1. Regional Florida Catastrophic Planning: Focus on South Florida, including the Herbert Hoover Dike Region April 5, 2007

2. Welcome Carla Boyce, Information and Planning Chief, Florida Division of Emergency Management Rand Napoli, Lead Planner, IEM

3. Overview Florida Catastrophic Planning Project Goals Phase 1: To develop a regional response and recovery plan for the counties and communities surrounding Lake Okeechobee in the event of a Herbert Hoover Dike (HHD) failure. Phase 2: To develop a regional response and recovery plan, along w/decision making tools/matrices for a catastrophic hurricane impacting South Florida.

4. Scenario-Driven Planning Workshops

5. Scenario-Driven Planning  The scenario sets a “catastrophic bar” to establish the necessary capacity of the plans.  Participants at all levels of government contribute to the planning solutions.  Operational knowledge and experience make the resulting plans more viable for response and recovery activities.

6. Overview of Florida Catastrophic Planning Project Purpose  Planning Team will assist the State in a host of planning activities Direct technical assistance to target counties Conduct workshops, meetings & research Coordinate w/State, local, tribal, federal, private enterprise, non-profit and Federal stakeholders  Ensure a “local up” approach that results in regionally sound, comprehensive and cohesive planning efforts

7. Overview of Florida Catastrophic Planning Project Purpose  Develop decision matrices & identify resource shortfalls that can focus additional planning activities  Examine policies and procedures to identify challenges to coordinated response and recovery activities

8. Comprehensive & Cohesive Planning  County Annexes Comprehensive Emergency Management Plans Herbert Hoover Dike Annexes Catastrophic Plan Annexes  Regional Annexes HHD Annex Catastrophic Annex  Regional Evacuation Studies Behavioral Studies Vulnerability Assessment  Statewide Sheltering Plans Up Next - Rand Napoli, Lead Planner

9. Local Planning Begun Tribal Plans Tribal CEMP Up Next - Rand Napoli, Lead Planner

10. Technical Assistance  2 member FEMA team  1 Technical Lead  7 member Florida team 3 working w/Tallahassee 4 assigned to South Florida

11. Workshops & Exercises  November 2006 – HHD Kickoff  February 2007 – Regional Workshop joining Phase 1 and Phase 2  March 15, 2007– Agency Head & Emergency Coordinating Officer Project Orientation  April 2007 – State-Level Workshop

12. Workshops & Exercises  May 2007 – Statewide Hurricane Exercise  June 2007 – Regional Workshop in Miami-Dade (local focus)  Fall 2007 – State-Federal Workshop  Winter 2007/2008 – Second Regional Workshop  Spring 2008 – Target Completion & Preparation for Statewide Exercise in May of ‘08 Up Next – Carla Boyce, Plans Chief – FDEM

13. The Scenario – Hurricane Ono Coordinated Research, Realistic, Comprehensive

15. Planning Scenario – Path of Hurricane Ono

19. Concerns  Inland Flooding from high rainfall totals  Storm Surge Cities of Okeechobee, Pahokee, Belle Glade, South Bay, Moore Haven, Clewiston, Brighton Indian Reservation  Canal and River Flooding Port Mayaca, St. Lucie Canal, Kissimmee River, Caloosahatchee River

23. Herbert Hoover Dike Breaches

24. Projected Consequences Coordinated Analysis, Guided by Subject Matter Experts

25. Herbert Hoover Dike Consequences  The damage in this discussion results only from breaches of the Herbert Hoover Dike (HHD). This discussion does not consider the damage caused by wind, which is covered in the section on The Broader South Florida Scenario, or the affects of lake surge or precipitation  Approximately 130 homes are flooded and some 600 more are surrounded by water as a result of the failure of the S80 structure in Martin County. The latter homes are cut off from normal access routes, making access to supplies or emergency services more difficult.

26. Herbert Hoover Dike & S80 Consequences From Breaches and Structure Failure ONLY  In Reach 1 (Palm Beach County), the residences of approximately 4,700 households are flooded to a depth of five to thirteen feet.  In Reach 2 (Glades, Hendry, and Palm Beach County), the homes of approximately 4,800 households are within the area that would be covered by one to six feet of water.

