1. Planning adaptation to climate change: Tourism community of Tulum 2030 Using future scenarios to assess local adaptation Arnoldo Matus Kramer D.Phil Candidate 26th of May 2010, Department of International Development, University of Oxford

2. Outline 1.Why using future scenarios in Tulum? 2.Methodological Approach 3.Findings 4.Final remarks

3. Why using future scenarios in Tulum? Information on climate change impacts Spatial expansion of the tourism industry Rapid pace of coastal urbanization Exponential growth of population in tourist communities Use of scenarios to assess adaptation options, priorities and barriers.

4. Climate Change Information and policy in Mexico Four National Communications Fifth NC 2012 National Climate Change Strategy Special Climate Change Programme (2009- 2012) States Climate Change Action Programmes Quintana Roo 199720012006200720092012 Fifth NC IPCC FAR (2007) Stern Report

5. Hurricane impacts in tourism communities Hurricane Gilbert (1988) 24% hotels rooms damaged in Cancun. Hurricane Wilma (2005) Most costly natural disaster in history for the Mexican Insurance sector. +$3,000 Millones USD. Hurricane Dean (2007) Total destruction of the cruiser port in Mahahual.

7. Cancun 1979-2007 1979 Population: 37,190 Urban sprawl: 2239 ha 2007 Population: 572,412 Urban sprawl: 18083 ha

8. Boom de la Riviera Maya

9. Playa del Carmen 2000 Población: 55,000 habitantes Urbanización: 3780 ha 2008 Población: 135,108 habitantes Urbanización: 5863 ha

10. Two main models of tourism Source: CEMDA Source: Proyecto Marti

11. Tulum 2000 Población: 6,733 habitantes Urbanización: 605 ha 2008 Población: 19,913 habitantes Urbanización: 1217 ha New International Airport of the Riviera Maya by 2012 National strategy on tourism:  10th most visited country in 2010  Top 5 by 2018 Key events:

12. Methodological Approach Phase IPhase II Phase III Mapping stakeholders and drivers of change Scenarios planningDeliberative workshop

13. Phase I: Mapping stakeholders and drivers of change Field season 1 (6 months) – In-depth interviews – Informal conversations – Passive observation of regional land-use planning meetings – Collection of secondary data

14. Mapping Stakeholders Primary stakeholders Secondary stakeholders External stakeholders Local officials Community leaders Hotel owners and managers State officials National officials Developers Consultants Leaders of NGOs Academics International Organisations UNDP IDB ECLAC

15. Phase II: Scenarios planning Field season 2 (3.5 months) – Semi-structure interviews (20 interviews) – Informal conversations – Triangulation – Draft of storylines for two scenarios – Focus groups (2 sessions) – Briefing participants with methods and storylines

16. Phase III: Deliberative Workshop One-day workshop to assess adaptation options and barriers (2030) – Introduction (methods, climate change information, and storylines) – Stakeholders working in two groups with scenarios A and B Adaptation options, priorities and barriers for the periods: 2010-2015, 2020 and 2030 – Discussion – Results – Feedback

17. Key findings of using scenarios Opportunity Right participation Key partners: – Local authorities in Tulum – National Institute of Ecology – UNDP Challenge Facilitate discussion Time management Financial and logistical resources

18. Final Remarks Alternative to assess local climate change adaptation in a dynamic socioeconomic context From participant observer to action-oriented research More case studies needed

19. Thanks arnoldo.matuskramer@ouce.ox.ac.uk or arnoldo.matus@cbnex.com http://www.cbnex.com/arnoldo-matus-kramer.html/