1. Transportation leadership you can trust. presented to Healthy Regions, Healthy People Policy and Research Symposium Series presented by Susan B Herbel, Ph.D. Cambridge Systematics, Inc. October 16, 2005 Risky Business Understanding Relative Risks and Safety Trends in Travel and Transportation

2. 1 Understanding the Problem

3. 2 A Progress Report Projected at 1966 RateActual Fatalities 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 196619691972197519781981198419871990199319961999 Number of Fatalities (in Thousands) Year

4. 3 2004 42,636 Fatalities Nearly 3M Injuries $230B+ Cost to the Nation (2000) $820.00 per person 4,365,000 (PDO) crashes (2003)

5. 4 Risky Business: The Consequences Human Economic Mobility Environmental

6. 5 Trends in Motor Vehicle Fatality Rates 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 19231966198019901995200020012002 Year Rate Per Year Fatality Rate per 100 Million VMT Fatality Rate per 100,000 Population 2003

7. 6 Motor Vehicle Fatalities 42,636 42,884 41,945 41,717 42,196 43,005 Source: FARS

8. 7 14,409 2,285 14,678 15,093 14,858 14,870 2,5112,5422,432 2,427 17,381 17,400 17,525 16,694 17,105 Persons Killed in Alcohol-Related Traffic Crashes, By Year

9. 8 Risk Factors: Fatality Characteristics (2003) Failure to wear safety belts (59% unrestrained) Impaired driving (41%) Roadway departures (38%) Speeding (31%) Distracted driving (25%) Intersections (21%) Unlicensed drivers (20%) Pedestrians (11%) Trucks (11%) Motorcycles (8%) Pedalcyclists (2%) Transit (.06%) Total = 267%

10. 9 Fatal Crashes ( 2002) 14% 7% 15% 10% Impaired (30%) Roadway departure (32%) (ROR) Fixed object (23%)

11. 10 Defining the Problem Police Accident Reports Data Management and Coordination Analytic Techniques

12. 11 Is the incident an accident? Damn

13. 12 Addressing the Problem Explicit Planning Factor AASHTO Greenbook and MUTCD Assumption: projects are “safe and efficient” Limited solution sets Independent infrastructure projects Hazard elimination and rail grade crossing programs Behavioral projects (Section 402)

14. 13 What do we worry about? Aggressive Driving Inattentive Driving

15. 14 Aggressive Driving: Most Worrisome Issue (2002) AAA Survey (39% of drivers) The Economist, Dec 14, 2002 p33

16. 15 How new is aggressive driving? 1968 Parry. Aggression on the Road 1971 Whitlock. Aggression responsible for 85% of road crashes in England And before? Claude Guillot, 1707. Louvre

17. 16 Driver Inattention Fatigue and stress Multi-tasking Kids in the back seat Roadside features Eating and drinking What else?

18. 17 We know the problem is not handling the phone – it’s the attention issue.

19. 18 What Do We Need to Worry About? Older Person Safety and Mobility Decision Making Structure

20. 19 Population Pyramid -- 1950

21. 20 Population Pyramid -- 2025

22. 21 Population Pyramid -- 2050

23. 22 The Changing Demographics The Baby Boomers Aging in Place Licensed drivers Vehicle miles traveled Education Health Wealth

24. 23 A Word of Caution!

25. 24 Driver’s License, 65+, 2003 Rosenbloom, TRB, 2005

26. 25 Married, Spouse Present, 65+ Rosenbloom, TRB, 2005

27. 26 Crash Factors for Older Drivers Injury and crash causation factors Frailty Wayfinding and distraction Intersections Signage Pedestrians Safety belts

28. 27 Fatal Crashes per 100 Million Miles Traveled Source: Williams 2003

29. 28 Driver deaths per 1000 driver involvements Source: Braver and Chen 2003

30. 29 Summary Serious public health problem Multivariate risk factors; hence, collaboration New approaches required Standard, “one size fits all” solutions nonexistant Changes in organizational priorities are required.

31. 30 What Do We Need to Worry About? Decision Making Structure Who’s making the rules? Politics vs. Technical Experts “Congestion trumps safety every time.” “The road builders always win.”

32. 31 Safety Solutions TEA-21 Safety Planning Factor SAFETEA-LU Safety Planning Factor Strategic Highway Safety Plans Behavioral Safety Program Traffic Records Earmarks

33. 32 Are we ahead of where we were 30 years ago? Many issues are recurring, but we deal with them using more sophisticated methods. While the driver has not evolved much since the creation of the first motor vehicles, the vehicles and roadways have. The challenge now: application of knowledge gained in understanding behavior in the context of the old systems to the new and rapidly evolving ones. Prof. David Shinar, Ben Gurion University

34. 33 This is not the solution!

35. 34 THANK YOU