1. A Drought History of Alabama, Georgia and the Panhandle of Florida David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D. State Climatologist – Associate Professor Engineering and Atmospheric Sciences The University of Georgia stooks@engr.uga.edu706-583-0156

2. Drought in the Southeast

3. Is a normal component of the climate system Is a normal component of the climate system

4. Drought in the Southeast Is a normal component of the climate system Is a normal component of the climate system Has occurred in the past and will in the future Has occurred in the past and will in the future

5. Drought in the Southeast Is a normal component of the climate system Is a normal component of the climate system Has occurred in the past and will in the future Has occurred in the past and will in the future No evidence of change in drought frequency or intensity No evidence of change in drought frequency or intensity

6. Drought in the Southeast Is a normal component of the climate system Is a normal component of the climate system Has occurred in the past and will in the future Has occurred in the past and will in the future No evidence of change in drought frequency or intensity No evidence of change in drought frequency or intensity At least from a climatic view At least from a climatic view

7. Drought in the Southeast Is a normal component of the climate system Is a normal component of the climate system Has occurred in the past and will in the future Has occurred in the past and will in the future No evidence of change in drought frequency or intensity No evidence of change in drought frequency or intensity Societal Changes change our vulnerability to drought – both increasing and decreasing our vulnerability Societal Changes change our vulnerability to drought – both increasing and decreasing our vulnerability

8. Societal Changes in the Southeast

9. Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II

10. Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Accelerated growth since 1980 Accelerated growth since 1980

11. Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Accelerated growth since 1980 Accelerated growth since 1980 1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1,000,000 1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1,000,000

12. Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Accelerated growth since 1980 Accelerated growth since 1980 1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1 million 1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1 million 1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million 1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million

13. Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Accelerated growth since 1980 Accelerated growth since 1980 1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1 million 1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1 million 1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million 1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million 2008 – Metro Atlanta over 4.5 million 2008 – Metro Atlanta over 4.5 million

14. Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Accelerated growth since 1980 Accelerated growth since 1980 1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1 million 1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1 million 1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million 1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million 2009 – Metro Atlanta over 4.5 million 2009 – Metro Atlanta over 4.5 million 2009 – State of Georgia over 9 million 2009 – State of Georgia over 9 million

15. Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Accelerated growth since 1980 Accelerated growth since 1980 Growth has be unevenly distributed Growth has be unevenly distributed

16. Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Accelerated growth since 1980 Accelerated growth since 1980 Growth has be unevenly distributed Growth has be unevenly distributed Along the coast Along the coast Northern Piedmont – top of the water shed Northern Piedmont – top of the water shed

17. Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Landscape changes Landscape changes

18. Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Landscape changes Landscape changes Urban sprawl – changes in the watershed flow patterns Urban sprawl – changes in the watershed flow patterns

19. Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Landscape changes Landscape changes Urban sprawl – changes in the watershed flow patterns Urban sprawl – changes in the watershed flow patterns Conversion of row crop fields to forest (started in 1920s) Conversion of row crop fields to forest (started in 1920s)

20. Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Landscape changes Landscape changes Agricultural Changes Agricultural Changes

21. Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Landscape changes Landscape changes Agricultural Changes Agricultural Changes Shift in amount in land in row crops and trees Shift in amount in land in row crops and trees

22. Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Landscape changes Landscape changes Agricultural Changes Agricultural Changes Shift in amount in land in row crops and trees Shift in amount in land in row crops and trees Increase in irrigation Increase in irrigation

23. Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Landscape changes Landscape changes Agricultural Changes Agricultural Changes Shift in amount in land in row crops and trees Shift in amount in land in row crops and trees Increase in irrigation Increase in irrigation Increase in urban agriculture – the “green” industry Increase in urban agriculture – the “green” industry

24. Climate Trends Across the Southeast

25. Since 1900 – No trend in yearly precipitation Since 1900 – No trend in yearly precipitation Since 1900 – No trend to slight cooling in yearly average temperatures Since 1900 – No trend to slight cooling in yearly average temperatures

26. The Drivers Location, Location, Location El Nio and La Nia El Ni ñ o and La Ni ñ a

27. Coupled Air-Sea Interactions The El Nino/La Nina cycle is the predominant mode of year to year climate variability. “The CPC seasonal forecasts lack useful skill in the absence of a strong El Niño/La Niña event” - Bob Livezey

