1. Sustainability Freshman Inquiry Jan. 25, 2010 Jeff Fletcher

2. Logistics Service experiences –Recyclemania and/or Garden Preparation Possible EC assignment –Food Inc. Sunday 1/31 8pm Ondine Lobby Due Now: Reading Questions Ch. 5-7 Kolbert Due Wednesday: HW 2 (Bad Apples) Due Next Monday: –Read Kolbert Chapters 8, 9, 10, afterward and chronology (p. 150-203) Mentor Session Today –Stakeholders, Review requirements for HW2 BE SURE TO VOTE (by tomorrow)!! –Too late to mail.

3. Key Ideas About Systems What makes a system? –Elements and Relations –order vs. disorder –system vs. environment Systems States and Dynamics –Equilibria, Stability Positive and Negative Feedbacks –Non-linear dynamics Chaos Theory, Catastrophe Theory –Emergence –Structure Open vs. Closed Matter, Energy, Information

4. Complex Systems Yield Surprises Most models of systems are linear –Change in state predicted to be proportional to change in inputs Most real and complex systems are non-linear –Systems with feedback are often unpredictable –Small causes can have big effects Butterfly effect from Chaos theoryButterfly effect Catastrophe theory: state is not reversible by reversing causeCatastrophe theory –Current financial crisis is great example Emergence

5. Examples from Atmosphere Is CO2 effect proportional to its abundance in atmosphere? –What proportion is CO2?What proportion is CO2 Caution in reading graphs What is ppm in percent? –nitrogen (78%), oxygen (21%) and argon (.93%) = 99.93% of atmosphere! Methane also has disproportionate effectsMethane Ozone hole: example of unintended consequences and irreversibility (video)video –http://www.youtube.com/v/qUfVMogIdr8&hl=en&rel=0 &color1=0x006699&color2=0x54abd6http://www.youtube.com/v/qUfVMogIdr8&hl=en&rel=0 &color1=0x006699&color2=0x54abd6 –Big hole until 2017, then hole will start to shrink; back to 1980 level in year 2070! –Example of not reversible, directionality

6. Summary Another way to think about systems: –Complex systems have inherent problems that are affected by their systems characteristics Characteristics worth thinking about include: –Dynamics (equilibria, +/- feedbacks, non-linearity, emergence, discontinuous change) –Structure of relationships Open vs closed (matter, energy, entrpy) Degree of hierarchy Hierarchy of Matter, energy, information

7. Possible Models Group Assignments –Thermohaline Circulation –Significance of Comma Butterflies –Golden Toads –Mosquitoes (Wyeomyia smithii)

8. Groups Activity Before you leave today: –arrange a time to meet with your group in the evening or on the weekend (before next Monday) in Broadway –make sure you have contact info for your fellow group members Meet briefly (~15 – 30 minutes) with your group and discuss the following points about your assigned model organism or computer model: –What is the main point illustrated by this model? (e.g. this is an expansion of what was on the quiz) –What are the details of your model system that illustrate this main point? –How is this main point connected to Global Warming? –Is it a good model for illustrating the main point? Can you think of a better one? EVERY member of each group should take their own handwritten notes and be prepare to present for two minutes in a future group on this topic.

9. Catastrophe: Group Follow-up Thermohaline Circulation (N. Atlantic) (worldwide)Thermohaline Circulationworldwide –8,200 years ago thermohaline disruption?thermohaline disruption Comma Butterfly of England Golden Toad (Monteverde Cloud Forest)Golden ToadMonteverde Cloud Forest Wyeomyia smithii MosquitoMosquito –Video ( http://www.uoregon.edu/~mosquito/media/bo ston_globe_29_apr_2007.mov)Video http://www.uoregon.edu/~mosquito/media/bo ston_globe_29_apr_2007.mov –Polar Bears vs. Mosquitoes—who is doing better and why? –Phenotypic Plasticity vs. Natural Selection