1. Watch in slide show mode to observe (modest) animation. comments questions: dan.kahan@yale.edudan.kahan@yale.edu papers, etc: www.culturalcognition.netwww.culturalcognition.net

2. Cognitive Illiberalism: Anatomy of a Bias www.culturalcognition.net

3. What am I talking about? Cultural cognition cognitive illiberalism 1. Model: Cultural cognition as bias

4. Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds Unbiased Evidence Assessment

5. Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Confirmation Bias prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds

6. Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Cultural Worldview Cultural Cognition Bias prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds

7. Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Cultural Worldview prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds Cultural Cognition Bias

8. Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Cultural Worldview Cultural Cognition Bias prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds

9. What am I talking about? Cultural cognition cognitive illiberalism 1. Model: Cultural cognition as bias

11. Source: Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, 147-74 (2011).

12. High Risk (science conclusive) Low Risk (science inconclusive) Climate Change

13. Low Risk (safe) High Risk (not safe) Geologic Isolation of Nuclear Wastes

14. High Risk (Increase crime) Low Risk (Decrease Crime) Concealed Carry Laws

15. Climate Change Nuclear Power Climate Change Nuclear Power Guns/Gun Control Risk Perception Key: Low Risk High Risk Mary Douglas’s “Group-Grid” Worldview Scheme Environmental Risk Abortion Compulsory psychiatric treatment Compulsory psychiatriatic treatment Guns/Gun Control HPV Vaccination Egalitarian Communitarian Individualist Hierarchist

16. High Risk (science conclusive) Low Risk (science inconclusive) Climate Change

17. Low Risk (safe) High Risk (not safe) Geologic Isolation of Nuclear Wastes

18. High Risk (Increase crime) Low Risk (Decrease Crime) Concealed Carry Laws

19. N = 1,500. Derived from ordered-logit regression analysis, controlling for demographic and political affiliation/ideology variables. Culture variables set 1 SD from mean on culture scales. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence Concealed Carry Climate Change Nuclear Power 31% 54% 22% 58% 61% 72% Pct. Point Difference in Likelihood of Selecting Response 60% 40% 20% 0 20% 40% 60% Egalitarian Communitarian More Likely to Agree Hierarchical Individualist More Likely to Agree Featured scientist is a knowledgeable and credible expert on...

20. Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Cultural Worldview Cultural Cognition Bias prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds

22. Source: Kahan, Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of Nanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009) Perceive Benefits > Risks * Change across conditions significant at p < 0.05 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

23. Source: Kahan, Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of Nanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009) * Change across conditions significant at p < 0.05 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Perceive Benefits > Risks

24. Source: Kahan, Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of Nanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009) * Change across conditions significant at p < 0.05 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Perceive Benefits > Risks

25. Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Cultural Worldview Cultural Cognition Bias prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds

26. Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Cultural Worldview Cultural Cognition Bias prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds

27. Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Cultural Worldview Cultural Cognition Bias prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds

28. What am I talking about? Cultural cognition cognitive illiberalism 1. Model: Cultural cognition as bias

29. www.culturalcognition.net “They Saw a Protest”: Cognitive Illiberalism and the Noncommunicative Harm Principle Stanford Law Review (in press)

30. Did protestors cross the line between “speech” and “intimidation”?

31. Experimental Conditions Recruitment Center ConditionAbortion Clinic Condition

32. Experimental Conditions Recruitment Center ConditionAbortion Clinic Condition

33. Select fact perception items Case-outcome items

34. Experimental Conditions Recruitment Center ConditionAbortion Clinic Condition

35. “The record confirms that any distress occasioned by Westboro’s picketing turned on the content and viewpoint of the message conveyed, rather than any interference with the funeral itself.” Snyder v. Phelps, 131 S. Ct. 1207 (2011)

36. Hierarchy Egalitarianism Individualism Cultural Cognition Worldviews Communitarianism hierarchical individualists hierarchical communitarians egalitarian communitariansegalitarian individualists

37. Anti- demonstrator Pro- demonstrator Hypotheses “Complete Polarization” “Semi-polarization”

38. Pct. Agree Sample-wide Responses

39. Pct. Agree Abortion Clinic Recruitment Ctr

40. Pct. Agree Abortion Clinic Recruitment Ctr

41. Anti- demonstrator Pro- demonstrator “Complete Polarization” “Semi-polarization” Hypotheses

42. Pct. Agree Protestors blocked Screamed in face Pedestrians just not want to listen Police just annoyed

43. Anti-demonstrator Pro-demonstrator pro_protestor (z-score) N = 196. Dependent variable is pro_protestor (z-score). Bold denotes significant at p < 0.05

44. Discussion: 1. Decisionmaking bias * cognitive * legal /normative 2. Liberal democratic legitimacy 3. Debiasing * self-affirmation (jury) * “Aporia” (judges) } Cognitive Illiberalism

45. Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds 100:1 1:100

46. Prior Factual Belief Scream in Face Revised Factual Belief 10 prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds 10:1 1:1000 100:1 1:100 New Evidence

47. Prior Factual Belief Revised Factual Belief 10 1 New Evidence 10:1 1:100 100:1 1:100 prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds

48. Prior Factual Belief Revised Factual Belief Cultural Worldview 10 1 100:1 1:100 10:1 1:100 prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds

49. Prior Factual Belief Revised Factual Belief Cultural Worldview 10 1 100:1 1:100 10:1 1:100 prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds

50. Discussion: 1. Decisionmaking bias * cognitive * legal /normative 2. Liberal democratic legitimacy 3. Debiasing * self-affirmation (jury) * “Aporia” (judges) } Cognitive Illiberalism

51. What am I talking about? Cultural cognition cognitive illiberalism 1. Model: Cultural cognition as bias

52. Dan M. Kahan Yale Law School Donald Braman George Washington University John Gastil University of Washington Geoffrey Cohen Stanford University Paul Slovic University of Oregon Ellen Peters Ohio State University Hank Jenkins-Smith University of Oklahoma David Hoffman Temple Law School Gregory Mandel Temple Law School Maggie Wittlin Cultural Cognition Project Lab Lisa Larrimore-Ouelette Cultural Cognition Project Lab Danieli Evans Cultural Cognition Project Lab June Carbone Univ. Missouri-Kansas City Michael Jones Safra Ethics Center, Harv. Univ. Naomi Cahn George Washington University Jeffrey Rachlinksi Cornell Law School John Byrnes Cultural Cognition Project Lab John Monahan University of Virginia

53. www. culturalcognition.net “I am you!”