1. Global Consciousness Project
Anomalous Anticipatory Responses In Networked Random Data Roger Nelson Princeton, New Jersey Frontiers of Time: Reverse Causation -- Experiment and Theory AAAS Symposium, University of San Diego, June 2006
Global Consciousness Project

2. Global Consciousness Project (aka The EGG Project)
The People: An international collaboration of
100 Scientists, Engineers, Researchers
The Tools: REG technology, Field applications,
Internet communication, Canonical statistics
The Question: Is there evidence for Non-random
Structure where there should be none?

3. It is like flipping 200 coins and counting the heads
Random Event Generator – REG Reverse Current in Diode: White Noise Electron Tunneling – A Quantum Process Sample Resulting Voltage, Record 200-Bit Sums
It is like flipping 200 coins and counting the heads
Trial Scores: 100 ± 7.071
Plotted as a sequence, 1 trial per sec
Binomial Distribution of Data Compared to Theoretical Normal
100 is expected mean

4. A World Spanning Network Yellow dots are host sites for Eggs

5. Internet Transfer to Data Archive in Princeton Here are data plotted as sequences of 15-minute block means, for a whole day, from 48 eggs

6. We begin to see what’s happening If we plot the Cumulative Deviations

7. If we average the cumulative deviations Across REGs we may see a meaningful trend
Expected
Trend is
Level
Random
Walk
Cumulative deviation is a
Graphical tool to detect change
Process control engineering

8. A Replication Series Of Formal Tests The Hypothesis:
Global Events Correlate with
Structure in the Random Data
Test Procedure:
Pre-defined events,
Standardized Analysis
Bottom Line:
Composite Statistical Yield

9. Current Result: Formal Database, 7
Current Result: Formal Database, 7.5 Years 204 Rigorously Defined Global Events Odds: About 1 part in 300,000
9/11

10. Now we proceed to new questions First, how good are the data?
Equipment: Research quality Design, Materials, Shielding, XOR, Calibration standards
Errors and Corrections: Electrical supply failure, component failure. Rare but identifiable
Empirical vs Theoretical: Mean is theoretical, but tiny differences in Variance (expected)
Normalization: All data standardized; empirical parameters facilitate comparison and interpretation

11. Identify and exclude “Bad Trials” <55 or >145 Identify and exclude device failures, “Rotten Eggs”
Identify Individual “Rotten Egg”
Calculate Empirical Variance for Individual Eggs
REG device failure
Effect of “Rotten Eggs” on the Full Network
Fully vetted, normalized data
REG device failure

12. Tests are conservative
Theoretical vs Empirical Distribution (We also assess pseudorandom clone data, and use resampling and permutation analyses)
Note: These are (0,1)
Normal Z-scores
The Diffs are TINY
Negative difference
Means that formal
Tests are conservative

13. Three Independent statistics
The netvar is Mean(zz). It measures the
average pair correlation of the regs:
<zz> = <z[i]*z[k]>
where i & k are different regs and z is
trials for one second.
The devvar is Var(z) the variance across regs
Calculated for each second.
The covar is Var(zz). It represents the
variance of the reg pair products:
{ z[i]*z[k] - <zz>}^2 

14. Suggestions of precursor effects Sept 11 2001 Terror Attacks
Stouffer Z across REGs per second
Cumulative sum of deviations from expectation
Variance across REGs per second
Cumulative sum of deviations from expectation
Attacks
Attacks
Attacks
Attacks
Moderately persuasive suggestion
that trend may begin before event
Strong and precise indication that
change begins 4 hours before event

15. And very recently, the Indonesian earthquake on May 27 this year also seems to show evidence of a precursor response

16. To go further we need a better database
Suggestive single cases but low S/N ratio
Need replication in multiple samples
“Impulse” events are sharply defined
E.g. crashes, bombs, earthquakes

17. Subset of formal series: 51 impulse events Epoch average for covar and devvar may Depart from expectation prior to T=0
Covar
Devvar
The suggestion
of early shift is
clearest in covar
Netvar

18. 51 Impulse events, Covar epoch average Deviation may begin ~ 2 hours before T=0
Approx Slope

19. Impulse events vary -- We need consistency Earthquakes are a precisely defined, Prolific subset of impulse events They show similar responses
Impulse events shown as Red, Earthquakes as Blue trace
Netvar
Covar

20. Earthquakes: Important to People, Numerous, Accurately Located, Rigorously Scaled, Precisely Timed

21. Selected regions outlined in orange Included quakes shown as grey dots
All Earthquakes, Richter 6 or More Select those on Land with People and Eggs
Eggs shown as
orange spots
Selected regions outlined in orange
Included quakes shown as grey dots
Controls shown
as blue dots

