1. AQUAINT Scenario Breakout -- Group 2, Team 3 12 June 2002

2. AQUAINT Goal l Structured argument tool l Evaluate externals l Question generation l Methodology l “Generation”

3. AQUAINT Example Al-Qaeda operatives in the USA will attempt to shoot down civilian airliners in 4 major airports in the USA during the coming Thanksgiving holiday. Backing: Warrants: Ground: Qualifiers: Modality: Rebuttal: Claim: Motive: Means: Opportunity: Intent: H1H1 = Evidence= Technology

4. AQUAINT Example Backing: Warrants: Grounds:Modality: Rebuttal: Claim: Al-Qaeda operatives in the USA will attempt to shoot down civilian airliners in ____ major airports in the USA during Thanksgiving.

5. AQUAINT Goals l Technology (7-10 years, Shangra-La) l Metadata / Content tags for l Persons, Places, Things / Organizations l Help with Analyst Questions l Crime l Movement l $$$ l Means l Predictive Q&A for analysts (modeling & timelines) l Suggest COAS l Alerts l Model building / filtering l keywords l Tool - Computing hypothesis modeling l Help with middle managers to sort out competing hypotheses

6. AQUAINT Current Intel Process l Read traffic (over time) l Based on my analysis profile for CT l Over several months l Task for analysis from commander l What do we think will happen during the next terrorist attack? l Motive: Kill Americans MotivatedReady to actEvent

7. AQUAINT Diagram ML LL WCS POL UBL MIL OPS $$$ $ UBL M USA A P QA O $U co H1H1 U KW H1H1 Help manage and sort competing hypotheses IN O ME P QA Model $U USA credit card MVT PK T $ US FBI + SS INS Motivated WS O Al-Qaeda Nework C