1. Client-level Analysis of Emergency Shelters: 1996- 2006 Columbus and Franklin County, Ohio RLUS Steering Committee Presentation December 5, 2006

2. 2 Prepared for the Rebuilding Lives Updated Strategy Steering Committee Prepared by Stephen Metraux, Ph.D. – University of the Sciences in Philadelphia Dennis P. Culhane, Ph.D. – University of Pennsylvania

3. 3 Goals Understand shelter utilization (families and singles) dynamics from 1996 to 2005, including: Trends over time in shelter use (average daily census, prevalence, length of shelter stays) Relationships between shelter exits & housing placements Population Demographics “Churning” analyses - family shelters today (& single adults in February)

4. 4 Data Sources Two administrative data sets: “legacy” data – 1990-2001 HMIS data – 2003-present

5. 5 Average Daily Census – Single Adults Males substantial seasonal fluctuation overall increasing trend in Legacy period (1996-2001) marked decrease 1999-2001 co-occurring with increases in supportive housing placements overall “flat” trend for HMIS period (2003-2006) Females less seasonal fluctuation smaller bed capacity steady increase in Average Daily Census in both Legacy & HMIS periods

6. 6 ADC for Single Adult Households

7. 7 Average Daily Census - Families substantial seasonal fluctuation overall declining trend in Legacy period (1996- 2001) diversion policies in family shelters adopted in 1999 co-occur with decreased Average Daily Census overall “flat” trend for HMIS period (2003-2006) size of families households appear to increase over time during HMIS period

8. 8 Average Daily Census for Family Households

9. 9 “Front Door” & “Back Door” Dynamics “Front Door” (i.e., changes in entries to shelter) “Back Door” (i.e., changes in exits from shelter)

10. 10

11. 11 Shelter Exits, Housing, & Shelter Return Exits from shelter to housing following successful program completion: Families – 57% Single Adults – Males 15%; Females 31% Repeat shelter stay subsequent to shelter exit: Families – 10% Single Adults – Males 37%; Females 26%

12. 12 Shelter Exits, Housing, & Shelter Return – Regression Findings The longer the shelter episode, the higher the odds for a household (single adult or family) to exit to a housing placement; Income increases the odds of receiving a housing placement upon exit, wages increased odds 5-fold. Housing placement was strongest factor in reducing the hazards of repeat shelter stay Among families, repeat shelter stays are a relatively rare event.

13. 13 Single Adult Demographics – Annual Prevalence and % Male Single Adults - MaleSingle Adults - Female N (% total population) 19974159 (87.2%)610 19984297 (86.4%)678 19994063 (85.3%)702 20003795 (83.2%)767 20033754 (77.0%)1122 20044025 (76.8%)1218 20053885 (76.2%)1211

14. 14 Single Adult Demographics – Median Age Single Adults - MaleSingle Adults - Female Median Age in years 199738.036.0 199838.436.9 199939.337.3 200040.236.6 200341.338.0 200441.838.9 200542.639.2

15. 15 Single Adult Demographics – Race & Ethnicity Single Adults - MaleSingle Adults - Female % African/American 199759.0%57.3% 199860.6%57.3% 199960.5%58.4% 200058.5%59.4% 200360.0%56.7% 200459.3%57.1% 200560.3%56.8% % Hispanic 20033.9%2.1% 20044.1%1.4% 20053.8%1.7%

16. 16 Family Demographics – Annual Prevalence & Percent Male Head of HouseholdAdult Family Members Child Family Members Total (% male) 19971,563 (13.4%) 19981,091 (14.4%) 1999 533 (18.0%) 2000621 (17.1%) 2003747 (12.5%)935 (23.2%)1,577 (49.8%) 2004717 (12.8%)922 (25.2%) 1,558 (51.4%) 2005705 (14.5%) 914 (25.1%)1,582 (50.3%)

17. 17 Family Demographics – Median Age Head of HouseholdAdult Family Members Child Family Members Median Age in years 199731.6 199831.7 199930.8 200031.3 200330.330.46.6 200430.731.06.5 200529.930.36.4

18. 18 Demographics of Sheltered Population – Family Households #3 Head of HouseholdAdult Family Members Child Family Members % African/American 199756.9% 199865.9% 199965.7% 200064.4% 200367.9%66.6%75.0% 200469.2%67.1%73.1% 200570.9%69.2%75.5% % Hispanic 20031.9%2.3%2.4% 20042.8%2.9%4.6% 20052.7% 3.5%

19. 19 Other Characteristics of Sheltered Family Households 20032004 2005 Employed Heads of Household (%)14.0%15.6%15.2% Family Size (average)3.4 3.5 Number of Children in Family (average)2.1 2.2

20. 20 Movement Across Shelters Within Episodes - Families Out of 2,175 different shelter episodes, 589 (27.1%) episodes involved two shelters; and 13 (0.6%) involved 3 shelters. 97.1% of the shelter episodes – all but 63 of all the episodes – originated at the YIHN program; all but four multiple shelter episodes originated at YIHN.

21. 21 Next Steps Cluster analysis Income patterns Integrate inventory findings with utilization findings Intra-episode movement analysis for single adults

22. 22 Questions or Comments? Contact: Stephen Metraux, Ph.D. Department of Health Policy and Public Health University of the Sciences in Philadelphia 600 South 43 rd Street Philadelphia PA 19104-4495 Tel: (215) 596-7612 Fax: (215) 596-7614 Email: s.metraux@usip.edu