1. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 1 ITS as a new market for telecommunication in Ubiquitous ICT Tadao Saito CTO, Toyota Infotech Center Professor Emeritus the University of Tokyo

2. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 2 Content o ICT markets for ubiquitous communication o Global Standard efforts to expand ICT markets for Ubiquitous applications o Automobile as an Ubiquitous market o New telecommunication performance requirements for ITS communication

3. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 3 Content o ICT markets ubiquitous communication o Global Standard efforts to expand ICT markets for Ubiquitous applications o Automobile as an Ubiquitous market o New telecommunication performance requirements for ITS communication

4. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 4 Saturation of Current IT Market CommunicationComputers Terminals 1950 10 8 10 5 1970 10 9 10 7 1990 10 9 10 9 personalize 2010 ? ? 2030 ?

5. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 5 Saturation of Current IT Market CommunicationComputers Terminals 1950 10 8 10 5 1970 10 9 10 7 1990 10 9 10 9 personalize 2010 10 11 ubiquitous 2030

6. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 6 Advances in Processors Moore’s Law prediction of advances 1960 ～ 1965 predicted one chip processor of 1970 1971 年 11 月 4004 2,300transistors 1974 年 4 月 8080 6,000transistors 1978 年 6 月 8080 29,000transistors(5 ～ 10MHz) 1985 年 10 月 386 275ktransistors( １６～ 33MHz) 1993 年 3 月 Pentium 5Mtransistors(60 ～ 300MH ｚ） 2000 年 11 月 Pentium4 80Mtransistors(1.4 ～ 3.8GHz) 2007 年 11 月 Itanium dual core 2Btransistors server chip （ 10 6 times in 36 years ） （ Intel Dec 2007 ）

7. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 7 Barriers for improvements o Continuous dispute on possibility of further growth o In many discussions negative view seems to be reasonable. o In history who gave up continuation of growth always failed in competition o Current bottleneck is radio frequency to support communication. o Other bottlenecks requiring development efforts are: Energy Lithography Market growth Attractive application target o Target oriented efforts are always important. o Automobile technology is important target for ICT development.

8. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 8 Content o ICT markets ubiquitous communication o Global Standard efforts to expand ICT markets for Ubiquitous applications o Automobile as an Ubiquitous market o New telecommunication performance requirements for ITS communication

9. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 9 N-ISDN PHS 1.2 k 2.4 k 9.6k 32k １.5 M 2M2M 10 M 100 M Transmissi on speed video TV conference G3FAX PC communication Voice Short message homeofficecitysuburba n rural Service area Wireless LAN CATV B-ISDN FPLMTS (3 rd Generation) Digital cellular Analogue cellular Mobile satellite pager 64 ｋ A book titled Radio multimedia of year 2000 published May 1995 in Japanese Proposal of combination of multiple radios in 1994 in Japanese government report which is the source of contribution for B3G in 2002.

10. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 10 ITU ー R vandiagram （２００２）

11. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 11 Packet-based core network New radio interface Wireline xDSL Cellular 2 nd generation Digital broadcast RLAN type IMT-2000 Short range connectivity Services and application s Ｏｔｈｅｒ ｅｎｔｉｔｉ ｅｓ Download channel IPv6 IMS

12. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 12 Distribution layer Cellular layer Hot spot layer Personal network layer Fixed (wired) layer Horizontal: handover within a system Vertical: handover between systems Possible return channels

13. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 13 TRANSMISSION RATE (bps) 1M1M 10M 100M 4G4G 100k 1G1G MOBILITY High speed stationary ） 3.5G 3G3G 802.16e WiMAX 802.11n 802.15.3 （ UWB ） WiFi 802.20 DSR C 802.16-2004 802.11b 802.11a/g 802.11p 2G 、 2.5G 、 3G 、 3,5G 、 4G ： 802. ○□ ： IEEE Current VAN diagram Mobile WiMAX 10k 2G （ PDC ） 2.5G

14. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 14 Content o ICT markets ubiquitous communication o Global Standard efforts to expand ICT markets for Ubiquitous applications o Automobile as an Ubiquitous market o New telecommunication performance requirements for ITS communication

15. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 15 Advances in recent 10 years in ICT Application for automobile Traditionally ICT improved many aspects of vehicles including emission reduction and stability control. In recent 10 years, contribution of ICT in vehicle technology expanded fast. Vehicle Stability Control Radar Cruise Control Back Monitor Tire Pressure Monitor On Demand Information Shift Control based on Map Autonomous → Networked Interests for Communication, V2I and V2V

16. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 16 ICT Infrastructure for Traffic Improvement 1970 ’ sSignal control 1980 ’ sMajor improvements build in electronics for vehicle 1990 ’ sDSRC for Infrastructure-Vehicle communication Traffic Data Toll Collection 2000 ’ sTransport Telematics 2005 ’ sVehicle Safety Systems

17. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 17 ITS ITS Architecture （ by ITS America) Fixed point to fixed point Communications Roadway Toll Collection Parking Management Commercial Vehicle Check Vehicle Transit Vehicle Commercial Vehicle Emergency Vehicle Dedicated Short RangeCommunications Vehicle to Vehicle Communications Wide Area Wireless (Mobile) Communications Remote Traveler Support Personal Information Access Travelers Centers Vehicles Field Traffic Management Archived Data Management Maintenance & Construction Management Commercial Vehicle Administration Toll Administration Emergency Management Fleet & Freight Management Transit Management Emissions Management Information Service Provider Security Monitoring Maintenance & Construction Vehicle

18. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 18 TravelersCenters Wide Area Wireless Communications Fixed Point to Point Communications VehicleField Vehicle to Vehicle Communications DSRC

19. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 19 Travelers Centers Wide Area Wireless Communications Wide Area Wireless Communications Fixed Point to Point Communications Fixed Point to Point Communications VehicleField Vehicle to Vehicle Communications DSRC Pedestrian

20. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 20 TravelersCenters Fixed Point to Point Communications Fixed Point to Point Communications VehicleField Vehicle to Vehicle Communications Ｕｂｉｑｕｉｔｏｕｓ Wireless Communications Ｕｂｉｑｕｉｔｏｕｓ Wireless Communications Pedestrian

21. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 21 ITS Vehicle services o Traffic management probing, dynamic fee management, emission management o Public transport management transit vehicle tracking, multimodal coordination o Traveler information personal route guidance, provider based route guidance,dynamic rideshare o Vehicle safety intersection safety warning, intersection collision avoidance, automated highway o Commercial vehicle operation fleet administration, freight administration, electronic clearance, weigh-in- motion o Emergency management stolen vehicle tracking, stolen vehicle control, emergency response, mayday support

22. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 22 In the past applications requiring high speed response were outside of IP network CALM System Management Networking Management Station Management Network Interface IPv6 Directory Internet Standard Application Internet ITS Application Existing ITS Application 2/2.5G 3G3G CALM IR CALM M5 CALM MM WiMax CALM Architecture ISO TC204

23. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 23 Physical Transport Packet Transport Platform Physical Transport Packet Transport Platform Neutral Network Service Contents and Applications Packet Transport Service ProviderNetwork Service Vehicle Surrounding a neutral network, many telematics service providers can develop services To expand market Standardization of platform and application is important.

24. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 24 Content o ICT markets ubiquitous communication o Global Standard efforts to expand ICT markets for Ubiquitous applications o Automobile as an Ubiquitous market o New telecommunication performance requirements for ITS communication

25. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 25 Cell Phone as the Forerunner for Vehicle Communication o In 1990‘ ｓ Cell phone services became ubiquitous and quickly saturated in personal service market o Transport Telematics was expected to cultivate new market for Cell Phone Carriers. o Business model to charge for car telecom module as the second personal cell phone did not work in 90’s. o In 2000’s transport telematics is a auto-manufacturer based MVNO service and efforts are paid to promote providing useful services for automobile users. o Although performance of Cell Phone does not satisfy the requirement for ITS, appropriate design to satisfy requirement should be possible if new market is possible in future.

26. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 26 Broad Range of Requirements for Machine to Machine Communication Latency for Setup 0.1msec ～ 10msec ～ 1sec ～ 100sec Distance of Communication 0.01m ～ 1m ～ 100m ～ 10km ～ 1000km Data Speed 1b/s ～ 100b/s ～ 10kb/s ～ 1Mb/s ～ 100Mb/s Coverage point, surrounding, linear, plane(operator, national,global) Addressing location, person, vehicle, machine, situation Error rate 10 -9, 10 -7, 10 -5, 10 -3, 10 -1 Technology life 5 years, 10 years, 20years, 100years

27. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 27 100sec 1sec 10msec 0.1msec 1m1m 100m 10km 1000km Vehicle Networks Current Networks Internet POTS latency distance An Example of Performance Requirement for Vehicle Service

28. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 28 Communication performance requirement for intersection safety warning Latency for Setup 10msec Distance of Communication 1m ～ 100m Data Speed 100b/s ～ 10kb/s Coverage surrounding Addressing location Error rate 10 -5 ～ 10 -3 Life of technology roadside 50 years vehicle 20 years

29. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 29 Communication performance requirement for intersection collision avoidance Latency for Setup 10msec Distance of Communication 1m ～ 100m Data Speed 100b/s ～ 10kb/s Coverage surrounding, linear Addressing location Error rate 10 -9 ～ 10 -5 Life of technology roadside 50 years vehicle 20 years

30. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 30 Communication performance requirement for mayday support Latency for Setup 1sec ～ 100sec Distance of Communication 10km ～ 1000km Data Speed 10kb/s ～ 1Mb/s Coverage plane (global :cross border) Addressing vehicle, machine Error rate 10 -5 ～ 10 -3 Life of technology roadside 50 years vehicle 20 years

31. The Fully Networked Car Geneva, 4-5 March 2009 31 Telecommunication network is changing rapidly o Telecommunication used to be a given social infrastructure which is difficult to change. o Around 2010, global telecommunication infrastructure will begin to change. Traditional network->All IP network IPv4->IPv6 Analogue TV-> Digital TV Person to person communication->Machine to machine communication o Vehicle is an important market for telecommunication business. o It is an important timing to propose to construct telecommunication infrastructure which is suited for vehicle use. o Clarification of requirement from the view point of vehicle is now required. o This requirements are also important for telecommunication to get expanded market in ubiquitous network era.