1. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use1 A Sample Presentation of The State of the Church in Minnesota and the Minneapolis / St. Paul Metro Area Dave Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org

2. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use2 The first 20 slides are from the “State of the Church in Minnesota” Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 43 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UMN20.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UMN20.htm

3. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use3 In 1996, polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group. For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought.

4. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use4 The Intent of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two key questions: “How Many People Really Attend Church in Minnesota Every Week?” “Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or Backwards in Influence in Minnesota?” As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Minnesota will begin to take shape.

5. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use5 This study uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Minnesota has an attendance percentage (23.2%) that is higher than the average for the nation (18.7%).

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7. 7 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Minnesota.

8. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use8 15.4% Saint Louis 16.1% Cass 16.5% Beltrami 16.5% Sherburne 16.7% Isanti 16.9% Anoka 17.1% Kanabec 17.8% Dakota 18.0% Pine 18.4% Chisago 18.9% Carlton 20.3% Itasca 20.6% Clay 21.1% Clearwater 21.9% Aitkin 22.0% Nicollet 22.2% Washington 22.4% Hennepin 22.5% Lake 22.5% Hubbard 22.7% Ramsey 22.7% Le Sueur 23.1% Scott 23.1% Cook 23.2% Wright 23.3% Rice 23.7% Roseau 23.7% Carver 24.3% Koochiching 24.6% Benton 24.9% Crow Wing 25.0% Meeker 25.8% Pennington 26.0% Todd 26.1% Freeborn 26.2% Pope 26.2% Blue Earth 26.3% Polk 26.6% Lyon 26.7% Goodhue 26.9% Winona 27.3% Becker 27.8% Norman 27.9% Chippewa 28.1% Kandiyohi 28.2% Mahnomen 28.2% Otter Tail 28.2% Wilkin 28.3% Dodge 29.0% Stearns 29.2% Douglas 29.4% Olmsted 29.7% Jackson 29.9% Morrison 30.0% Mower 30.3% Fillmore 30.6% Sibley 30.7% Lac Qui Parle 30.8% Steele 31.0% Kittson 31.2% Waseca 31.2% Yellow Medicine 31.3% McLeod 31.9% Lake Of The Woods 31.9% Brown 31.9% Watonwan 32.6% Swift 32.7% Traverse 33.3% Mille Lacs 33.7% Wabasha 33.8% Lincoln 33.8% Wadena 34.1% Faribault 34.5% Stevens 34.6% Marshall 35.0% Renville 35.0% Murray 35.3% Red Lake 36.2% Houston 36.8% Redwood 36.8% Martin 36.9% Big Stone 36.9% Grant 38.8% Rock 39.0% Nobles 43.2% Cottonwood 43.4% Pipestone 0.0% to 24.6% 24.6% to 30.8% 30.8% to 44.4% Minnesota Counties 2000 Percentage of the Population at Worship in Christian Churches on any Given Sunday Blue = Lowest Maroon = Middle Beige = Highest

9. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use9 The Next 2 Maps show the population numbers for each county in Minnesota. The first map shows the population of each county. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 1990 - 2000.

10. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use10 4,134 Traverse 4,299 Red Lake 4,522 Lake Of The Woods 5,168 Cook 5,190 Mahnomen 5,285 Kittson 5,820 Big Stone 6,289 Grant 6,429 Lincoln 7,138 Wilkin 7,442 Norman 8,067 Lac Qui Parle 8,423 Clearwater 9,165 Murray 9,721 Rock 9,895 Pipestone 10,053 Stevens 10,155 Marshall 11,058 Lake 11,080 Yellow Medicine 11,236 Pope 11,268 Jackson 11,876 Watonwan 11,956 Swift 12,167 Cottonwood 13,088 Chippewa 13,584 Pennington 13,713 Wadena 14,355 Koochiching 14,996 Kanabec 15,301 Aitkin 15,356 Sibley 16,181 Faribault 16,338 Roseau 16,815 Redwood 17,154 Renville 17,731 Dodge 18,376 Hubbard 19,526 Waseca 19,718 Houston 20,832 Nobles 21,122 Fillmore 21,610 Wabasha 21,802 Martin 22,330 Mille Lacs 22,644 Meeker 24,426 Todd 25,425 Lyon 25,426 Le Sueur 26,530 Pine 26,911 Brown 27,150 Cass 29,771 Nicollet 30,000 Becker 31,287 Isanti 31,369 Polk 31,671 Carlton 31,712 Morrison 32,584 Freeborn 32,821 Douglas 33,680 Steele 34,226 Benton 34,898 McLeod 38,603 Mower 39,650 Beltrami 41,101 Chisago 41,203 Kandiyohi 43,992 Itasca 44,127 Goodhue 49,985 Winona 51,229 Clay 55,099 Crow Wing 55,941 Blue Earth 56,665 Rice 57,159 Otter Tail 64,417 Sherburne 70,205 Carver 89,498 Scott 89,986 Wright 124,277 Olmsted 133,166 Stearns 200,528 Saint Louis 201,130 Washington 298,084 Anoka 355,904 Dakota 511,035 Ramsey 1,116,200 Hennepin 0 to 20,000 20,000 to 100,000 100,000 to 1,116,201 Minnesota Counties 2000 Population at Blue = Lowest Maroon = Middle Beige = Highest

11. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use11 Minnesota Counties 1990 - 2000 Population Increase Blue = Lowest Maroon = Middle Beige = Highest

12. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use12 The Next 2 Slides show the ethnicity of Minnesota in 1990 and 2000. The third slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group.

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16. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use16 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Minnesota in 1990 and 2000. Most noteworthy is the growth of Evangelical churches and the decline of Mainline and Catholic churches. Unfortunately, as overall worship attendance has remained quite stable, the population has grown. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph.

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19. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use19 The 3 Next Charts show the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in Minnesota. The Pie Chart shows how much Lutherans and Catholics predominate in Minnesota. The second and third charts show that all groups have declined with the exception of the Baptists, the 3 Sisters and the Pentecostals. (The 3 Sisters are 3 similar evangelical denominations originally from Sweden, the Baptist General Conference, the Evangelical Free Church and the Evangelical Covenant Church.)

23. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use23 The Complete Minnesota Powerpoint is 43 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UMN20.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UMN20.htm

24. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use24 The next 7 slides are from the “State of the Church in Mpls./St. Paul” Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 55 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/me/met45.htm It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/me/met45.htm

25. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use25 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in the Minneapolis/St. Paul metro in 1990 and 2000. Evangelicals, Mainline and Catholics all grew in attendance numbers. As population has grown however, a more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph.

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28. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use28 The Next Chart shows the 1990 & 2000 average church attendance by group for both this metro area and the nation. The second chart shows the 1990 & 2000 population per Christian church for this area and the nation. In 2000, Arkansas had the lowest population per church ratio with 411 people per church. Utah had the highest ratio with 4,586 people per church.

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31. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use31 The Next 3 Maps show the attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in the Minneapolis/St. Paul metro area.

32. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use32 Minneapolis/St. Paul Metro Area 2000 Evangelical Percentage Hennepin Carver Scott Washington Dakota Anoka 9.7% 8.3% 5.1% 4.4% 5.2% 5.8% 7.7% Ramsey Beige = Higher Rose = Middle Blue = Lower

33. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use33 The Complete Mpls. / St. Paul Powerpoint is 55 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/me/met45.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/me/met45.htm

34. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use34 This Presentation is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 200,000 individual churches. It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for over 300,000 orthodox Christian churches. 1 1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.

35. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use35 For More Information... Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional information on the American Church.www.theamericanchurch.org 12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm. htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm. htm The complete Minnesota Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UMN20.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UMN20.htm The Complete Minneapolis/St. Paul Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/me/met45.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/me/met45.htm A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Minnesota and Twin Cities Powerpoints) is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/MN0.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/MN0.htm