1. Texas Plant Protection Conference ‘Climate of Change’ International Trade Relations Parr Rosson Professor & Director Center for North American Studies Texas A&M University

2. The Changing Climate of Trade Agroterrorism Animal Disease Outbreaks New Agreements & Disputes

3. U.S. Agricultural Trade, 1970-2005F Source: U.S. Trade Internet System, www.fas.usda.gov/ustrade & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & && & & & & & & & & & & & & ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 19701975198019851990199520002005F $0.0 $10.0 $20.0 $30.0 $40.0 $50.0 $60.0 $70.0 Billion Dollars ExportsImports ! Trade Surplus Shrinks

4. Securing U.S. Infrastructure Border/Trade Infrastructure – 5,252 mile border with Canada – 1,989 mile border with Mexico – 300 Land Ports of Entry-Exit – 95,000 miles Coastline & Waterways – 300 U.S. Seaports – 429 Commercial Airports U.S. Customs/Immigration Agents in Canada & More Ag. Inspectors

5. Agroterror & Protective Response Post CUSTA/NAFTA-Who’s in Charge?? Post CUSTA/NAFTA-Who’s in Charge?? Increased Truck/Rail/Noncommercial Traffic Focus on Drug Interdiction, Expediting Cargo & Illegal Immigration 9/11/01- “Crease In History” 9/11/01- “Crease In History” – U.S. Customs in Charge at Borders Focus on Terrorism, Illegal Immigration, Drugs, Expediting Cargo Focus on Terrorism, Illegal Immigration, Drugs, Expediting Cargo

6. New Agencies & Rules Dept. of Homeland Security – APHIS Inspectors Included – FDA Not Included Bioterrorism Preparedness Act 2002 – Administered by FDA Register Notify Keep Records US Borders ‘Last Line of Defense’ Not First US Borders ‘Last Line of Defense’ Not First

7. Mad Cows & Other Monsters!!

8. BSE (5/20/2003)

9. US Fed Cattle Futures, Nov 03-Jan 04 BSE 12/23/03 *12/7/04

10. U.S. Meat Exports, 1970-May 2004 Source: ERS/USDA 2004 ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) 1970197519801985199019952000 2004 (Jan-May) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 1,000 Metric Tons Broiler Meat Beef Pork ) BSE Boost BSE Decline Russian Ban

11. 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Million Head HogsCattle No Cattle Imports from Canada in 2004

12. US Cattle Imports from Mexico 19701975198019851990199520002004F 0 500 1000 1500 2000 1,000 Head 1,653 1,390 F Annual Avg. 800,000 Head 2004 is CNAS forecast

13. New Agreements U.N. Biosafety Protocol – United States Not a Member Trade Agreements: 8 Approved,8 + Pending WTO Negotiations-Doha Round Trade Agreements w/Chile, Australia, Others

14. Australia ‘04 Bahrain ‘04 CAFTA ‘04 Chile ‘04 FTAA ’06? Morocco ‘04 Southern African Customs Union ‘05 Singapore ‘03 Jordan ‘03 U.S. Trade Agreements-3d Largest Market NAFTA ‘94 Israel ‘85 CUSTA, ‘89 Andean FTA 05 Panama ‘05 Thailand ‘05 MEFTA ‘06

15. World Average Agricultural Tariffs, 2000 115 85 55 40 30 25 12 South Asia Caribbean Islands Central America South America European Union North America United States 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Bound Average World Average 62% Percent

16. Jumping Genes! Frankenfoods!

17. Disputes Mexico Transgenic Maize EU & China GMO Rules U.S./Mexico Water Dispute Anti-dumping Disputes, Mostly NAFTA (lumber & hogs) Canadian Cattle Lawsuit WTO Cotton Case Ruling Due March ‘05

18. Nuevo Leon Tamaulipas LRGV Rio Conchos Amistad Reservoir Falcon Reservoir Presidio Chihuahua Delicias Pecos River Rio Grande Ft. Quitman 65% of Inflows 84% Capacity 37% Capacity Rio Bravo del Norte Tributaries & Reservoirs Boquilla 112/7/04 IBWC

19. Implications Complex, Convoluted Issues Degree of Trade Dependence Determines Potential Severity Disruptions to Trade Managing U.S. Borders Huge Job As Trade Agreements Implemented, Expect More Disputes WTO Cotton Case, Major Farm Program Implications U.S./Mexico Water Dispute Abated, Not Solved

20. Thanks! Parr Rosson Prosson@tamu.edu 979-845-3070 Center for North American Studies “Informed Decisions for Global Change”