28. Tracking Tracking the El Niño /La Niña Cycle Sea surface temperature anomalies averaged over the Nino 3.4 portion of the equatorial Pacific Ocean Smoothed with a three-month running average to reduce noise

29. Winter Jet Stream Patterns During El Niño and La Niña El Niño La Niña

30. El Niño Effects on Precipitation

31. La Niña Effects on Precipitation

32. Alabama Droughts

33. Georgia Droughts

35. Annual North Central Georgia

36. Annual West Central Georgia

37. Annual Alabama Piedmont Plateau

38. Annual Southwest Georgia

39. Annual Coastal Plain Alabama

40. Annual Northwest Florida

41. The Seasonal Distribution is IMPORTANT

42. Typical Recharge in North Georgia - Courtesy SERFC

43. Response of Hydrologic Systems Response of Hydrologic Systems Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee, Florida

44. ENSO and Flow Rates ENSO and Flow Rates Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee, Florida

45. Rainfall By Seasons

46. Winter North Central Georgia

47. Spring North Central Georgia

48. Summer North Central Georgia

49. Fall North Central Georgia

50. Winter West Central Georgia

51. Spring West Central Georgia

52. Summer West Central Georgia

53. Fall West Central Georgia

54. Winter Piedmont Plateau Alabama

55. Spring Piedmont Plateau Alabama

56. Summer Piedmont Plateau Alabama

57. Fall Piedmont Plateau Alabama

58. Winter Southwest Georgia

59. Spring Southwest Georgia

60. Summer Southwest Georgia

61. Fall Southwest Georgia

62. Winter Coastal Plain Alabama

63. Spring Coastal Plain Alabama

64. Summer Coastal Plain Alabama

65. Fall Coastal Plain Alabama

66. Winter Northwest Florida

67. Spring Northwest Florida

68. Summer Northwest Florida

69. Fall Northwest Florida

70. Tree Ring Drought Information Long-term Droughts (3 or more years PDI < -0.99) Long-term Droughts (3 or more years PDI < -0.99) 1756-1760 1756-1760 1762-1764 1762-1764 1797-1802 1797-1802 1855-1857 1855-1857 1896-1899 1896-1899 1925-1927 1925-1927 1954-1956 1954-1956 1998-2002 1998-2002 2006-2009 2006-2009

71. Tree Ring Drought Information Long-term Droughts (3 or more years PDI < -0.99) Long-term Droughts (3 or more years PDI < -0.99) 1756-1760 1756-1760 1762-1764 1762-1764 1797-1802 1797-1802 1855-1857 1855-1857 1896-1899 1896-1899 1925-1927 1925-1927 1954-1956 1954-1956 1998-2002 1998-2002 2006-2009 2006-2009 Long-term drought about once in 40 years Long-term drought about once in 40 years

72. Tree Ring Drought Information Long-term Droughts (2 or more years PDI < -0.99) Long-term Droughts (2 or more years PDI < -0.99) 1756-17601762-17641797-1802 1855-18571896-18991925-1927 1954-19561998-20022006-2009 Adds the following years Adds the following years 1708-1709 1708-1709 1714-1715 1714-1715 1839-1840 1839-1840 1844-1845 1844-1845 1914-1915 1914-1915

73. Tree Ring Drought Information Long-term Droughts (2 or more years) Long-term Droughts (2 or more years) 1756-17601762-17641797-1802 1855-18571896-18991925-1927 1954-19561998-20022006-2009 Adds the following years Adds the following years 1708-17091714-17151839-1840 1844-18451914-1915 Return interval is now once in 25 years

74. Some Drought Monitoring Tools

75. US Drought Monitor

76. Lawn and Garden Index

77. Summer Drought and Moistness Index Alabama 900-2009 1542 2007 9th Driest

78. Summary

79. Summary Droughts are a normal component of the climate system Droughts are a normal component of the climate system

80. Summary We will have droughts in the future We will have droughts in the future

81. Summary Droughts are a normal component of the climate system Droughts are a normal component of the climate system We will have droughts in the future We will have droughts in the future No trend in southeastern climate since 1900 No trend in southeastern climate since 1900

82. Summary Droughts are a normal component of the climate system Droughts are a normal component of the climate system We will have droughts in the future We will have droughts in the future No trend in southeastern climate since 1900 No trend in southeastern climate since 1900 More people but the same amount of water More people but the same amount of water