1. The Danish 2007 Election: Why the Social Democrats will win? Or Why the Social Democrats should win Or Why can’t Labour win? NED Seminar, Gothenburg, 1. Nov. 2007

2. Table 1.Prefer tax relief or improved public services, 1994-2007. Percentages and PDI Prefer tax relief Prefer improved welfare DKPDI for welfare 1994(elec)47449-3 1998(elec)41545+13 200038539+15 2001(elec)45524+6 2003 Jan.42534+11 2003 Nov.34615+27 2005 (elec)35614+26 2006 May27703+43 2006 Sep.26722+46 2007 Aug.22735+51 2007 Oct.22735+51

3. The strategy of giving tax relief before the election did not work either… Shortly before the call for the election, the government decided to lower taxes as from 2008. Should the tax relief be revoked so that the money could be spent for more welfare, or should the tax relief be maintained? Revoked59 Maintained37 Don’t know4 Total100

4. Political agenda = welfare Per cent of answers given. Most important problem politicians should handle 1990200120052007 Unemployment293161 Economic problems, business19433 Taxes9458 Environment10347 Welfare20555360 Immigration4231314 Else91067

5. The Social Democrats win on welfare competence image - everywhere Wich government is the best to ensure a well- functioning health care system? BourgeoisSocial demNo diff 1998233443 2001452530 2005384418 2007295318

6. ”Fogh-regeringen er ved at være træt og nedslidt ” Helt eller delvis enig50 % Neutral/Ved ikke7 % Helt eller delvis uenig43 % I alt100 %

7. VOTERS ARE DARK GREEN: ”We should spend much more money on renewable energy, even if it is not fully competitive” Agree81 % Neutral/Don’t know9 % Disagree10 % Total100 %

8. ”Public employees should have considerably higher wage increases than privately employed” Agree55 % Neutral/don’t know13 % Disagree32 % Total100 %

9. Tight immigration policy is about to become a negative issue for the government The government’s tightening of refugee policies … Has gone too far Is appro- Priate Not gone far enough 2001113356 2005275123 2007385012

10. Everything has gone wrong for Anders Fogh Rasmussen Wrong timing of the election A tax vs. Welfare election Contract politics in ruins Tax stop has become unreliable The broad alliance incl. Workers which is the foundation of the government’s majority, is uncertain due to policy change after the election Internal disagreements in the governing coalition Relative agreement among th opposition parties

11. So why doesn’t the Social Democrats win? SF has taken many votes from the Social Democrats. But there is no improvement for the opposition as a whole, even though the opinion climate is the most advantageos ever seen. Will voters eventually follow their attitudes? – or: Is it bad political communication? Is it leadership image? Or is it …

12. Which government do you think would provide most money for yourself? Social Dem. No diff.Bour- geois Diff. 1998313435-4 2001223048-26 2005202852-32 2007202654-34