1. Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme with Microwave Imagery (SHIPS-MI): Results from 2006 Daniel J. Cecil University of Alabama/Huntsville cecild@uah.edu

2. SHIPS-MI - Starts with SHIPS predictors - Adds predictors related to inner core latent heating, based on microwave brightness temperatures - Verification here focuses on comparison with SHIPS

3. SHIPS-MI Forecast Intensity Change (DELV) = Sample Mean Climatology and Persistence Environmental Terms Microwave Terms + ++ In E. Pacific: Latitude and 200 hPa Divergence added PSLV and VPER removed

4. 2006 Status Requires TB data from SSMI, TMI, or AMSR-E Timely data only available for ~1/3 of all advisories SHIPS-MI run at NHC in 2006

5. Example: Hurricane Hector 19 GHz85 GHz 1800 UTC 18 August 2006: Hector 85 kt, weakening 237 K Mean 19 GHz TB is well above sample mean, contributes +8 kt to forecast Hector weakened much more slowly than forecast by SHIPS; SHIPS-MI errors were small SSM/I F15

6. 2006 Performance - Atlantic duration 01224364860728496108120 DSHM2.56.49.413.216.220.623.225.423.421.721.3 DSHP2.46.59.613.717.222.324.124.622.219.016.2 OFCL1.86.410.413.715.320.721.817.3 SHF52.46.48.310.211.212.812.913.711.313.012.4 LGEM2.46.48.111.214.217.719.020.119.417.616.4 GFDI2.87.79.511.413.316.418.319.320.218.521.9 NGPI6.411.514.517.318.922.424.727.930.133.634.5 # forecasts 7470645754454236333026 Mean Absolute Errors (kt) DSHM = “Decay SHIPS-MI”

7. 2006 Atlantic storms Poor performance (relative to SHIPS) on early-season Tropical Storms; SHIPS-MI forecasts usually too strong for these cases

8. 2006 Atlantic storms Better performance (relative to SHIPS) on the hurricanes that came later.

9. 2006 Performance - E. Pacific duration 01224364860728496108120 DSHM2.58.511.612.313.113.615.115.515.218.018.8 DSHP2.58.512.914.115.316.217.217.618.420.520.6 OFCL2.07.411.813.014.017.315.617.2 SHF52.59.413.414.516.618.319.019.2 18.920.8 LGEM2.58.912.913.214.815.816.615.514.816.216.6 GFDI3.09.913.514.816.919.423.020.118.716.515.8 NGPI5.713.419.023.126.830.833.330.427.325.426.4 # forecasts 1321191059383665650423125 Mean Absolute Errors (kt) DSHM = “Decay SHIPS-MI”

10. 2006 E. Pacific storms SHIPS-MI and SHIPS often have the same general idea for a weakening or intensification trend, but SHIPS-MI is usually a few kt further in the “right” direction

11. 2006 E. Pacific storms Note improved handling of intensification (Hector) and weakening (John)

12. 2006 E. Pacific storms

13. 2006 Performance - C. Pacific (Ioke) duration 01224364860728496108120 DSHM0.011.627.941.947.155.457.967.773.181.391.7 DSHP0.014.030.744.149.362.466.978.082.486.594.7 OFCL0.610.620.727.1 31.440.048.3 SHF50.016.629.740.642.481.989.110210511097.0 LGEM0.012.428.138.741.352.655.465.970.777.387.2 GFDI0.010.019.422.419.716.711.117.718.718.516.3 NGPI0.09.823.127.926.327.425.029.929.735.728.2 # forecasts 88777777766 Mean Absolute Errors (kt) DSHM = “Decay SHIPS-MI”

14. 2006 Central Pacific Ioke Many problems with Ioke as it approached / crossed dateline; Some predictors computed incorrectly; Horrible statistical forecasts

15. 2006 W. Pacific STIPS-MI adds microwave to the set of STIPS predictors Ioke (a West Pacific supertyphoon with a Central Pacific name and number) required a lot of troubleshooting / debugging Switch from JTWC to NRL for access to STIPS predictors also required a lot of troubleshooting, eventually led to generation of ensemble STIPS- MI Little apparent impact from microwave in STIPS- MI, looks like more trouble than it is worth so far

16. 2006 SHIPS-MI Summary Atlantic: SHIPS-MI did slightly better than SHIPS, worse than most other guidance E. Pacific: SHIPS-MI did much better than SHIPS, better than other guidance at 24-84 h Some of the improvement in East Pacific is due to predictors other than microwave; especially due to inclusion of Latitude predictor (not included in SHIPS)

17. Interactive Web Page http://nsstc.uah.edu/shipsmi/Atlantic/shipsmi.cgi http://nsstc.uah.edu/shipsmi/Pacific/EPACshipsmi.cgi http://nsstc.uah.edu/shipsmi/CentralPacific/CPACshipsmi.cgi

18. http://nsstc.uah.edu/shipsmi/Atlantic/shipsmi.cgi

19. Increasing the Mean 19 GHz TB by 1 Standard Deviation (~25 K) increased the forecast ~ 8 kt.

20. 2007 SHIPS-MI plans Try to add a SHIPS-MI subroutine to DeMaria’s SHIPS code, so a line of SHIPS- MI output can be added to the same page as SHIPS Try to improve access to microwave data, particularly SSMIS