1. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 1/28 Review of the NCEP production Suite: Recent Changes and Plans The short version Hendrik L. Tolman Chief, Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch NOAA / NWS / NCEP / EMC Hendrik.Tolman@NOAA.gov WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE WEATHER AND OCEAN SERVICES BEGIN

2. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 2/28 Mission Statement  The Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch is part of the Environmental Modeling Center. MMAB provides analysis and real-time forecast guidance (1 – 16 days) on marine meteorological, oceanographic, and cryospheric parameters over the global oceans and coastal areas of the U.S. Evaluates quality of retrievals of ocean surface data from satellite borne sensors, improves their quality as needed, and examines the impacts of the data on forecast models. Monitors performance of operational guidance products.

3. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 3/28 Why MMAB ?  Traditionally part of the EMC support to the NWS (OPC, TPC, Regions, WFOs). Justification: General support of meteorological mission.  From weather to Earth System modeling. Safety Of Life At Sea (SOLAS) 1974:  NWS responsible for wind waves. NOAA SAB on Ocean modeling 2004 and IOOS-MAST final report 2008.  NCEP to be the backbone for ocean modeling within NOAA in strong partnership.  Focus on global scales (NOPP, Navy, ….).  Enable/perform regional/coastal (NOS, IOOS, …)  Enable ecosystem modeling.

4. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 4/28 resources  MMAB resources and collaborations: MMAB consists of approximately 10 FTE and 15 contractors.  5-10 bodies short of ideal staffing. Collaboration with all groups and branches within EMC.  Total of 51 FTE and approx. 100 contractors. Collaboration within NOAA:  NOS, OAR, NDBC, NMFS, …. Collaboration with other federal government:  Navy, USACE, USGS, COAST Guard, NASA,.. + Int. Academia and industry ….  Too many to mention ….

5. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 5/28 joint ventures Collaborations to consolidate operational models on NCO managed compute resources:  NOS ocean circulation, PORTS, tidal and inundation models.  Ecosystems pilot projects.  NOS/GLERL water quality for Great Lakes.  Chesapeake Bay pilot projects (sea nettles, HAB).  Tsunami modeling with PMEL / ATWC and PTWC. Enabling organizations outside NCEP to become part of NCEP operational environment,

6. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 6/28 Wind wave modeling

7. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 7/28 waves  Wind wave modeling efforts at NCEP are consolidated on the WAVEWATCH III ® model. Developed as NCEP model, but used as a community modeling framework.  Close to open-source approach, but with license and trademark.  Version 3.14 publicly available since July 2009.  Many external collaborators.  Federal: NRL, FNMOC, USACE, SHOM.  NOPP: Federal + 7 teams from academia.  Non NOPP collaborators (URI, LSU, Alkyon, Delft UT, …..)  Many beta-testers.  Two wave models based on WAVEWATCH III elements.

8. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 8/28 waves  WAVEWATCH III cont’ed: Present capability:  Global multi-grid or mosaic model.  Hurricane wave models (to be transitioned).  Great Lakes wave models (NAM or NDFD winds).  Assimilation of altimeter and buoy data (to be transitioned).  Global wave ensemble  Joint effort with FNMOC, NAEFS/NUOPC. In the pipeline :  Higher spectral resolution of “salt-water” models.  Extension of grids to North Pole.

9. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 9/28 waves Cont’ed  Great Lakes NDFD driven model fixes in processing of NDFD winds.  Deal with inconsistency between consecutive grid masks in NDFD winds.  Flagging of missing data in SMS.  Transitioning of data assimilation to multi-grid model.  Limited resources, no hard time line yet.  Adding FNMOC data to ensemble:  No time line yet, waiting for operational data feed from FNMOC.  Minor bug fixes.

10. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 10/28 waves  Coastal wave modeling requirements have been formulated within the NWS (OSIP 06-093). Based on pilot projects spearheaded by WFO Eureka. Responsibilities to transition to NCEP using localized WAVEWATCH III:  Spiral development with local-central model.  Local off-cycle capability.  AWIPS-II or local workstation. Now funded by NOS through HFIP.  Toward coupled wave-surge capability in collaboration with NOS.  WAVEWATCH III – ADCIRC capability.  NOS ADCIRC model for East Coast for boundary data.  New hires to start April 1 and July 15, 2010.

11. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 11/28 waves  Miscellaneous issues that we are working on: Coupling efforts have started.  HWRF – HYCOM - WAVEWATCH  ESMF (NEMS) version being developed (NRL). NOPP project (NOAA-USACE-ONR, 2010-2014) to address deep water and shelf physics ($2M/year).  Approx. 2012 model physics upgrade.  Approx. 2014 model physics upgrade. Shallow water (mosaic) applications require alternative grid and solution approaches (sub-km scale resolution):  Generalized curvilinear grids (NRL).  Unstructured grids for coastal areas, and coupling to surge (SHOM).

12. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 12/28 Ocean Modeling

13. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 13/28 NOS / NCO CFSRR group  Present ocean modeling capability at NCEP: 1/12º resolution Real Time Ocean Forecast System for North Atlantic Ocean. (RTOFS-Atlantic, HYCOM based).  Deterministic 5-6 day forecast.  Assimilation of most available data with in-house assimilation schemes.  Run once per day. Emerging global HYCOM capability. MOM3-4 (GFDL) ocean model as part of the coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS).  Supporting MOM4 based Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS). Test version of HyCOM-HWRF coupled hurricane model. Emerging NOS capabilities at CCS. ocean

14. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 14/28  Ocean modeling focus at MMAB: RTOFS-Atlantic.  Workhorse development platform (1/12°, rotated). Coupled hurricane modeling.  NWS / HFIP focus and funding (1/6°, rotated).. RTOFS-global.  Adopting Navy 1/12° HYCOM for daily run at NCO.. RTOFS-global-coupled.  Develop global HYCOM capability (1/4° 1/6° ?). ocean

15. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 15/28 RTOFS-Atlantic  Most main issues with operational model have been resolved. Poor model behavior due to operationalizing, not due to our ability to model. Main effort on analysis re- engineering (“hands-off” in operations). Will be main development platform for us. Two main focus areas:  NWS needs (OPC, weather, hurricane).  Community support (NOS, IOOS, Eco., …)

16. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 16/28 old RTOFS-Atlantic upgrade Potential Temperatures from model (left panel) and observations (right panel) at WOCE section A03 new

17. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 17/28 RTOFS-HWRF  Coupled hurricane modeling is a main NWS focus. Funding source for much of my ocean modeling. Presently HYCOM-HWRF in testing. Very positive results:  Our approach: best possible ocean should give best potential for hurrican weather model. Focus on SST and MLD.  Presently coupling with waves too.

18. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 18/28 meld ATMOS.: HWRF O(9 & 27 km) OCEAN: HYCOM –Regional: O(8~14 km) RTOFS-Atlantic (HYCOM–Basin): O(4~17 km) IC Feature Model Wind Data Assimilation (SST, SSH, T&S) using 2D/3DVAR BC SST * Wind-stress * Heat Fluxes * Precipitation * Atm. Pressure Coupled HWRF- HYCOM system GFS: O(25 km)

19. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 19/28

20. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 20/28 ocean subinertial waves Cold wake Real time testing for 2008 hurricane season (Ike). Realistic Oceanic Simulation and Response to a Storm!

21. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 21/28 RTOFS-Global Adopting 1/12° global HYCOM from navy (NAVO/NRL).  We have been able to run code here.  We have established data transfer of initial conditions from NAVO (Not yet hardened).  In-house initialization not before 2015.  Operationalization at NCEP delayed 6 months due to lack of disk space in initial CCS transition.  Parallel testing scheduled for end of 2010.  Full operational implementation as soon as data processing issues have been addressed. Issues:  Processing of results including (GODAE) metrics.  Data dissemination.  Going from Navy to NCEP forcing?

22. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 22/28 RTOFS-global-coupled  First and foremost a NWS project to improve weather to climate capabilities of NWS/NCEP.  Possible member of multi-model ensemble and/or replacement of MOM4 (no in-house expertise or support) Building low-resolution RTOFS-Global for application in NEMS. FY2010 pre-ops deliverables:  NEMS coupler for HYCOM with full regridding.  Initialization from upscaling of RTOFS-Global-HR.  Initialization by using GODAS.  Initial assessment of resolution (hor. - vert. - ML).

23. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 23/28 RTOFS-global-coupled Executing the weather-climate strategy

24. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 24/28 Sea Ice and SST

25. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 25/28 sea ice Northern and Southern Hemisphere daily ice concentration products. Key issue: modeling at weather time scales

26. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 26/28 SST Used as a separate product, and for validating ocean modeling. Most issues with coastal SSTs removed with implementation this week.

27. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 27/28 Final big picture  We want to provide (modeling) services to provide what our customers need. Waves: go-to group for NOAA. Ocean: Part of national backbone, strong collaboration needed. SST/ice, part of international community.  We want your help and feedback, specially on the ocean modeling side, but ….  Know what our missions and mandates are, and tune your expectations accordingly ….

28. Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 28/28