22. In the Earthquake database, the covar measure appears to be the most useful of our three independent statistics

23. Average location of quakes in grid square marked as a colored point
For quakes R>6 (grey dots) the covar measure Responds before and after the primary temblor
Before
Mostly
Negative
-8 hrs
After
Mostly
Positive
+8 hrs
Average location of quakes in grid square marked as a colored point
Size is cum Z-score; Red: positive; Blue: negative; Green: no calc, less than 2 quakes

24. Strong covar response in populated Land areas where we have eggs
North America and Eurasia
Symmetrical, Significant Z-scores Pre & post

25. Null covar response in unpopulated
Regions (ocean) and areas where we have few eggs
Control: Quakes in the Oceans
All Z-scores less than 0.5

26. Major earthquakes in populated areas
Compared with quakes in the oceans
Covar measure, epoch average
Cum Dev T=0 ± 30 hours
North America and Eurasia
Significant structure around T=0
Scale of departure ~ 80 units
Ocean Quakes
No structure around T=0
Scale of departure ~ 40 units

27. Closer look: T=0 +/- 10 hours
North America Europe and Asia
Unpopulated Ocean regions
Significant structure around T=0
Scale of departure > 50 units
No structure around T=0
Scale of departure ~ 20 units

28. Data split: T=0 ± 8 Hrs North American vs Eurasian Quakes Similar structure, independent subsets

29. Same data as a cumulative deviation
The case for an anticipatory response
Magnified central portion
T=0 ± 50 hr
Raw data
T=0
3-Hour
Gaussian
smooth
Same data as a cumulative deviation
Estimating significance:
The drop between T-7 Hrs and T=0
Corresponds to a Z score of 4.6 
After Bonferroni correction
Compare slope with 3  envelope

30. Many questions remain, e. g. , Fatal quakes should be test case
Many questions remain, e.g., Fatal quakes should be test case. Subset with N > 5 fatalities and R > 5 The picture is less clear.

31. CAUTIONARY NOTES The effects we see are very small, buried in a sea
of noise. Is “signal” an appropriate term?
Statistical and correlational measures. Need to
understand inconsistencies.
Fundamental questions remain unanswered.
(e.g., effects of N of eggs, Distance, Time).
Selectivity of analyses needs balance of independent perspectives and replication.
We invite efforts to confirm or deny these indications.

32. POSSIBILITIES
The GCP database of networked random events is unique. No other resource like it exists.
Opportunity for useful questions and answers. Probably holds surprises.
Fundamental questions that should be asked are known (e. g., N of eggs, Distance, Time).
A couple of years of supported analytical research would break new ground.

33. Complementary Perspectives
GCP Homepage
Special Links
Status
Day Sum
Results
Extract
Complementary Perspectives
Web Design
Rick Berger

34. The following are extras
The following are extras. Some are explanatory, some provide additional info.

35. An example of new perspectives: Is there evidence of periodicity
An example of new perspectives: Is there evidence of periodicity? The generalized short answer is no. But formal events may show FFT spikes

36. Fourier Spectra and Event Echoes Dec 26 2004 Tsunami vs Pseudo Data
Analysis by William Treurniet
The pre-event frame shows a substantial peak (black trace)
Compared with the pseudorandom data (right panel).
And check out post-event frame 3 (pale bluegreen).

37. EGG Network Response (Quakes on Land) Cumulative Deviation of Covariance Primary Temblor +/– 30 Hours
Control Data: Oceans &
Low Population Zones
North America and Eurasia
Note: This is an early figure with somewhat different
Circumscription and hence a different N of quakes.

38. Epoch or Signal Averaging A tool for revealing structure In repeated low S/N ratio events

39. Graphical presentation: Cumulative Deviation Used in Statistical Process Control Engineering
Example, Raw data
Dev from Expectation
Begin Cum
Dev from
Expectation

40. The crossover is exactly at T=0 The minimum is -3 sigma and
Raw data and Gaussian smoothed data
Quakes on land
T=0 ± 30 hours
Raw
3 Hour
Largest spikes are near T=0
1 Hour
The crossover is exactly at T=0
The minimum is -3 sigma and
The maximum is +3 sigma

41. Cumulative deviation of covar for unpopulated
regions (ocean) and areas where we have fewer eggs
South America
Nippon, East Asia
Control: Quakes in the Oceans
No trends, and
No structure
Related to T=0
Range is
1/2 to 1/3 of
Land quakes

42. A very early suggestion that the REG data might show evidence of Precursor response to major events
-5 minutes T =
Cumulative Deviation
From Expectation
95% confidence
Expectation
Assassination of Prime Minister Rabin, 1995