTAL GROUP216,235100%231,741100%-7% *Including TDFL INCOME STATEMENT REVIEW – Other income
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28 BWP’000sDec 08Dec 07 % change Gains investment securities25,931101,438(74%) Dividends received3,3423,1137% Fee & commission income69,82765,3227% Fx trading income & currency revaluation 29,4489,658205% Fair value gains on investment properties 45,87226,40874% Fair value adjustment: derivative instruments 38,585(10,073)483% Rental and other income3,23035,87591% Total216,235231,741(7%) INCOME STATEMENT REVIEW – Other income
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29 Excluding impairments Increase in NII contribution due to increase in lending book NII income covers 78% of costs, up from 67% in 2007 INCOME STATEMENT REVIEW – Total income composition
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30 Due to retail banking roll out Cost containment strategy Imperative to strengthen cost containment measures INCOME STATEMENT REVIEW – Operating expenditure
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31 Cost to income ratio up from 47% to 59% Head count increased from 395 to 484 due to new retail banking and credit department staff Employee costs accounted for 50% of total costs Operating expenditure up 48% to BWP 237m Marketing costs set to increase in support of growth targets and retail roll out INCOME STATEMENT REVIEW – Operating expenditure
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32 Total employee costs up 31% from BWP91m to BWP119 m Employee costs 50% of total costs Staff compliment of 484 (2007: 395) Staff compliment up by 89 people mainly due to retail & credit Head count per Operation
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33 Balance sheet growth of 38% to BWP 4 billion Loans and advances up by 80% to BWP 2.2 billion, reflecting impact of Tier II capital injection Deposits increased by 40% to BWP 2.8 billion Net asset value up by 39% from BWP 314m to BWP B438m Zimbabwe FCTR up BWP 95m in 2008 BALANCE SHEET REVIEW
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34 38% balance sheet growth compared to December 07 sustained balance sheet growth since 2004 Compound annual growth rate of 23% BALANCE SHEET REVIEW - Total Assets
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35 40% growth in Deposits Botswana continues to lead with deposits of BWP 1.3 billion Growth of 118% & 63% in Mozambique & Tanzania respectively; albeit from a low base BALANCE SHEET REVIEW - Geographic split of deposits
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36 80% growth in Loans. Growth in excess of 48% in all countries except Zimbabwe Growth shows impact of capital injection in late 2007 BALANCE SHEET REVIEW - Geographical Split of Loans
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37 BWP’000 Capital* Dec-08 FCTR Dec-08 Capital* Dec-07 FCTR Dec-07 ABC Botswana 114,012-99,856- ABC Mozambique 157,77413,951104,712(7,789) ABC Tanzania** 143,01511796,6017,231 ABC Zambia 81,9525,02183,7253,316 Microfin Zambia 20,8682,11015,2752,686 ABC Zimbabwe 143,484(500,857)110,035(405,766) *Including Tier II **Including TDFL Zimbabwe FCTR up BWP 95m since Dec 07 BALANCE SHEET REVIEW - Capital
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38 Dec 08Dec 07 Botswana16%18% Mozambique28%44% Tanzania15%28% Zambia24%29% ABC Zimbabwe31%26% Healthy capital adequacy ratios BALANCE SHEET REVIEW - Capital Adequacy
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39 Rights issue postponed as a result of the turmoil in the global financial markets IFC subscription of 13.9 million shares, bringing shareholding to 10.7% in January 2008 IFC convertible loan still to be drawn down as Group is in the process of clearing outstanding conditions precedent. Draw down imminent. All conditions precedent on the CVCI convertible loan fulfilled. Drawdown in the coming weeks CAPITALISATION
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40 Retail Banking head office now appropriately staffed First few branches to be opened in July 2009 Funds raised from IFC and CVCI to be used for capitalisation of this business Largely driven by state of the art technology RETAIL BANKING
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41 Need to strengthen operations in the face of the uncertainty in global markets Directors propose that a final divided be passed DIVIDEND
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42 Environment expected to be challenging during most of 2009 and 2010 due to a deterioration in the global markets Major thrust will be consolidation and ensuring modest growth notwithstanding high costs as a result of retail banking Proactive management of the loan book Support clients in the face of adversity Introducing fresh thinking and smart banking OUTLOOK & CHALLENGES
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43 Changing the business model –People, processes, systems and culture Branch profitability still estimated to be between 12 to 24 months Deposit mobilization remains a key focus area for the group, particularly in Zambia OUTLOOK & CHALLENGES
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