1. New Mexico Population Projections: Assumptions, Methods, Validation, and Results For the Data User Conference Geospatial and Population Studies University of New Mexico Nov. 2013

2. Method  Using the Census 2010 county level age-sex break-ups as the base year anchor population.  Using NMDOH Birth Records to calculate 5-year average 5-year age group birth rate.  Using NMDOH Death Records to calculate 5-year average single-year ASMR.  Migration from three sources: forward surviving, backward surviving, and IRS tax return exempts. 1

3. 2 Method Summary Single Year Age Population Projection Process Base Population Birth Death Migration Future Population 1 year or 5 year age group population by sex Basic Population Component Data input Sex Ratio Childbearing age population ASFR CDR TFR ASMRLife Table and Life Expectancy IRS cross tabulated migration Census Forward Survival migration Decomposing Process to fit into Cohort Component Method Input + - + =

4.  Total fertility rate, TFR, is used as the assumption for birth, and is assumed to converge at 2.1 at the end of projection period.  Life expectancy is used to represent the assumption for mortality, and is assumed to converge at national level at the end of projection period.  Migration population is assumed to join and share the same TFR and life expectancy as local people. 3 Assumptions

5. 4 Migration Method: Forward Surviving Bernalillo County556,678662,56447,2354724 Age in yearsMale Proportion of SurvivingCensusForward SurvivalCensus 2000 2001200220032004200520062007200820092010 Net Migration x to x+1px271,904324,46023,016 0 - 100.9908403542134391437446244711495450556631646061584,469-1,689 1 - 210.9997402539984174435143344582466849095009657064014,524-1,877 2 - 320.9996385440243997417343494332458046664907500765684,816-1,752 3 - 430.9996370438534022399541714348433145784665490550054,828-177 4 - 540.9997386937033851402139944170434643294577466349034,618-285 5 - 650.9997392138683702385040203993416943454328457546624,487-175 6 - 760.9999389339203867370138494018399141684344432745744,406-168 7 - 870.9998394338933919386637003848401839914167434343264,477151 8 - 980.9999401139423892391938663699384840173990416643424,541199 9 - 1090.9999403040113942389239183865369938484017399041664,607441 Female2000 2001200220032004200520062007200820092010 Net Migration x to x+1px284,774338,10424,220 0 - 100.9938395241444350431744304586467947556332618958904,293-1,597 1 - 210.9996383439274118432342904403455846504726629361514,397-1,754 2 - 320.9996372438333926411743214289440145564648472462904,500-1,790 3 - 430.9996375237223831392441154319428743994554464647224,462-260 4 - 540.9998381737513721382939234113431842854397455246444,370-274 5 - 650.9998374538163750372038283922411243174284439645514,414-137 6 - 760.9999383337443815374937193828392141114316428343954,49398 7 - 870.9999384538333744381537483719382739204111431542834,462179 8 - 980.9999385438453832374338143748371838273920411043154,40186 9 - 1090.9998394138543844383237433814374837183826392041104,316206 10 - 11101.0000389139403853384438313742381337473717382639194,336417 11 - 12110.9999385438913940385338443831374238133747371738264,237411 12 - 13120.9998385238543891394038533843383137423813374737174,168451 13 - 14130.9999382838513853389039393852384338303741381337464,213467

6. 5 Migration Method: Backward Surviving Bernalillo County662,564556,67854,9705497 MaleProportion of SurvivingBackward SurvivalCensus 2010200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102000Net Migration px324,460271,90426,111 910.8549888795808289154148184195234138-50 920.84027675 8169707613112615716799-23 930.819464 63 68585964110106132631 940.807853 52 51564748539087449 950.823943 42 4538394273403 960.776636 35 34373132352214 970.779428 27 292425226 980.707922 21 2319715 990.818216 15 16106 1000.000013 12 130 2010200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102000Net Migration px338,104284,77428,859 890.8980442382339421428501499533581601683514-72 900.87574693963433043783854504484795225404663 910.8589417411347301266331337394392419457304113 920.8519363358353298258229284289339337360247116 930.832131330930530125422019524224628828721598 940.833826426025725425021118316220120524018678 950.792022322021721421220917615313516817112697 960.79431791761741721701681651401211071338495 970.729414414214013813713513313111196856084 980.754410610510410210110098979681703472 990.816881807978777675747372614338 1000.0000676665 64636261 6059670

7. 6 Migration Method: Average Three Sets of Migration Data  Average age-sex structure from forward and backward surviving method  Apply the averaged age-sex structure to the tax return exempt county totals  Average the three sets of migration data to obtain the data for migration input  Run Cohort Component Model

8. 7 Migration Method: Comparison Forward Surviving Backward Surviving Tax Exempt Total 9,3378,7327,800 New Mexico Annual Total Net Migration 10 year average, both sex

9. Validation: Natural Increase and Migration 8  The percentage contribution of natural increase and net migration changes over the 30 years. YearNatural Increase % Net Migration % 201150.4%49.6% 204036.7%63.3% Average41.8%58.2%

10. Validation: Dependency Ratio for Young Group 9

11. 10 Validation: Dependency Ratio for Senior Group

12. 11 Validation: Dependency Ratio over Projection Period

13. Comparison of Historical Trend 12

14. Using Excel Macro Program to Retrieve Customized Data Table 13 Result

15. 14 Contact ： Xiaomin Ruan xmruan@gmail.com 505-277-3541 Thank you!