1. New Computationally-Enabled Theoretical Models to Support Health BC&M Breakout group summary1 It is the year 2030. You are starting to test a theory about elderly people’s progression towards dementia. You are collecting real-time data on the person, the care-givers, and the environment. Articulate your theory and design an experiment using rapid evaluation to test your theory iteratively. Stephen Intille, Karina Davidson, Célia Boyer, Robin Mermelstien, Alberto Sanna, Joni Kettunen, Holly Jimison, René van Bavel, Scribe: Teresa Meneu,

2. New Computationally-Enabled Theoretical Models to Support Health BC&M Breakout group summary2 Background Age 20 decline starts But will test new intervention at age 50

3. New Computationally-Enabled Theoretical Models to Support Health BC&M Breakout group summary3 Assume previously done Sensors and various interventions deployed with tens of thousands –Homes –Phones Data driven discovery provides evidence for value of... –Cognitive training –Stress management –Exercise –Social support –Diet –Sleep –Avoiding environmental toxins

4. New Computationally-Enabled Theoretical Models to Support Health BC&M Breakout group summary4 Experimental design Premise: some behaviors alter inflammatory burden that may contribute to dementia Testable hypothesis: Altering behaviors, environment, and/or social interactions will decrease inflammation which in turn will slow progression of dementia

5. New Computationally-Enabled Theoretical Models to Support Health BC&M Breakout group summary5 Method Outcome measure –Frequent measures of cognition and individual measures of decline Mediator measure: –Inflammation chip (infrared)

6. New Computationally-Enabled Theoretical Models to Support Health BC&M Breakout group summary6 Method Randomize 50 year olds to 6x2 factorial design (10k people+): –12 groups randomized to test interaction across factors Cognitive training Stress management Exercise Social support Diet Sleep Avoiding environmental toxins

7. New Computationally-Enabled Theoretical Models to Support Health BC&M Breakout group summary7 Measures (most passive & continuous) Person –Physical Walking speed (from home sensors) Balance Sleep disturbances –Emotion Affect measurement (via phone) –Cognitive –Verbal fluency (via phone) –Linguistic complexity (via phone) –Speed (via phone) –Embedded cognition tests (e.g., via computer games) Environment –Getting lost / wandering –Changes in mobility pattern (+ time it takes to accomplish tasks) –Time spent in restricted social environments (persona + environment sensors) –Exposure to toxic environments Social interaction (with friends/famil/caregivers) –Interaction with other people – socialization, isolation

8. New Computationally-Enabled Theoretical Models to Support Health BC&M Breakout group summary8 Societal impact Goal: interventions to allow people to reduce burden with real-time feedback on reducing harmful exposure