1. The AIACC Project Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change in Multiple Regions & Sectors AIACC Africa Region Meeting Hartebeespoortdam, South Africa 10 March 2003

2. Variations of the Earth’s Surface Temperature (IPCC, 2001)

3. Developing countries are particularly vulnerable Significant exposures to potentially adverse impacts on crop yields, human health, water Large share of population earns livelihoods from climate sensitive activities (agriculture, livestock, fisheries) Large share of population lives in extreme poverty Low capacity to adapt due to low levels of human, financial, natural, physical and technological resources; limited institutional capabilities

4. Attention is focusing on adaptation Climate is changing and will continue to change Many are vulnerable Adaptation needs to go forward in hand with mitigation CoP decisions in Bonn and Marrkech –Invitation to submit NAPAs –Establishment of adaptation fund, other funds

5. Developing sound adaptation strategies requires good science Scientific investigation needed to answer: –Who are most vulnerable? –What are the causes of their vulnerability? –What are their options for adaptation and what are the consequences and costs of adaptation? Answering these questions can help to identify effective adaptation strategies

6. AIACC Partners AIACC is a partnership among GEF, UNEP, START, TWAS, IPCC, and developing country institutions –GEF provides the principal funding –UNEP is the implementing agency –START and TWAS are the executing agencies –Participating institutions in developing countries have provided collateral funding –Additional funding comes from USAID, USEPA, CIDA and World Bank

7. AIACC Objectives l Advance scientific understanding l Of climate change I, A & V in developing country regions. l Build and enhance scientific & technical capacity in developing countries l To investigate I, A & V and l To participate in international scientific assessments (e.g. IPCC, MA) l Contribute to National Communications, NAPAs and adaptation planning

8. Means to achieving objectives Fund regional research projects Provide training and mentoring Engage stakeholders in the project Link with National Communications Establish a network of scientists and stakeholders to endure beyond the AIACC project

9. AIACC funds regional research 150+ proposals submitted Proposals were peer reviewed 24 Awards made in 2002 based on –Scientific merit –Regional significance –Endorsed by GEF National Focal Points $100k-$250k awarded to regional studies for 2-3 years of research Regional studies add to scientific knowledge and capacity

10. AIACC studies active in 46 developing countries Each study involves a team of scientists from multiple disciplines –235+ scientists from developing countries participating as investigators –60+ graduate and undergraduate students –40+ scientists from developed countries collaborating

12. AIACC provides training Global training workshops Regional workshops organized by regional study teams Additional small grants to AIACC participants (USAID supported) –Visiting scientist exchanges –Develop & implement own training activities

13. AIACC Provides Mentoring –Advice on methods, data, scenarios, models –Troubleshooting –Referrals to other sources of expertise –Encourage/facilitate peer review publication –Encourage/facilitate contributions to National Communications Team of 10 AIACC mentors to assist throughout the project

14. Stakeholders, Nat’l Communications, Networks AIACC engages stakeholders –For input to objectives, approaches, evaluation of adaptations, review of outputs AIACC links with National Communications –Each regional study making contact with relevant ministries, committees, persons AIACC builds networks –Through participation in studies, workshops, “discuss aiacc” list- serve, and web-based database and information network

15. Commonalities among regional studies Most are interested in –Near-term consequences of climate change for people –Interactions with other stresses or threats –Human and social aspects of vulnerability –Response strategies (i.e. adaptation) that would lessen risks from climate change AND address other more immediate threats Has led many AIACC studies to take a “2nd Generation” approach to assessment

16. 2nd-Generation Assessments Emphasize understanding human side of vulnerabilities –Who is vulnerable to harm? From what? Why? Explore multiple, interacting stresses –Climate change, extreme weather, population growth, land use change, urbanization, land degradation... Evaluate responses, adaptations –Focus responses on causes of vulnerability Engage stakeholders –Enhance relevance, utility, credibility

17. AIACC Regional Studies in N &W Africa Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia Agriculture Water Historical impacts of variability Crop modeling future impacts Irrigation water S&D Adaptations SudanHuman settlements Agriculture Vulnerability to climatic hazards Food security Environmental mgt adaptations Nigeria, NigerAgricultureCrop modeling future impacts Seasonal forecasts Nigeria, MaliRural settlements Agriculture Vuln.of demog. groups to drought Impact thresholds, risk analysis Adaptations West Africa (0-30 o N, 15 o W-20 o E) ClimateDiag. eval. of GCM projections Statistical & dynamical downscaling for W. Africa

18. AIACC Regional Studies in Eastern & Southern Africa Kenya, Tanzania, UgandaHuman HealthSensitivities of malaria and cholera incidence to climate; model & project future risks Evaluate adaptive responses South AfricaBiodiversityPredictive models of plant & animal responses to climate Adaptation to conserve biodiversity Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Tanzania Agriculture Water Land-use Integrated assessment (MIMOSA) Primary focus on land-use BotswanaAgriculture Water Land-use Present water, food conditions Int. Assess. of future impacts Adaptations South Africa, GambiaWater Agriculture Benefit-cost analysis of adaptations Sub-Saharan AfricaClimateDiag. eval. of GCM projections Stat. & dyn. downscaling for sub-Saharan Africa

19. AIACC Regional Studies in Small Islands CaribbeanHuman HealthInvestigate/model health responses to climate (dengue) Future health impacts of climate change Adaptations Fiji, Cook Islands Water Coastal infrastructure Natural resources IAM, extended to include human dimensions Adaptations Seychelles Comoros Tourism Natural resources Direct impacts of climate change & SLR on tourism Indirect impacts on tourism from effects on natural resources Adaptations

20. Anticipated outcomes Advance science –Publication of peer reviewed papers, thematic reports that expand literature on developing country I, A and V –Citation of AIACC findings in IPCC & MA reports Build capacity –Participants continue their research and link to policy –Increased numbers of developing country researchers engaged in IPCC, global change research Contribute to National Communications –AIACC participants collaborate in preparation of Nat’l Communications –Use of AIACC findings in National Communicaitons