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Intercomparison of Global Scale Ecological Models and Field Data Intercomparison of Global Scale Ecological Models and Field Data Objective To assess how much confidence to place in global model forecasts of terrestrial carbon cycling. Specific questions: How does the simulated NPP compare with the field data? How sensitive are models to site-specific climate? Does additional mechanistic detail in models result in a better match with field measurements? How useful are the measures of NPP for evaluating model predictions? How well do models represent regional patterns of NPP? Objective To assess how much confidence to place in global model forecasts of terrestrial carbon cycling. Specific questions: How does the simulated NPP compare with the field data? How sensitive are models to site-specific climate? Does additional mechanistic detail in models result in a better match with field measurements? How useful are the measures of NPP for evaluating model predictions? How well do models represent regional patterns of NPP? Our Approach 1, Compile and evaluated NPP data for Class A, B, and C sites 2. Associate model driver data with NPP sites 3. Conduct outlier assessment of NPP and model driver data 4. Provide model driver data for sites to modelers 5. Run global/regional models for sites without fine tuning models 6. Compare model results with field measurements Our Approach 1, Compile and evaluated NPP data for Class A, B, and C sites 2. Associate model driver data with NPP sites 3. Conduct outlier assessment of NPP and model driver data 4. Provide model driver data for sites to modelers 5. Run global/regional models for sites without fine tuning models 6. Compare model results with field measurements Acknowledgements: Funding and support has been provided by the following groups: International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme – Data and Information System (IGBP-DIS) IGBP-Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling Task Force (GAIM) National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Terrestrial Ecosystem Program GAIM and NCEAS provided funding for the EMDI workshop; NCEAS hosted an FTP Server for data exchange. Kathy Hibbard, GAIM, led the workshop. The organizing committee included Wolfgang Cramer, PIK; Steve Prince, UMD; Bill Parton, CSU; Dick Olson, ORNL; Jonathan Scurlock, ORNL; and others. Olson and Scurlock, with assistance from ORNL Intern Keri Johnson, organized and distributed the model driver data, NPP data, and model results with funding from both the NASA and NCEAS. The workshop was possible because of the continued support from the NASA Terrestrial Ecosystem Program for the Global Primary Production Data Initiative through Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Maryland to compile the NPP measurement data. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is managed by UT-Battelle, LLC for the U.S. Dept. of Energy under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725. Acknowledgements: Funding and support has been provided by the following groups: International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme – Data and Information System (IGBP-DIS) IGBP-Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling Task Force (GAIM) National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Terrestrial Ecosystem Program GAIM and NCEAS provided funding for the EMDI workshop; NCEAS hosted an FTP Server for data exchange. Kathy Hibbard, GAIM, led the workshop. The organizing committee included Wolfgang Cramer, PIK; Steve Prince, UMD; Bill Parton, CSU; Dick Olson, ORNL; Jonathan Scurlock, ORNL; and others. Olson and Scurlock, with assistance from ORNL Intern Keri Johnson, organized and distributed the model driver data, NPP data, and model results with funding from both the NASA and NCEAS. The workshop was possible because of the continued support from the NASA Terrestrial Ecosystem Program for the Global Primary Production Data Initiative through Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Maryland to compile the NPP measurement data. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is managed by UT-Battelle, LLC for the U.S. Dept. of Energy under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725. Class A sites - intensively-studied or well-documented study sites Class B Sites - “extensive” sites with less documentation and site-specific information ABSTRACT Understanding global-scale ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions is important both as a scientific question and as the basis for making policy decisions. The confidence in regional models of ecosystem processes depends on how well the field data used to develop the model represent the region of interest, how well the environmental driving variables represent the region of interest, and how well regional model predictions agree with observed data for the region. To assess how much confidence to place in global model forecasts of terrestrial carbon cycling, the first Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) Workshop was held in December 1999. Initial results showed general agreement between model predictions of net primary productivity (NPP) and NPP field measurements but with obvious differences that indicated areas for potential data and model improvement. The EMDI Workshop included 12 biogeochemical, satellite-driven, detailed process, and DVGM model types Extensive worldwide NPP data were assembled; model driver data including vegetation, climate, and soils were associated with each site; model simulations were performed; and the model-data differences analyzed. NPP and model driver data were compiled for 1200 study sites and for over 2100 0.5-degree grid cells. Comparing the field measurements with an ensemble NPP (average of predictions from several models) provided a unique tool to improve NPP data, model driver data, and model processes. The Workshop demonstrated that model-data intercomparison is an important new direction in model evaluation; however, it is an extraordinarily complex task.. ABSTRACT Understanding global-scale ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions is important both as a scientific question and as the basis for making policy decisions. The confidence in regional models of ecosystem processes depends on how well the field data used to develop the model represent the region of interest, how well the environmental driving variables represent the region of interest, and how well regional model predictions agree with observed data for the region. To assess how much confidence to place in global model forecasts of terrestrial carbon cycling, the first Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) Workshop was held in December 1999. Initial results showed general agreement between model predictions of net primary productivity (NPP) and NPP field measurements but with obvious differences that indicated areas for potential data and model improvement. The EMDI Workshop included 12 biogeochemical, satellite-driven, detailed process, and DVGM model types Extensive worldwide NPP data were assembled; model driver data including vegetation, climate, and soils were associated with each site; model simulations were performed; and the model-data differences analyzed. NPP and model driver data were compiled for 1200 study sites and for over 2100 0.5-degree grid cells. Comparing the field measurements with an ensemble NPP (average of predictions from several models) provided a unique tool to improve NPP data, model driver data, and model processes. The Workshop demonstrated that model-data intercomparison is an important new direction in model evaluation; however, it is an extraordinarily complex task.. 1. Compile and evaluated NPP data for Class A, B, and C sites Humid Savanna NPP site - Lamto, Côte d’Ivoire photograph from the ORNL DAAC collection Criteria for selecting NPP data from extant sources: use of an accepted method to estimate above or below net primary production geographical reference to the study site definition of biome or vegetation type a citable reference to peer-reviewed publication, symposium or workshop proceedings, book chapter, or technical memorandum Contributors of NPP field data Jonathan Scurlock, Dick Olson, Keri Johnson - Oak Ridge National Lab Steve Prince, Daolan Zheng - University of Maryland Bill Parton, Steve Del Grossa - Colorado State University, NREL Tom Gower, Drew Feldkirchner - University of Wisconsin-Madison Jian Ni - University of Beijing, China Larry Tieszen - USGS EROS Data Center Jen Jenkins - U.S. Forest Service Xilingol grassland site (Inner Mongolia Grassland Ecosystem Research Station), China. Class C Cells - regional collections of 0.5 grid cells, central and eastern U.S. 2. Associate model driver data with NPP sites NPP by biome NPP Data: go to the ORNL Distributed Active Archive for Biogeochemical Dynamics Data: http://daac.ornl.gov/NPP/ OLSON, R.J 1, HIBBARD, K. 2, SCURLOCK, J.M.O. 1, and JOHNSON, K.R. 1 1 Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831-6407, USA and 2 University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, 03824-3525, USA
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