1. European Commission 1 Directorate General for Energy and Transport Discussion for a co-ordinated trans-European Deployment Plan for ERTMS 15 June 2004 ERTMS Working Group Jean-Arnold Vinois Head of Unit “Rail Transport and Interoperability”

2. European Commission 2 Orders of Magnitude of Costs 2 000 M€ (25 000 km) Full implementation ETCS level 2 on HSL TEN-T 0.08 M€ / km Unit cost ETCS level 2 (double track - interlocking) 78 000 km (25 000 km) EU-15 TEN-T network (of which HSL) 2010 153 000 km EU-15 Rail network length 2004 4 200 M€ 30 % European fleet retrofitted 0.4 M€ Unit cost ETCS level 2 per loco (AEIF) 35 000 EU-15 Locomotives and railcars Directorate General for Energy and Transport

3. European Commission 3 Orders of Magnitude of Benefits Ecorys Results Orders of Magnitude of Benefits Ecorys Results Benefit item Net present value (in million Euro) Direct impacts 6313 Impact on the rolling stock industry 72 Impact on infrastructure managers: 89 - Maintenance costs 45 - Rail capacity 59 - Rail infrastructure costs -15 Impact on railway undertakings: 3385 - Operating costs 2709 - Operating revenues passengers 656 - Operating revenues freight 20 Impact on users: 2768 - Travel time and costs ‘remaining’ passengers 1670 - Travel time and costs ‘modal-shift’ passengers 47 - Travel time and costs ‘remaining’ freight 1039 - Travel time and costs ‘modal-shift’ freight 12 - Punctuality rail No benefit Indirect impacts: 631 External impacts: 568 - Noise production rolling stockNo benefit - Rail safety 14 - Environmental (air pollution, global warming, noise)149 - Accidents 315 - Road infrastructure maintenance13 - Congestion costs (Transport user costs)77 Total7513

4. European Commission 4 Orders of Magnitude of Benefits Ecorys Results Orders of Magnitude of Benefits Ecorys Results

5. European Commission 5 Overview of costs and benefits (results expressed in net present value) at different time horizons 20 years40 years Benefits: -Direct impacts21046313 -Indirect impacts210631 -External impacts48568 Total23627513 Overview of costs and benefits (results expressed in net present value) at different discount rates 4%6%8% Benefits: -Direct impacts1080563133808 -Indirect impacts1080631381 -External impacts1104568276 Total1298975134465 Sensibility Analysis

6. European Commission 6 Directorate General for Energy and Transport A clear need for EU financial support to accelerate the baseline scenario for ETCS implementation

7. European Commission 7 Discussion for EU deployment plan 1/ A Corridors’ Approach based on different layers: - TEN-T netwok and Pan-European Corridors (30 Priority Projects) - National Deployment Plans (Projects where implementation is decided) - RNE preconstructed train paths - Traffic Forecasts To achieve a coherent and co-ordinated trans-European implementation Aternative approaches? Proposals?

8. European Commission 8

9. 9 2/ A Reasonable Timeframe (2005-2015) - to accelerate the « national strategies » and baseline scenario resulting from the legal demands (>2020) - to foster the iterative and automatic change rate (see situation GSM-R) resulting from the absence of alternatives - to match the EU guidelines for the development of the TEN network (2020) - to use the opportunity/open window of the EU “new financial perspectives” post 2006 - to match to “softwares” evolutions and change control management of these tools Discussion for EU deployment plan And what about the industry ability to offer the adequate services ?

10. European Commission 10 Discussion for EU deployment plan 3/ Proposals - to adopt an iterative approach mixing national deployment plans for HS, EU guidelines, national deployment plans for CR (see slide …) to finalize an European HS and CR deployment plan in 2005-2006 - to create an “ERTMS coordonateur” (according to legal provisions of the Decision …/2004/EC amending Decision 1692/96/EC) to facilitate relations between project promoters, ERA, the Commission and Member States; ERTMS coordonateur? corridor coordonateur? - to propose a better and increased use of the TEN budget line in the framework of the new EU financial perspectives (on-board and on track equipments in a package) – 50 % of EU co-financing