1. Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2015 January 27, 2015

2. Class Information and News Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15 –Record of course Rood’s Class MediaWiki SiteClass MediaWiki Site –http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Actionhttp://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action A tumbler site to help me remember –http://openclimate.tumblr.com/http://openclimate.tumblr.com/

3. Resources and Recommended Reading TED Video and Education on Feedbacks Wikipedia on Feedbacks Soden and Held: Feedbacks in Climate ModelsSoden and Held: Feedbacks in Climate Models Lindzen and Hou: The Iris Effect

4. Mind Map / Brainstorming

5. Outline: Class 6, Winter 2015 Balance and Altering Balance –System –Unique Feedbacks –Alter balance: Recover? –Alter balance: Fall? –Alter balance: New Balance? In class discussion: Northeast Blizzard –Weather –Climate –Climate change?

6. BALANCE

7. Radiation Balance Figure In this figure out = in

8. BALANCE (National Geographic)National Geographic

9. Lynx and Hare: Predator Prey

10. Wolf- Moose: For Example Isle Royale NP

11. Artist’s View of Ecosystem How might the balance change? 1) 2) from weather? 3) from climate? Isle Royale: Wolf-Moose Climate Change (Example of Scenario Planning)

12. So what matters? Things that change reflection Things that change absorption Changes in the sun If something can transport energy DOWN from the surface. THIS IS WHAT WE ARE DOING

13. Radiative Balance (Trenberth et al. 2009) In this figure out does not = inTrenberth et al. 2009

14. Balance: Markets and Economics What does the Federal Reserve do? Markets (How do we watch movies?) –1950 –1970 –1990 –2000 –2015 Movies Movies on TVs Videocassettes DVDs Blockbuster, Netflix, RedBox Streaming

15. Feedbacks When you think of feedback what is your first thought?

17. Problem Solving Brings Focus to System System (Dictionary Definitions): –a set of connected things or parts forming a complex whole –a set of interacting or interdependent components forming an integrated whole –has: Structure, Behavior, Interconnection Systems Engineering: study, understanding (analysis), design, management of systems

18. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO 2 ? Movement of carbon dioxide by burning Net +3.5 Millions of Years

19. Feedbacks from Increased Carbon Dioxide?

20. More consideration of radiative energy in the atmosphere FEEDBACKS.... –The idea that one thing causes a second thing to happen. That second thing then does something to the first thing –It damps it, negative feedback –It amplifies it, positive feedback –Technical Reference: Soden and HeldSoden and Held

21. Feedback Definition –Feedback occurs when outputs of a system are "fed back" as inputs to the system Negative feedback regulates the system Positive feedback causes system to –Implode –Explode

22. We perturb the system – how does it respond? What happens when we perturb the system? Is it stable or unstable? Feedbacks – are they positive or negative?

23. The Earth System: Feedbacks 1 Infrared Proportional to Temperature SURFACE Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE (infrared) Assume that greenhouse gases remain the same Infrared emission is proportional to temperature Temperature increases  emission increases

24. Let’s think about Temperature and Moisture If you were becoming a forest fire fighter If you were developing a new clothes dryer

25. Holding Moisture vs Temperature From Engineering Tool Box

26. Temperature and Moisture in Air Moisture Temperature Hot Wet Hot Dry Cold Dry Cold Wet

27. Moisture in Air vs Greenhouse Effect Greenhouse effect Moisture Warmer Not PhysicalCooler Not physical

28. CO 2 Warming Increases Temperature Increases Moisture Increases Greenhouse Increases Temperature

29. The Earth System: Feedbacks 2 Water Vapor When it gets warmer more water, a greenhouse gas, will be in the atmosphere Higher temperature increases evaporation from land and ocean Higher temperature allows air to hold more water Increase of water increases thickness of blanket – increases temperature more This could runaway! Natural limit because of condensation  clouds, rain? Compensating circulation changes? Think deserts … SURFACE Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE (infrared)

30. Temperature and Ice/Snow Ice Temperature Less Ice More Ice

31. Ice/Snow and Reflection Reflection Ice Snow Increased Reflection Decreased Reflection

32. Ice/Snow and Absorption Absorption Ice Snow Increased Absorption Increased Ice/Snow Decreased Absorption Decreased Ice/Snow Increased Absorption Decreased Ice/Snow Decreased Absorption Increased Ice/Snow ? ? ? ?

