1. NIAM meeting, 23-24 March 2009 Jan Aben

2. 2 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben Selected topics  Dutch baseline compared to Current Policy  CC policy and effects on AQ  Effects of credit crisis  Attainability of new PM 2.5 standards  Ammonia deposition modelling  Comparison of SRMs (EMEP, Lotos-Euros)

3. 3 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben Updated baseline (BGE)  Global Economy (GDP: + 2.9%/yr)  Primes Energy Scenario (oil price: 60-70 $/barrel)  CO 2 price: 35 €/ton  Set and envisaged policy  Limited additional climate policy after 2012

4. 4 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben Europe and world wide policies  Euro 5 for LDV  Euro 6 for LDV (as of 2014)  EURO VI for HDV  Fuel Quality Directive for inland shipping and mobile machinery  Sea shipping measures (IMO)

5. 5 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben Specific Dutch policies Set policies  SO 2 emission limits for E-production and refineries  Air washers for emissions from animal housings  Air ticket tax Envisaged policies  Sharpened emission limits for medium combustion plants  PM emission limit for industry  Road pricing

6. 6 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben Comparison of BGE with Current Policy Emission target for industry ?

7. 7 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben NO x emission in 2020 per sector

8. 8 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben Effects of CC Policies on AP emissions

9. 9 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben Effects of CC Policies on AP emissions

10. 10 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben Effects of CC Policies on AP emissions

11. 11 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben Credit Crisis leads to significant reductions in final demand *) CPB (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis), 2007

12. 12 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben Attainability of PM standards - Legislation  EU Air Quality Directive 2008: 4 standards for PM 2.5  Exposure Reduction target (ERT) is the most stringent standard  ERT depends on Average Exposure Indicator (AEI) in 2010  15% reduction if AEI in 2010 < 18 µg/m 3  20% reduction if AEI in 2010 > 18 µg/m 3  Uncertainty about ERT for NL because AEI for 2010 is near 18 µg/m 3

13. 13 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben Attainability of PM standards – Results  Dutch emissions: BGE-baseline  Foreign emissions: Amann (2008)  AEI in 2010: 16.1 µg/m 3  ERT of 15% is likely attainable, attainment of ERT of 20% would require additional NL and EU measures beyond EP ambitions  Model bias: 6 - 7.5 µg/m 3

14. 14 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben Ammonia deposition modelling

15. 15 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben Model improvement

16. 16 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben Change in NHx deposition moles N per ha per yr -30%

17. 17 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben Comparison of SRMs  SRMs calculated with Lotos-Euros  For emission reductions (-15%) SO 2, NO x, NH 3, VOC and PM 2.5 in BEL, GER, FRA, GBR and NLD  Same base emissions as used by EMEP  Effect on primary and secondary PM 2.5 concentrations studied for BEL, DEU, FRA, GBR and NLD  SRMs compared to SRMs derived with EMEP model (v2.8 and v3.0)

18. 18 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben Same country mean values, but different contributions

19. 19 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben Comparison of EMEP with Lotos-Euros

20. 20 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben Thank you for your attention

21. 21 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben Contacts  Baseline: Pieter.Hammingh@pbl.nl  Synergy of CCP: Pieter.Hammingh@pbl.nl  Attainability of ERT: Jan.Matthijssen@pbl.nl  Ammonia Modelling: Hans.vanJaarsveld@pbl.nl  SRMs: Jelmer.Cnossen@pbl.nl  Credit Crisis: Eric.Drissen@pbl.nl  General: Jan.Aben@pbl.nl