27. Herbert Hoover Dike Consequences AgencyLocationDepth in (ft) Belle Glade Police DepartmentBelle Glade4–5 Clewiston Police DepartmentClewiston4–5 Hendry Co. Sheriff Sub-OfficeClewiston1 Pahokee Police DepartmentPahokee4–5 Royal Palm Beach Police DepartmentRoyal Palm Beach4–5 Law Enforcement Facilities

28. Herbert Hoover Dike Consequences Fire Departments NameLocationDepth in (ft) Clewiston Volunteer F.D.Clewiston1 Pahokee F.D.Pahokee4–5 Fire Station 71, PBCPalm Beach Co.4–5 Royal Palm Beach F.D.Royal Palm Beach4–5

29. Herbert Hoover Dike Consequences Utilities (Gas/Electric) NameLocationDepth in (ft) Glades Gas and ElectricBelle Glade4–5 Clewiston SubstationClewiston1 Clewiston Switching StationClewiston1 Gator GeneratingPahokee4–5 Osceola Co-generationPahokee4–5

30. Planning Scenario – Path of Hurricane Ono

31. Consequence Projections County Percent with No Damage Percent with Minor Damage Percent with Moderate Damage Percent with Severe Damage Percent Destroyed Percent with Any Damage Broward0.08%1.36%8.56%36.05%53.95%99.92% Collier94.96%3.87%1.04%0.10%0.03%5.04% Glades4.33%9.98%22.40%23.75%39.54%95.67% Hendry8.72%14.74%21.13%19.74%35.66%91.28% Lee90.82%7.55%1.45%0.14%0.04%9.18% Martin32.32%32.61%22.24%8.73%4.10%67.68% Miami-Dade1.78%5.87%14.47%36.28%41.60%98.22% Monroe96.95%2.56%0.46%0.03%0.01%3.05% Okeechobee16.45%17.24%22.58%16.82%26.90%83.55% Palm Beach0.30%2.46%9.57%33.47%54.20%99.70% Total18.72%4.91%9.81%27.88%38.68%81.28% Percent of Building Stock by Wind Damage Category

32. Consequence Projections Number of Buildings by Wind Damage Category County Number of Structures in County Total Structures Affected Number of Structures with No Damage Number of Structures with Minor Damage Number of Structures with Moderate Damage Number of Structures with Severe Damage Number of Structures Destroyed Broward464,079463,7113686,33039,702167,294250,384 Collier92,9354,68688,2493,5959689529 Glades5,2795,0512285271,1821,2542,087 Hendry11,59910,5881,0111,7102,4512,2904,137 Lee193,97917,802176,17714,6522,81326571 Martin53,27436,05517,21917,37311,8474,6512,183 Miami-Dade531,131521,6679,46431,18876,840192,677220,962 Monroe43,3661,32442,0421,109200123 Okeechobee14,52612,1362,3902,5053,2802,4433,908 Palm Beach 397,425396,2271,1989,77638,022133,020215,409 Total1,807,5931,469,245338,34888,766177,305504,002699,173

33. Consequence Projections County Percent with No Damage Percent with Minor Damage Percent with Moderate Damage Percent with Severe Damage Percent Destroyed Percent with Any Damage Broward8%0%2%37%52%92% Collier88%7%4%1%0%12% Glades1%2%11%45%42%99% Hendry2%4%14%44%36%98% Lee78%14%6%2%0%22% Martin14%16%27%34%11%89% Miami-Dade7%1%3%38%51%93% Monroe90%6%3%1%0%10% Okeechobee7%11%22%37%23%93% Palm Beach7%0%2%35%55%93% Percent of Building Stock by Wind Damage Category

34. Consequence Projections Number of Buildings by Wind Damage Category County Number of Structures in County Total Structures Affected Number of Structures with No Damage Number of Structures with Minor Damage Number of Structures with Moderate Damage Number of Structures with Severe Damage Number of Structures Destroyed Broward 463,866463,8491779611,665111,965339,636 Collier 92,8889,84483,0447,0232,323406139 Glades 5,2735,230431846571,2603,135 Hendry 11,60311,3352688301,9112,6555,935 Lee 193,90536,436157,46927,0597,7401,302409 Martin 53,25147,9525,29911,86115,56512,2728,277 Miami-Dade 530,920529,6571,2635,05224,254142,045358,517 Monroe 43,3663,60239,7642,50788815651 Okeechobee 14,52413,4271,0971,6202,6792,9356,195 Palm Beach 397,232397,182501,15510,73189,395296,094 Total1,806,8281,518,514288,31458,08778,412364,3921,018,387

