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& Conducted August 23-25, 1998 N=1,000 “Likely” Registered Voters Nationwide, With A +3.1% Margin Of Error.

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Presentation on theme: "& Conducted August 23-25, 1998 N=1,000 “Likely” Registered Voters Nationwide, With A +3.1% Margin Of Error."— Presentation transcript:

1 & Conducted August 23-25, 1998 N=1,000 “Likely” Registered Voters Nationwide, With A +3.1% Margin Of Error

2 How interested are you in this year’s elections? & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

3 Q1 Do you feel things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track? & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

4 Q2 What do you think is the number one problem facing this part of the country today? & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

5 Q3 On which of the following issues do you want Congress to focus? & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

6 Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President? & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error * Dec-93 through 97 all registered voters

7 Q5 Whether you approve or disapprove of the way Clinton is handling his job, what is your impression of Bill Clinton as a person? & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

8 Bill Clinton- Job Approval Vs. Personal Approval & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

9 Clinton Approval Consistency & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

10 Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job of dealing with important issues? & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

11 Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job of dealing with important issues? & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

12 Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of the way your Member of Congress is handling his or her job of dealing with important issues? & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

13 Q9 If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote in your district? & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error * Aug-94 through Dec-97 all registered voters

14 Q10a-24a For each issue, do you have more confidence in Pres. Clinton and the Democrats in Congress, or the Republicans in Congress? (split sample A) & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

15 Q10a-24a For each issue, do you have more confidence in Pres. Clinton and the Democrats in Congress, or the Republicans in Congress? (split sample A) & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

16 Q10b-24b For each issue, do you have more confidence in the Democrats in Congress, or the Republicans in Congress? (split sample B) & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

17 Q10b-24b For each issue, do you have more confidence in the Democrats in Congress, or the Republicans in Congress? (split sample B) & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

18 Q25 Which one of the following education issues do you think is the most important facing our schools today? & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

19 Q26 Which one of the following education issues do you think is the second most important facing our schools today? & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

20 Which one of the following education issues do you think is the most important facing our schools today? (combined) & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

21 Q27 Which of the viewpoints on education comes closest to your own? That education spending decisions should be made at the local level, and we should send federal money to states and communities to hire additional teachers, reduce classroom size, crack down on undisciplined students, wire schools with computers or any other priorities that parents and communities deem for their education dollars. That we need a national commitment to quality education for every child in America, as well as state and local involvement. That means establishing tough national standards including zero tolerance for violence in the schools, and a federal priority to invest in reducing class size, modernizing our schools, and increasing the number of qualified teachers. & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

22 Q28 Which one of the following problems facing our health care system do you think is the most important? & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

23 Q29 Which of the viewpoints on Health Care comes closest to your own? That the recently passes Patient Protection act ensures patients a quick, independent review process for appealing medical decisions and guarantees choices in doctors. Unlike the liberal Ted Kennedy alternative, this bill does not increase the cost of care with the heavy hand of big government and an open door for greedy trial lawyers That we need to have a strong Patient Bill of Rights that puts doctors and patients in charge of health care, not insurance company bureaucrats. The Republican bill is a watered-down bill that fails to cover everyone with private health insurance, fails to require that doctors make medical decision, and fails to give patients the right to hold their insurance companies accountable. & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

24 Q30a When you think about national health care reform and health care in America today, which are you more worried about? (Split Sample A) & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

25 Q30b When you think about education reform in American public schools today, which are you more worried about? (Split Sample B) & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

26 Q31 Which of the viewpoints on the federal budget surplus comes closest to your own? That we should put half of the surplus aside to preserve Social Security and send half back to the American taxpayers by cutting taxes so they can have more money to spend as they see fit. That we should use all the surplus to preserve the Social Security system because using the surplus to cut taxes is irresponsible and will harm Social Security for our seniors. & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

27 Q32 Which of the viewpoints on our country’s priorities comes closest to your own? That the most important thing we can do for families is to invest in education. We should establish national school standards, modernize the schools to reduce class size, provide computer technology, and provide tax credits for college education. That the most important thing we can do for families is to cut their taxes. We should abolish the IRS, simplify the tax code, and cut taxes across-the-board so families can keep more of their own hard-earned money and spend it as they see fit. & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

28 Q33 Which of the following statements best describes your feelings about this surplus? & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

29 Q34 How likely would you say it is that you, personally, will use your vote in this fall’s elections to send President Clinton a message about your feelings regarding his conduct in the Monica Lewinsky matter? & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

30 Q35 Thinking about the President’s recent problems and their impact on your decision about who to vote for this fall, which matters more to you? & Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

31 1994 Election Based on 1994 U.S. Census Bureau data

32 1994 Election Based on 1994 U.S. Census Bureau data

33 1994 Election Based on 1994 U.S. Census Bureau data

34 1994 Election--Percent Turnout To Registration Based on 1994 U.S. Census Bureau data

35 Bill Clinton- Job Approval Vs. Personal Approval Job Personal Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

36 Bill Clinton- Approval Job approval Personal approval (among those who approve of job) Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

37 Bill Clinton- Approval Consistency Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error

38 Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error 100% of sample25%30%39%6% Presidential Approval - Turnout Table

39 Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error Party Issue Handling Clinton/GOP DEMs/GOP Sharing Your Values 32 (+1) 45 (+9) 35 (+1) 42 (+9) Protecting Middle Class 47 (+2) 35 (+3) 48 (+3) 31 (+2) Cutting Taxes 32483246 Hold Line On Taxes 34 (+4) 46 (+1) 29 (-2) 52 (+8) America Prosperous 42 (+10) 38 (-5) 34 (+3) 42 (+4) Balance Budget 40 37 35 42 Improve Economy 49 (+14) 35 (-4) 43 (+8) 36 (-5) Creating Jobs 52 (+7) 29 (-3) 49 (+7) 31 (+1) Foreign Affairs 37 (+7) 45 (-1) 32 (+4) 45 (+1) Reforming Welfare 40 (+1) 40 (+5) 40 (-2) Fighting Crime & Drugs 33 (+2) 36 (+1) 30 (+1) 39 (+5) Improving Education 43 (-4) 33 (+2) 4533 (+6) Improving Health Care 48 (+5) 32 (+3) 48 (+3) 27 (-2) StrengthenSocial Security 46314630 Protecting Environment 55 (+3) 22 (-1) 54 (+2) 22 (+2) note: all numbers in percentages

40 Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error 100% of sample43%17%40%+3% Generic Ballot - Turnout Table

41 Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error A full copy of this latest Battleground Survey including; full questionnaire, key charts, graphs, and both Ed Goeas’ Republican Strategic Analysis and Celinda Lake’s Democratic Strategic Analysis are available on-line at WWW.TARRANCE.COM

42 Aug. 23-25 N=1,000 likely voters +3.1% Margin Of Error Celinda Lake’s Conclusions & Recommendations Move the debate away from values Establish theme that Democrats are party that will fight for middle class Energize and mobilize drop-off voters (young non-college women, Hispanics, African Americans) around Democrat issue agenda Take advantage of Democrat credit for economy and prosperity Have a “values” debate on policy - education, health care, social security Social Security debate should be about tax cuts vs. saving S.S. Drive GOP support for “two-tiered” health care system


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