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Unity or Separation A way towards an independent Southern Sudan and beyond…
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Sudan 1960-2010 Gradual independence – 1956 & 2011 & ??? Special case – double colonialism Arab – Islam + British – Christian How many “Sudans”? The debate on Sudanese Identity Colonial border and policy problems – heavy weight to carry
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The CPA (Comprehensive Peace Agreement) - 2005 NCP (National Congress Party) & SPLM (Sudan’s People Liberation Movement) John Garang’s New Sudan - How strong hope turned to mistrust? Milestones of CPA – failed to make Unity attractive Degradation of the Agenda: Preparation for Elections and for Referendum
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Elections – 11-15 April 2010 NCP & SPLM strategic partnership - Omar al- Bashir & Salva Kiir NCP - running from ICC - desperate search for legitimacy SPLM – anything but the referendum International Community - Elections did not meet international standards, BUT the CPA is more important… Local and international observers - Harassment, arrests, intimidation of voters and observers in the North and in the South
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Referendum – 9 January 2011 Preparation – too much to do… Border demarcation – finished till November? The “three areas” – referendum in Abyei & popular consultation in Nuba & Blue Nile Voter registration Resources division – oil and the river Nile Citizenship & Cross border movement Agreement on post-referendum arrangements
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Secession is unstoppable? Who wants to stop it? A failed state is about to be born? An argument from colonial times? The referendum results will be a verdict not only for the past 5, but the past 55 years.
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Intra-South dynamics Ethnic diversity – Dinka, Nuer, Equatorian and the others. Cattle debates, ethnic violences, rebel commanders. Jonglei rising? – Athor, Yauyau, who is next? Possibility of the extension of local conflicts. After secession: 1. Crucial importance of power sharing. 2. Simultan disarmament. 3. Police forces to balance the power of army.
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A new state in 2011? Referendum or Unilateral declaration of independence – the responsibility of recognition – No Eritrea-case again! Secession as an example? Post-referendum arrangements. New census to serve as a basis for power share / good governance. New oil pipes – Lamu? Diplomacy and Trade – turn to East Africa…
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Conclusions International community to give South a chance SPLM to give democracy a chance Garang’s dream might not be fulfilled, but Southern Sudan has the chance now to build a state and a nation.
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Sudan in 2060 Southern Sudan in East Africa? Fragmentation of the North Darfur (+ Nubians, Bejas…) Real Arab-Islamic state for the Riverines? End of violence?
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Thank you for your Attention! Zoltán Illés Corvinus University Budapest nganaszan@yahoo.com nganaszan@yahoo.com
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