35. Consequence Projections Number of Buildings by Wind Damage Category County Number of Structures in County Total Structures Affected Number of Structures with No Damage Number of Structures with Minor Damage Number of Structures with Moderate Damage Number of Structures with Severe Damage Number of Structures Destroyed Broward 463,866463,8491779611,665111,965339,636 Collier 92,8889,84483,0447,0232,323406139 Glades 5,2735,230431846571,2603,135 Hendry 11,60311,3352688301,9112,6555,935 Lee 193,90536,436157,46927,0597,7401,302409 Martin 53,25147,9525,29911,86115,56512,2728,277 Miami-Dade 530,920529,6571,2635,05224,254142,045358,517 Monroe 43,3663,60239,7642,50788815651 Okeechobee 14,52413,4271,0971,6202,6792,9356,195 Palm Beach 397,232397,182501,15510,73189,395296,094 Total1,806,8281,518,514288,31458,08778,412364,3921,018,387 Up Next – Rand Napoli, Lead Planner

36. South Florida Catastrophic Planning Workshops

37. Regional Catastrophic Planning Workshop June 2007 Regional Workshop Involve local, tribal, state, federal, private industry, and other non-governmental members of the emergency management community. Continue the process of developing consistent regional plans for a catastrophic hurricane event in South Florida, including a significant breach of the Herbert Hoover Dike.

38. Workshop Structure  Scenario-driven planning workshop not an exercise Worked toward consistent planning assumptions, issues and constraints  Continuous breakout rooms  Planning Team  Unified Command Provided clarification, addressed conflicts, identified common threads & gaps to bring back to State level workshop  Morning plenary briefings Allowed visibility to all participants on common issues & needs Allowed input across disciplines Identified need for additional participation from other disciplines/stakeholders Up Next – Carla Boyce

39. Decision Matrices & Resource Shortfalls

40.  Assess required capabilities based on Catastrophic Scenario What do we need to do?  Develop scalable and adaptable methods, formulas, or matrices that indicate the quantity and type of assets needed to meet the capability What do we need to do it?

41. Decision Matrices & Resource Shortfalls  Determine available resources within local, regional or States inventories, including pre- disaster contracts What do we already have?  Establish protocols & policies that clearly articulate how to meet both required capabilities and fill gaps and identify resource limitations How are we going to get our hands on what we have, and how will we get more?

42. Decision Matrices & Resource Shortfalls  Integrate with other scenario-based resource planning schemes across disciplines What does this mean for the rest of the response and recovery activities?  Sustain the planning process to facilitate updates and changes

43. The Word Problem  SF impacted by a Category 5 Hurricane making landfall 35mi N of Miami producing upwards of 22” of rainfall in and north of Lake Okeechobee. Winds and surge damage or destroy nearly 700,000 structures. Note: this doesn’t include the Counties to the North West of Lake Okeechobee where the storm exits FL as a Category 2.  Winds from the storm leave large amounts of debris in canals used by SFWMD to control water movement in South Florida making it difficult to impossible to reduce flood waters impacting the environment, economy, citizens and visitors. Flood waters are expected to remain for as many as 22 days – or more

44. Key Assumptions  Estimated Population – 6,358,934  2,867,295 people are projected to evacuate in advance of the storm  796,214 people are expected to seek public shelter (10’s of miles)  3,826,822 homes will be destroyed  Up to 3,000,000 customers will be w/o power from Miami-Dade to Indian River on the East and Manatee/Sarasota on the West

45. Pick ONE – Break It Down  Pick ONE decision point and break it down Clearly identify the GOAL Identify the CRITICAL criteria/information needed on which to base a decision Document what you know from past experience Calculate/Adjust/Recalculate/Cross Check Repeat as necessary Don’t forget LOGISTICAL support for your staff, mutual aid assets, volunteers Up Next - Rand Napoli, Lead Planner

46. Pick ONE – Break It Down  Pick ONE decision point and break it down Clearly identify the GOAL Complete Primary Search & Rescue in 24 Hrs Identify the CRITICAL criteria/information needed on which to base a decision # Strike Teams # of hours/day – operational period # of structures damaged or destroyed

47. Pick ONE – Break It Down Document what you know from past experience Can’t safely search at night How many workers to safely search a structure How much time to safely search a structure Deployment time – (notification to operational) Calculate/Adjust/Recalculate/Cross Check Repeat as necessary Don’t forget LOGISTICAL support for your staff, mutual aid assets, volunteers

48. Example – Search and Rescue Structures per Strike Teams per Op Period500CountyStructures Strike Teams Personn el Hours per Day12Miami-Dade352,33294018,800 Structures per Strike Team per Day500Broward335,25289517,900 Palm Beach293,88178415,680 Hours Allowed24Martin8,36823460 Deployment Time6Okeechobee6,18517340 Hours Available18Hendry5,91616320 Glades3,1349180 Lee408240 Monroe50120 7.2Total1,005,5262,68753,740

