1. University of Southern California Center for Systems and Software Engineering Vu Nguyen, Barry Boehm USC-CSSE ARR, May 1, 2014 COCOMO II Cost Driver Trends boehm@usc.edu, http://csse.usc.edu

2. University of Southern California Center for Systems and Software Engineering COCOMO II Status and COCOMO III Plans Baseline COCOMO II calibrated to 161 project data points –Pred (20%; 30%) = (63%; 70%) general; (75%;80%) local Added 149 data points 2000-2009 –Pred (30%) < 40% general; some sources ~70-80% local –Some improvement with added variables (year; domain; agility) But some data-source mismatches unexplainable Vu Nguyen analysis of full dataset suggests further adjusting –Rating scales for experience, tools, reliability Proposed approach for COCOMO III –Explore models for unexplained existing sources or drop –Try added variables for mostly-general fit to existing data –Obtain more data to validate results 1/13/2014© USC-CSSE2

3. University of Southern California Center for Systems and Software Engineering COCOMO II Data by 5-Year Periods 1/13/2014© USC-CSSE3

4. University of Southern California Center for Systems and Software Engineering COCOMO II Data: Productivity Trends 1/13/2014© USC-CSSE4

5. University of Southern California Center for Systems and Software Engineering COCOMO II Data: Process Maturity Trends 1/13/2014© USC-CSSE5

6. University of Southern California Center for Systems and Software Engineering SRDR Data: Productivity vs. Size, CMM Level 1/13/2014© USC-CSSE6

7. University of Southern California Center for Systems and Software Engineering Use of Software Tools Rating Trends 1/13/2014© USC-CSSE7

8. University of Southern California Center for Systems and Software Engineering Platfom Experience Rating Trends 1/13/2014© USC-CSSE8

9. University of Southern California Center for Systems and Software Engineering Application Experience Rating Trends 1/13/2014© USC-CSSE9

10. University of Southern California Center for Systems and Software Engineering Language & Tool Experience Rating Trends 1/13/2014© USC-CSSE10

11. University of Southern California Center for Systems and Software Engineering Storage Constraint Rating Trends 1/13/2014© USC-CSSE11

12. University of Southern California Center for Systems and Software Engineering Execution Time Constraint Rating Trends 1/13/2014© USC-CSSE12

13. University of Southern California Center for Systems and Software Engineering Correlation of cost driver rating and year 1/13/2014© USC-CSSE13

14. University of Southern California Center for Systems and Software Engineering Correlation of cost driver rating and year - 2 1/13/2014© USC-CSSE14