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Sureel Choksi President, Transport & Infrastructure Services sureel.choksi@level3.com © 2003 Level 3 Communications, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduced with permission. Downloading is permitted for private use only; presentation or redistribution of these materials to the public is prohibited without the express written consent of the author. Perspective on the Carrier Market: Part 2 2001 – Is There Light @ the End of the Tunnel? 2003 – We’re Beginning to See the Light
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The Questions Is there still a fiber optic glut? What is the impact of carriers emerging from Chapter 11? Is the worst behind us? When will telecom spending improve? What is Level 3’s strategy? What does this mean for the equipment makers?
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The Answers SORT OF YAWN PROBABLY DON’T KNOW GROW INNOVATE Is there still a fiber optic glut? What is the impact of carriers emerging from Chapter 11? Is the worst behind us? When will telecom spending improve? What is Level 3’s strategy? What does this mean for the equipment makers?
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Flashback To 2001 – Part 1 From 2000 to 2001, the market value of 15 emerging carriers declined from $168B to $14B Since then, market value has declined to $9B
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Is There Still A Fiber Optic Glut? The industry has been relying on pre-deployed capacity and buying equipment on the secondary market Distressed competitors who have greater inventory sometimes price below replacement economics Level 3 has been augmenting its network selectively over the past year Sort of
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What Are The Implications Of Carriers Emerging From Bankruptcy? Bankruptcy is a useful tool for good businesses with bad balance sheets Bankruptcy is not effective for bad businesses with bad balance sheets There are several carriers in or newly emerged from Chapter 11 in the latter category
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Level 3’s gross margins lead the industry by a substantial margin Level 3’s EBITDA margins are superior to most competitors and have substantial upside Touch America example Chapter 11 Is No Panacea 2Q03 2Q03 GrossEBITDAMargin Level 3 76% 26% AT&T 47% 26% Sprint GMG 47% 19% MCI 44% 11% Wiltel 20% 5% GX 31% (1)% Level 3 Communications Services Source: 2Q03 Press Release and 2Q03 10Q Competitor Source: Internal Level 3 research and Banc of America research note “MCI: Much Ado About Margins IX” dated August 18, 2003
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Is The Worst Behind Us? The Good News Unit demand growth remains significant Customers distinguish between stable and distressed providers Certain customers are increasing spend The Not So Good News Distressed providers continue to exist and price irrationally Customers continue to rationalize spend from late 1990s “Smart Money” provided life support to distressed providers Consolidation has not occurred at a significant rate Probably
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When will Telecom Spending Improve? ?
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What is Level 3’s Strategy? Focus on product development –VOIP, Ethernet, Metro - address large, existing markets Focus on meeting the needs of growing sectors –Wireless, Cable, RBOCs, On-line content, etc. Pursue indirect distribution channels to increase addressable market Opportunistically pursue consolidation opportunities –New product capabilities to leverage Level 3 network –Consolidation opportunities with significant synergies Rather than waiting for telecom spend to improve, focus on growth through market share gains
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2001 Flashback – Part 2 2001 Scaled back business plans Back to basics –Focus on customers who pay –Operational excellence, not price Reducing expenses to weather the storm –SG&A –Capital expenditures What are carriers doing in this difficult environment? 2003 & Beyond Develop & market new services Selectively expand network footprint Same Selectively invest to drive growth – –Sales & marketing – –New products
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2001 Flashback – Part 2 (Cont.) 2001 Selling non-core assets Restructuring the balance sheet Consolidation? What are carriers doing in this difficult environment? 2003 & Beyond N/A Improve balance sheet opportunistically Pursue consolidation opportunities with a disciplined approach
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What Does This Mean For Equipment Makers? Source: Morgan Stanley, Global Carrier CAPEX Forecasts, May 31, 2002 and June 27, 2003
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What Does This Mean For Equipment Makers? (Cont.) Carriers will begin to loosen purse strings over the next couple of years –Certain pre-deployed inventory is utilized –Will be driven by increases in enterprise spending –Carriers will continue to look to secondary market at a minimum for benchmarking purposes R&D and long-term innovation needs to continue
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Not So Bold Predictions Segments of the industry will grow – key is to invest in those areas Consolidation will occur… gradually We will witness Chapter 18 & Chapter 22 Telecommunications services providers can earn an adequate return on invested capital
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APPENDIX
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IP & Data Services – 25% of Communications Revenue (1) Dedicated Internet Access Security & VPN DSL Aggregation Ethernet Softswitch Services – 48% of Communications Revenue (1) Managed Modem Voice Services Level 3 Service Offerings (1) Percentages are based on second quarter 2003 Communications GAAP revenue of $434 million Fiber Services Gateway Services Private Line Transatlantic & Backhaul Wavelengths Colocation Fiber Services Technical Support Transport & Infrastructure Services – 27% of Communications Revenue (1)
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