1. NS4301 Summer Term 2015 Predicting Expropriation

2. Overview Randal Jones, “A Model for Predicting Expropriation in Latin America: Applied to Jamaica,” Colombia Journal of World Business, 2001 Illustration of several statistical techniques Data Reduction – Factor Analysis Profiling – Discriminant Analysis Quantum Change -- Threshold Analysis Problems Large data set Little in way of theory Not clear data set captures relevant factors underlying expropriation 2

3. Data Set I 3

4. Data Set II 4

5. Data Set III 5

6. Data Set IV 6

7. Data Set V 7

8. Factor Analysis: Data Reduction 8

9. Grouping/Discriminate Analysis 9

10. Discriminate Scores: Probabilities of Correct Placement 10

11. Correct Group Placement 11

12. Model Applied to Jamaica Jamaica expropriates in 1974 How well did the model do in prediction? 12