1. Current & Future Ecological Responses to Climate Change Dr. Heather Throop NMSU Biology 2090-2099 IPCC, 2007

2. Climatology is easy… Complexities of understanding biological responses - interactions between organisms - short vs. long term patterns - extremes, not averages, may be important 2090-2099 IPCC, 2007

3. Climate Change Does Not Occur in a Vacuum Increasing urbanization and sprawl Landscape fragmentation Air & water pollution Elevated atmospheric CO 2

4. Ways to Study Ecological Impacts Observations Manipulative experiments Computer simulations Natural Environment Research Council, UK

5. 4th Assessment Report -- 2007 Consensus report >1200 authors >2500 expert reviewers >130 countries

6. There is medium confidence that approximately 20- 30% of species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average warming exceed 1.5-2.5ºC (relative to 1980- 1999). As global average temperature exceeds about 3.5ºC, model projections suggest significant extinctions (40-70% of species assessed) around the globe. IPCC, SPM 2007

7. Biological Impacts Physiology Phenology (timing) Community composition & disease Range shifts

8. Biological Impacts Physiology Phenology (timing) Community composition & disease Range shifts EXTINCTIONS

9. Phenology Timing of a biological activity Examples: –Spring leaf-out –Fall leaf drop –Migratory bird arrival

10. Earlier Spring Events Documented Shifts Earlier: –Flowering & leafing, Europe & N. America (1 - 3 days earlier/decade) –Butterfly breeding, UK –Amphibian breeding, UK –Bird migration & breeding, Europe & N. America

11. Summary of spring phenology: 61 studies, 694 species, past 50 years Root et al. (2003) Nature

12. Both et al. (2006) Nature Pied Flycatcher, The Netherlands Mismatch between timing of hatching & food abundance  population declines Early caterpillar peak Late caterpillar peak

13. Later Fall Events? Less clear than spring Delay of leaf color changes in Europe

14. Community Composition Climate changes may affect species differentially Changes in abundance of one species (including pathogens) may affect other species

15. Walther et al. 2002 Nature Southern Switzerland

16. C. D. Harvell et al. (2002) Science Climate change likely to increase severity/frequency of disease outbreaks  population declines & extinctions Protozoan on monarchs Distemper outbreak - lions Fungus - sea fans Fungus - leaves

17. Benning et al. (2002) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. Harvell et al. (2002) Science Hawai’i ~60 of 100 endemic bird species currently extinct

18. Coral Bleaching Photos: Wikipedia.org Corals highly vulnerable to thermal stress 1-3ºC sea surface temperature increases: frequent bleaching, widespread mortality

19. Range Shifts Climate changes affect species range Changes in –Latitude (towards poles) –Elevation

20. Summary including >1,700 species: recent biological trends match climate change predictions range shifts average: 6.1 km/decade toward the poles OR 6.1 m/decade upward Parmesan & Yohe (2003) Nature Range Shifts

21. Other Range Shifts Treeline: Europe & New Zealand Arctic & alpine plants: Alps, Alaska –1-4 m/decade Birds in Britain –19 km N in 20 years Foxes, Canada

22. Can we count on range shifts as a “solution”?

23. “ I hope I have justified the conviction, shared by many thoughtful people from all walks of life, that the problem can be solved. Adequate resources exist. Those who control them have many reasons to achieve that goal, not least their own security. In the end, however, success or failure will come down to an ethical decision, one on which those now living will be defined and judged for all generations to come.” E.O. Wilson (2001) The Future of Life