1. Llad Phillips1 Social Welfare The Impact of Crime on Society

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5. 5 Preview of Coming Attractions n Evaluate public sector activities in terms of benefits and costs u Costs: $ u Benefits ? How do we value public safety? There is not a “market” for public safety u Benefit cost ratio: benefits/costs u benefits/costs = crime*price/costs Crime: How much crime is there? Crime: Does society focus on the right types of crime?

6. Llad Phillips6 Who is this guy?

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8. 8 Preview of Coming Attractions n Why is the Public Provision of Goods and Services in Crisis? u Costs are out of line with benefits u The management of the public provision of goods and services is out of the control of the public What we will learn in econ 160 also has application to other public sector goods such as health care and education. We will focus on public safety for our story and examples

9. Llad Phillips9 Outline and Issues n Course logistics: http://www.econ.ucsb.edu http://www.econ.ucsb.edu n Criminal Justice System (CJS) & economic paradigm: where do the values (prices) come from to evaluate the states (outcomes) of the CJS? n How much crime is there? How do we know? n Crime has two effects: u Redistribution of welfare from the victim to the perpetrator u Opportunity cost or waste of resources for defense

13. SERIOUSNESS SURVEY RATE THE SERIOUSNESS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING BEHAVIORS ON A SCALE FROM ZERO( LEAST SERIOUS) TO TEN( MOST SERIOUS): 1. HOMICIDE___ 2. MASS POISONING ( e.g. TYLENOL)___ 3. FORCIBLE RAPE___ 4. ARSON: SET FIRE TO A GARAGE___ 5. SELLING HEROIN___ 6. AUTO THEFT___ 7. EMBEZZLEMENT OF $1,000___ 8. PROSTITUTE IN A HOUSE OF PROSTITUTION___ 9. POSSESSION OF MARIJUANA___ 10. SNIFFING GLUE___

14. Llad Phillips14 A Theme for this Course n Criminal Justice System is in crisis. u Courts have told Governor Schwarzenegger to find housing for prisoners or release them early u City and County jails are overflowing and a revolving door policy is in effect. Repeat offenders clog the system u Not enough judges and prosecutors

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16. Llad Phillips16 We have met the enemy and he is us

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18. Llad Phillips18 2006

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20. Llad Phillips20 It Has Not Always Been This Way n The Criminal Justice System had been relatively stable in the decade after World War II n What happened? That is the story of this course. n We will review the history of criminal justice in the 60 years since WW II. n We will suggest policies that will help turn things around now. In brief, what is needed is triage, i.e. to use scarce resources that will improve public safety the most.

21. Llad Phillips21 Social Welfare The Impact of Crime on Society

22. Llad Phillips22 Questions about crime n Is crime a real problem or a media induced problem? n Is crime an economic problem? n Are we getting our money’s worth for the dollars we spend on police, jails, and prisons?

23. Llad Phillips23 Taking Crimes n Robbery n Burglary n Auto Theft n Larceny

24. Llad Phillips24 How is Crime Measured n Victimization Surveys of Households u U S Dept of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, Criminal Victimization n Citizen (Victim) Reports to Police u U S Dept of Justice, FBI, Uniform Crime Reports

25. Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics, http://www.albany.edu/ sourcebook http://www.fbi.gov/homepage.htm Uniform Crime Reports

26. Llad Phillips26 Measures of Crime: Offense Rates n Thefts per 1000 registrations(FBI) = registrations per household * thefts per 1000 households(NCVS) u if registrations per household were growing in the 90’s then thefts per 1000 registrations would not fall as fast as thefts per 1000 households

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28. Llad Phillips28 1983 2007 http://ag.ca.gov

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31. Llad Phillips31 1966 2005

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37. Llad Phillips37 Questions about the Operation of CJS n If crime is going down, why are we devoting more resources to its control? n If drug offenders are mostly non-violent, why do we send them to state prison instead of rehabilitation?

38. Llad Phillips38 Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics: http://www.albany.edu/sourcebook/ Uniform Crime Reports, Crime in the United States, http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/03cius.htm Bureau of Justice Statistics: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/ Crime in California, http://caag.state.ca.us/cjsc/pubs.htmhttp://caag.state.ca.us/cjsc/pubs.htm California Department of Corrections, http://www.corr.ca.gov/http://www.corr.ca.gov/ Sources of Criminal Justice Information On the Internet

39. Llad Phillips39 Two Perspectives On Crime n No Problem n It’s Bad

40. Llad Phillips40 Crime as Income Redistribution n The Robin Hood Myth u Take from the rich and give to the poor n The impact on social welfare u depends on your views or values F socialist versus a capitalist

42. Llad Phillips42 Crime as a dead weight loss n Loss of resouces spent on defense u protection of homes u protection of cars u protection of bicycles n Resources spent on defense u could be spent on goods and services F in the absence of crime n The impact on social welfare u Unambiguously bad

