1. Getting Down to Business Jeff Duncan Barry Nangle Mining business data from a registration database

2. Vital Records Revenue Sources FY 1994 FY 2004 *Fee increase, 7/1/2003

3. OLIVER  OLIVER—Online Issuing of Vital Event Records Links State Office, 12 Local registrars and 5 satellites Combines front office (certification) with back office (statistics) Counter, Mail and Internet requests 1,056,925 records issued from 9/1/1999 to 4/15/2004 482,475 unique requests, excluding multiple certificates

4. Certificate Sales by Event and Issuing Office September, 1999 – April, 2004

5. Who Is Buying Birth Certificates? 50% of birth certificates sold within 10 years of birth Almost ¼ of all birth certificates sold within 5 years of birth

6. Certificates Issued to Y2K Birth Cohort 20% were issued birth certificates within 2 months after birth 40% were issued in first year after birth Currently, 53% of Y2K births have been issued birth certificates

7. Social Marketing Implications of Birth Certificate Sales  Parents of 25,000 infants and toddlers contact us for Birth Certificates annually  Child Health programs see a “missed opportunity” for outreach to families  Applications for Integrated Information Systems Potential to reach infants lost to follow-up for newborn hearing screening Immunization reminders

8. Birth Certificate Revenue by Number of Births FY 1998 – FY 2003

9. Effects of Fee Increase—Birth Certificates Fee Increase July 1, 2003 Births went from $12 / $5 to $15 / $8 Initial Copies: 5% decrease in number sold Additional copies: 20% decrease in number sold Revenue increased 21%

10. Time Series Analysis  Multiplicative Decomposition using 5 years of sales data  Y t = T t x C t x S t x I t Quarterly Seasonal Factors QuarterStSt Jul-Sep1.05 Oct-Dec0.81 Jan-Mar1.08 Apr-June1.06

11. Deseasonalized Trend  Deseasonalized trend line (through June, 2003): Y t = 4544 + 49t

12. Other facts  After the fee increase: -The average number of birth certificates per request decreased from 1.66 to 1.45 -The average number of death certificates per request stayed the same at 5.7

13. Conclusions  New births drive new business  Interaction with parents presents a significant public health opportunity  Fee increase hurt sales but not revenues  Use seasonality to adjust expectations, especially after a fee increase