49. Examples - SAR Structures per Strike Teams per Op Period500 CountyStructuresStrike TeamsPersonnel Hours per Day12Miami-Dade352,3322575,140 Structures per Strike Team per Day500Broward335,2522444,880 Palm Beach293,8812144,280 Hours Allowed72Martin8,3687140 Deployment Time6Okeechobee6,1855100 Hours Available66Hendry5,9165100 Glades3,134360 Lee408120 Monroe50120 7.2Total1,005,52673714,740

50. Pick ONE – Break It Down  Pick ONE decision point and break it down Clearly identify the GOAL Provide 3 Hot Meals/day for survivors in impacted area Identify the CRITICAL criteria/information needed on which to base a decision How many survivors remained in the area –Approximately 4.3 Million Quantity of food/meal How many staff required to prepare/deliver

51. Pick ONE – Break It Down Document what you know from past experience Operational Period Deployment time – (notification to operational) Staff required to prepare X number meals Adjust/Recalculate/Cross Check/ - Repeat Don’t forget LOGISTICAL support for your staff, mutual aid assets, volunteers

52. Meal count estimation formula  How to estimate meal counts for the first 14 days Category 1 – Population X 15% Category 2 – Population X 33% Category 3 – Population X 90% Category 4 – Population X 350%  For estimates past 14 days use actual reported meals counts for Day 1 through Day 7

53. # Meals = # resources required

54. Examples - LE Intersection Control Critical Intersections Number of IntersectionsManpower Needed Personnel Required Major (>6 lanes) 6636 Minor (<=6 lanes)339 Railroad Crossings 111 Total0 Number of Shifts3 Total Personnel Required138

55. Examples - Law Enforcement/Security Roadway Security Access Type Miles of Critical RoadMiles of Coverage Personnel Required Low 5.510 Medium 151 High25 2 50 Total75 Number of Shifts3 Total Personnel Required225

56. Examples – Law Enforcement/Security Facility/Infrastructure TypeNumberOfficers per Facility Personnel Required Shelter25 1 Hospital5 4 20 Banks25 2 50 PODs10 220 Consumer-Related Facilities20 1 Governmental Facilities 251 Public Utilities15 1 Total for Infrastructure/Facilities175 Total Personnel per Shift525 Up Next – Carla Boyce, Plans Chief - FDEM

58. Next Steps – April 16 th & 17 th Preparation/Assignments

59. 2007 Workshop Objectives  Bring State & Federal stakeholders to the table Agency heads Support agencies/partners Private enterprise, faith-based and non-profit partners  Continue cohesive planning across agencies  Focused on realistic needs/resource shortfalls of the locals

60. 2007 Workshop Objectives  Assess required capabilities based on Catastrophic Scenario (State Perspective).  Develop scalable and adaptable methods, formulas, or matrices that indicate the quantity and type of assets needed to meet the capability (tools of the trade).  Determine available resources within regional or States inventories, including pre- disaster contracts.

61. Decision Matrices & Resource Shortfalls  Identify resource limitations.  Establish plans, protocols & policies that clearly articulate how to meet both required capabilities and fill gaps.  Sustain the planning process to facilitate updates and changes.

62. In Preparation – Food for Thought  Making the workshops effective.  Based on things identified at the local focused workshop.  Support of decision makers, municipalities, other ECOs, and Agency Heads.

63. ESF18 – Economic Damage Assessment (HHD)  One of the most significant impacts of the scenario will be the damages to agricultural interests in the Lake Okeechobee area.  This translates into significant economic impacts, locally, statewide and even nationally.  Preparation will make the breakout sessions at the April workshop more effective.

64. Infrastructure – Debris clearing in waterways  Though the focus is “local up” this particular issue crosses multiple jurisdictional lines.  Planning for this issue will require strong support from the State level to coordinate and identify local impacts.  Preparation will not only make the breakout sessions at the April workshop more effective, but will assist planning efforts at the local level.

65. ESF2 - Communications  Common throughout ALL breakout sessions was interoperable communications.  Emergency management personnel and responders alike seemed unfamiliar with the State Communications plan.  All are seeking information & training on assets like MARC units, EDICS, FIN, & EDWARDS.

66. Assignment – ESF17  Disposal of livestock in large quantities.  Care of surviving livestock in flooded areas.  Animal control and rescue.

67. Updated Info  www.floridacatastrophicplanning.com www.floridacatastrophicplanning.com  www.FloridaDisaster.org/CatastrophicPlanning www.FloridaDisaster.org/CatastrophicPlanning