43. Llad Phillips43 What is the nature of crime? n Income redistribution? n or dead-weight loss?

44. Llad Phillips44 Economists Assume You Know What You Like n Lingo: economists call these consumer tastes or consumer preferences

45. Victim’s Income Thief’s Income

46. Victim’s Income Thief’s Income Thief’s Preferences 1. More is better, greedy 2. Indifferent to victim High Medium Low

47. Llad Phillips47 Economists Assume You Can make Comparisons n For example: the thief can compare a high level of his income and a low level of the victim’s income with a high level of his income and a high level of the victim’s income u in the case just illustrated, the thief values these the same since his income stays the same F the thief does not care whether the victim’s income is high or low, i.e. he is indifferent

48. Victim’s Income Thief’s Income Victim’s Preferences 1. more is better, greedy 2. indifferent to the thief lowmediumhigh

49. Victim’s Income Thief’s Income $6,000 Income Distribution

50. Victim’s Income $6,000 Income Distribution $12,000 Total or Social Income Line: Thief’s + Victim’s Income $12,000 Thief’s Income

51. Victim’s Income Thief’s Income $6,000 Income Distribution $12,000 Total or Social Income Line: Thief’s + Victim’s Income $12,000 Income Redistribution $9,000 $3,000

52. Llad Phillips52 Bad effects from taking crimes n Victim has less incentive to be productive n Victim has more incentive to spend time and money on defense n Analogous to war: guns vs. butter n What is society going to produce? u defense against crime? u or goods and services?

53. Victim’s Income Thief’s Income $6,000 Income Distribution $12,000 Total or Social Income Line: Thief’s + Victim’s Income $12,000 Income Redistribution $9,000 $3,000 $11,000 $1,000 social cost of defense $11,000

54. Crime Generation Offense Rate, Damages to Victims Fear Media Defense PrivatePublic

55. Crime Generation Offense Rate, Damages to Victims Fear Media Defense PrivatePublic Politicians We over-react to crime and we do not triage

56. Llad Phillips56 Cost to Victims in US, 1993 Source: National Institute of Justice, Victim Costs and Consequences (1996)

57. Assaulter’s Income Victim’s Income Total or Social Income Motivation for Violence: Antagonism Assaulters Iso-preference Lines High Low Terrorist’s Tastes

58. Llad Phillips58 Damages: US Violence, 1993 Source: National Institute of Justice, Victim Costs and Consequences (1996)

59. Llad Phillips59 1750 Reported Hate Crimes in California: 1998 Source: Hate Crime in California, 1998

60. Llad Phillips60 About 2/3 of Hate Crimes are Violent

61. Llad Phillips61 Types of Crime n Motivation: self-interest, greed u Street Crimes: robbery, burglary, auto theft, larceny u White Collar: embezzlement, tax evasion, investment fraud, check fraud, telephone fraud u Status Offenses: runaway, truant, vagrant, beyond control of parents u Black Market: gambling, prostitution,drugs

62. Llad Phillips62 Types of Crime n Motivation: Hate, Rage u Street Crimes: homicide, aggravated assault, rape u Crimes Against Public Order: vandalism, terrorism u Hate Crimes F Columbine High F James Byrd: dragging death in Texas F Jewish Community Center in Granada Hills

63. Llad Phillips63 CA Descriptive Statistics

64. Llad Phillips64 California: Trend in Robberies Per Capita in 90’s

65. Llad Phillips65 Violent Crime Mix, CA ‘03

66. Llad Phillips66 Types of Robberies in California, 1998

67. Llad Phillips67 California: Armed Robberies, 54% of Total, By Weapon

68. Llad Phillips68 Homicide by Weapon, CA ‘03

69. Llad Phillips69 California Crime Mix

70. Llad Phillips70 California Crime Index: Property Crimes

71. Llad Phillips71 Sources of Information p. of syllabus n US Data u Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics F http://www.albany.edu/sourcebook/ u Bureau of Justice Statistics F http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/welcome.html

72. Llad Phillips72 Summary n Crime is an economic problem u loss of resources(dead weight loss) from private and public defense n Damages to victims are 3 times as high for crimes against persons compared to crimes against property u Total for 7 FBI Index Crimes: $ 95 Billion Shouldn’t society focus more on big ticket fraud: Enron, WorldCom, Bernard Madoff Investment Securities LLC?

73. Assaulter’s Income Victim’s Income Total or Social Income Motivation for Violence: Antagonism Assaulters Iso-preference Lines High Low

74. Llad Phillips74 Split Personality Behaviors Jack Hirshleifer: “The Expanding Domain of Economics” Choice Work and no violence Work and brawl in bars (Economic Man with episodes of antagonism)

75. choice Work and no violence Work and brawl in bars expect $24,000/yr Apprehended: lose 1 month in court and jail, $22,000 0.1 0.9 Not apprehended $24,000 Expected income: 0.1*$22,000 + 0.9*$24,000 = $23,800

77. Llad Phillips77 Trends In Crime in California Source: Crime and Delinquency in California, 1998 http://caag.state.ca.us/