33. The Earth System: Feedbacks 3 Ice – Reflection (Albedo) ICE Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space When it gets warmer less ice Less ice means less reflection  warmer Warmer means less ice This could runaway! Cooler works the other way  ice-covered

34. What happens with clouds?

35. The Earth System: Feedbacks 4 Clouds? SURFACE Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE (infrared) Clouds are difficult to predict or to figure out the sign of their impact Warmer  more water  more clouds More clouds mean more reflection of solar  cooler More clouds mean more infrared to surface  warmer More or less clouds? Does this stabilize? Water in all three phases essential to stable climate CLOUD

36. Cloud-Ice-Atmosphere Feedback Warming and Cooling Possible –This is where much of the discussion about scientific uncertainty resides. –How clouds change has been much argued. The Iris Effect?The Iris Effect

37. The Earth System: Feedbacks 5 Something with the Ocean? Is there something with the ocean and ice? Warming ocean temperatures? Ice sheets melting decreases ocean salinity (density) Sea-ice impacts heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere Sea-ice impacts solar absorption of ocean North Atlantic sea-ice and ocean interaction very important to the climate Think Gulf Stream Think climate and people and economy Is there a natural feedback that stabilizes climate? Even if there is, it would be very disruptive, perhaps not stable from a societal point of view.

38. The Earth System: Feedbacks 6 Something with the Land? Is there something with the land and ice/snow? Warming land temperatures? Snow cover decreases reflection on land? Tundra, Arctic very important to climate stability Is there a natural feedback that stabilizes climate? Even if there is, it would be very disruptive, perhaps not stable from a societal point of view.

39. CLOUD-WORLD Earth System: Ice ATMOSPHERE LANDOCEAN ICE (cryosphere) SUN ICE: Very important to reflection of solar radiation Holds a lot of water (sea-level rise) Insulates ocean from atmosphere (sea-ice) Ice impacts both radiative balance and water – oceans and water resources on land.. Large “local” effects at pole. Large global effects through ocean circulation and permafrost melting. Might change very quickly.

40. The Earth System: ICE (Think a little more about ice) non-polar glaciers and snow polar glaciers (Greenland) (Antarctica) sea-ice Impacts regional water supply, agriculture, etc. Solar reflection, Ocean density, Sea-level rise Solar reflection, Ocean-atmosphere heat exchange (Tour of the cryosphere, Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio)

41. Cloud-Ice-Atmosphere Feedback Some carry away messages –The Earth is at a complex balance point That balance relies on water to exist in all three phases. –Too warm could run away to “greenhouse” vapor –Too cold run away to “snowball” ice –Is there something in all of this that changes the sign; namely, that CO 2 warming will be compensated by more cooling? Is Earth a “regulated” system? Have you heard of Gaia Hypothesis?of Gaia Hypothesis

42. Feedbacks Ice-albedo, water vapor feedback are positive and definitive. Feedbacks associated with melting in the Arctic are largely positive. –(WWF, Literature Assessment, 2009)WWF, Literature Assessment, 2009 The only potentially negative feedback is associated with clouds, which is observed. Complex role of particles (aerosols) in the atmosphere. Theoretical and observational investigation concludes that feedbacks are substantially linear and positive. –(Roe and Baker, Science, 2007)Roe and Baker, Science, 2007

43. Class Exercise: Weather and Climate Case Study: Winter storm that is happening now.

44. Temperature and Moisture in Air Moisture Average Temperature Hot Wet Hot Dry Cold Dry Cold Wet

45. Summary: Class 6, Winter 2015 Climate that we have evolved our civilizations in is a “balanced system” –Unique and stable –Prone to natural change With stable input? With varying input?

46. Summary: Class 6, Winter 2015 Climate that we have evolved our civilizations in is a “balanced system” –Unique and stable –Prone to natural change With stable input? With varying input?

47. Outline: Class 6, Winter 2015 Balance and Altering Balance –System –Unique Feedbacks –Alter balance: Recover? –Alter balance: Fall? –Alter balance: New Balance? In class discussion: Northeast Blizzard –Weather –Climate –Climate change?

48. Some key words so far: Absorption Reflection Balance Temperature to zero degrees CO 2 and Temperature Correlation Societal Impacts (LIA vs MWP) Conservation Calculating Budgets