1. Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia Zane Cunska Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies / University of Latvia Presentation in Eurostat/UNECE Work SessionApril 29 2010 / Lisbon

2. Content  Tertiary education in Latvia: facts and situation  Projection methods  Scenarios  Stable enrollment ratio scenario  Global education trend scenario  Crisis scenario  Results  Conclusions

3. Population (15-24y) projections, LV Source: EUROPOP2008, Eutostat

4. Student population in LV  In 2009 for the first time Latvia has experienced significant fall  In total enrolment: : minus 10,2%;  In first year undergraduate: minus 26% in comparison to previous year

5. Age-specific student ratios in LV (1998-2010)

6. Methods  Enrolment-ratio method  Age-specific enrolment ratio E xt =r xt T xt, based on  Eurostat population projections T xt  Ratio development trends r xt  Three development scenarios  Stable enrollment ratio  Global education trend  Crisis

7. Scenarios – Stable enrolment ratio  Tertiary education developing smoothly into the future, only changes arise from the differences in cohort size.  Assumes:  proportion of students in the respective overall age cohort will continue to change in the same average speed and direction as over the previous period (1998-2010)  Transition rates and dropout rates will change at an average annual rate of change experienced in the observation period  ln(Y/Y(t-1)) = alpha/trend i.e., extrapolate the observed trends over the years 1998-2010, using the OLS and putting a constraint that the growth converges to zero when time converges to infinity

8. Scenarios – Stable enrolment ratio  All trends positive or virtually constant  Growth in ratio of younger students (20-23) and non- traditional student age group (29-39)  Proportions of students in 24-28 and 40-plus age groups remain stable at 2010 level Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011- 2020) age-year specific enrolment ratios

9. Scenarios – Stable enrolment ratio  Total number of students in tertiary education will decrease from 113 thousands in 2010 to 92 thousands in 2020 (minus 20%)  Most severe decline in the 18- 24 years student groups – by 44%  Proportion of “traditional” age students will decrease from 64% in 2010 to 44% in 2020,  Size of older age student groups (29-39 and 40 plus) will remain stable  Share of older age students (over 29) will increase from 24% to 44% Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2020) number of students in the tertiary education

10. Scenarios – Global education trend  Takes into account the schooling pattern across European countries and assumes that the lifestyle and study patterns in Latvia and EU converge.  Assumes:  The 2011-2020 enrolment ratio structure for Latvia is converge to that of EU-27  ln(Y/T t-1 ) = B(Y t-1 -Y av )  i.e., the age-specific enrolment rates Y will converge to the EU- 27 average, the speed being dependent on the size of the difference between the rate at t-1 and Y av

11. Scenarios – Global education trend  The enrolment ratios in EU-27 have been gradually raising in period 1998-2005, and stabilized since 2005  They are generally lower that Latvian 2010 rates  Consequently, all but 25 and 26 year-old rate trends are negative Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011- 2100) age-year specific enrolment ratios

12. Scenarios – Global education trend  Decline in enrolment at all ages - minus 38% compared to 2010  Total enrolment in 2020 fall to 1998 level (70 thousand students)  More than 50% reduction in traditional age student numbers (from 72 to 35 thousands).  13% fall (from 17 to 15 thousands) in the older age (29 plus) students  Student population will be older and the proportion of non- traditional students (older than 25) in the total student population will increase to 50% in contrast to 36% in 2010 Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2020) number of students in the tertiary education

13. Scenarios - Crisis  Designed to capture the effects, that do not follow from statistics, but can be concluded from literature on historical development in other countries,  Subjective - author’s and expert opinions based scenario  Broad age groups  Assumes: AgeAssumption 17-24Enrolment rate is at the pre-crisis level (2008) for 3 years, converges to EU- 27 average after 2013. 25-28Enrolment rate increases by 15% compared to 2008 for following 3 years, converges to EU-27 average after 2013. 29 plusEnrolment rate remains constant over following 3 years, converges to EU- 27 average after 2013.

14. Scenarios - Crisis  Crisis would have a short- term positive impact on enrolment rates that will slightly increase above the 2010 level and stay there between 2011 and 2013  Rise in the 25-28 age student enrolment  After the 2013 enrolment rates fall approaching the EU-27 level Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2020) age-year specific enrolment ratios

15. Scenarios - Crisis  Total number of students in the period 2011-2013 would increase compared to 2009 and 2010 level  The total number of young students would not be as high as before  The 25-28 years and 29 plus student group is expected to remain roughly the same size throughout the entire period 2000-2020  Total number of students in 2020 will fall to 81 thousands, less than half (47%) of the students being in the “traditional” age Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2020) number of students in the tertiary education

16. Summary 199820102020 Actual enrolmentSERGETCRI Total70233112555921526943480841 Proportions of age groups in total number of students 17-2473%64%44%50%47% 25-2816%13%12%16%17% 29 plus11%24%44%33%36% Total number of students in tertiary education according to three alternative scenarios

17. Conclusions  HE system in front of big changes  Inexperienced situation  Under any development scenario the total enrolment is very likely to fall (decrease by 18-38%)  The big number of higher education institutions cannot be sustained  Foreign students are unlikely to fully compensate for decrease of cohorts

18. Thank you!