1. 1 Using the Cohort Studies: Understanding the postponement of parenthood to later ages Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change University of Southampton, UK 5 th ESRC Research Methods Festival 2-5 th July, 2012

2. 2 Motivation: UK Context Trends Relative high fertility: TFR~1.9, CFS~1.9 Persistently high teenage parenthood in context of increasing mean age at first birth Social polarisation of childbearing Explanations from literature Higher education Labour force participation of women Economic uncertainty Ideational change Partnership dynamics as a proximate determinant

3. 3 Research Questions 1. How have the predictors of fertility postponement changed across cohorts? –Education –Partnership status 2. What factors are associated with the recuperation of fertility? How have these changed across cohorts? –Fertility intentions –Economic uncertainty –Partnership status

4. Sample design of 1958 and 1970 birth cohorts Age at which interviews completed 1958 cohort (NCDS) 0711162333424650 1970 cohort (BCS) 05101630343842 4

5. 5 Analytical framework Childbearing patterns Parental socio- demographic background Childhood experiences Partnership trajectories Employment trajectories Age Historical time Fertility intentions

6. 6 Methods: Discrete time event history analysis of conception leading to first birth Monthly indicator of a conception occurrence Parental background Childhood indicators Educational enrolment (time-varying) and attainment (time-varying) Partnership status (time-varying) Plus fixed covariates measured at age 33/30 –Intentions –Economic activity status

7. 7 Some findings on postponement (1/4) Percentage females who had a child by age 30 according to father’s social class, 1958 and 1970 cohorts

8. 8 Some findings on postponement (2/4) Percentage of those childless at age 30 who intended to become a parent according to educational qualification

9. 9 Some findings on postponement (3/4) % achieved at least one child by age 38 MenWomen Intended to have a child 57.762.9 Uncertain35.838.7 Did not intend to have a child 14.621.5 Percentage 1970 cohort who achieved a birth according to childbearing intentions at age 30

10. 10 Some findings on postponement (4/4) The role of economic uncertainty Discrete time hazards model of monthly probability of first birth after age 30 Model 1: Unadjusted Model 2: plus parental and childhood characteristics, education, economic activity, socio-economic group Model 3: plus childbearing intentions Model 4: plus partnership status

11. 11 1970 cohort: Odds ratios for first birth between exact age 30 and exact age 38 by economic activity Model 1 unadjusted Model 2 + socio- economic Model 3 + intentions Model 4 + partner status Males FT employee1111 FT self employed1.00 0.961.09 Part time0.46**0.48** 0.73 Unemployed0.43***0.45*** 0.96 Sick / disabled0.30***0.34***0.41**1.04 Other0.56**0.58*0.57*1.00 Females FT employee1111 FT self employed1.121.081.061.12 Part time0.70**0.73**0.76*0.73** Unemployed0.47***0.50*0.48**0.84 Sick / disabled0.42***0.43**0.520.76 Other0.70*0.730.780.81

12. 12 Some conclusions (1/2) 1970 birth cohort experienced strong postponement but also significant recuperation –Increased social polarisation Effect of partnership status on risks of conception leading to first birth is stable over time and is similar for men and women –But 1958 cohort more likely to marry before the actual birth. Educational enrolment –Effect especially strong for younger cohort Among those who remain childless in their thirties, more educated men and women have more positive intentions to childbearing

13. 13 Some conclusions (2/2) There is a considerable amount of uncertainty in intentions, particularly among highly qualified women –Role conflicts Unfulfilled childbearing intentions –Suggest significant barriers to fertility remain for some Residual group of socio-economically disadvantaged individuals (particularly men) find it difficult to form a co- residential partnership and thus make the transition to parenthood. –Note 1990s recession – impacted on recuperation of births for 1958 cohort and postponement of births 1970 cohort

14. 14 Further information For more information see: Berrington and Pattaro (2011) The Recuperation of Fertility at Older Ages: A Cross-Cohort Comparison of the Role of Education, Fertility Intentions and Partnership Careers. http://www.cpc.ac.uk/research_programme/?link=postponement.php

15. 15 Acknowledgements This research is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (Grant number RES-625-28-0001). Serena Pattaro helped derive the data and undertake some of the analyses. The National Child Development Study is maintained and developed by the Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Institute of Education, University of London and was made available via the Data Archive. We thank staff at the Centre for Longitudinal Studies for their help in answering various queries relating to the data and for their help in cleaning the partnership histories.