1. DSES6070 Statistical Methods for Reliability Engineering Reliability of a Bicycle as a Commuter Vehicle By Adam Brown

2. Methods FMECA Quantitative event tree Calculate R and z for the system Calculate MTTF for the system Calculate importance measures Make recommendations to improve the system

3. FMECA

4. Event Tree Power applied to pedal Pedal rotates Bottom bracket rotates Chain transmit s power Hub rotates Wheel is true Tire is inflated OutcomesFrequency (per year) True On time Late Late, and tired On time, but tired Extremely late True False 0.05 0.95True False 0.05 0.95 True False 0.05 0.95 False 0.001 0.999 True 0.98 False True False 0.05 0.95True False 0.05 0.95 True False 0.05 0.95 False 0.001 0.999 True 0.999 0.02 False 0.001 Late Very late Late, and tired Very late, and tired Extremely late True 0.999 0.001 False Extremely late 0.8818 0.0464 0.0024 0.0010 0.0180 0.0009 0.0000 0.001

5. Summary R S (t) = e -0.1258t MTTF = 8 days Birnbaum’s measure shows that the wheel and tire are the most important components to the system as expected [I B (wheel)=0.9282 and I B (tire)=0.9282].

6. Supplementary: Component Importance